BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

First Majestic Silver Corp

(AG – NYSE)
Price $24
52-week Average $27 - $3.70
   
Earns Per Share
   
2010 37¢
2011 E $1.10+
2012 E $0.80 – 1.35 – 1.50
Total Shares Outstanding 102,000,000
Market Cap $2,500,000,000
Book Value $2.50

Statistical Background

Income Statement Analysis & Financial Review(June 2011)

In the first quarter, revenues were $55.3 million vs $17.7 million in the prior year; an increase of 211% year to year. Gross margin widened 35%, on higher revenues. Selling, general and administrative grew 108%, and operating income for the quarter was $29.4 million vs $0.9 million in the prior-year period. Income before taxes was $32.8 million vs $590,000. Income taxes were $8.9 million, against $148,000 for last year, and net income was $23.9 million ($0.23 a share) vs. $442,000 (nil per share0 in the first quarter of 2010.

Key Operation Information

The increase in revenues in primarily attributable to a 99% increase in average revenue per ounce sold and 36% increase in ounces of silver equivalents sold compared to the first quarter of 2010. Smelting and refining charges and metal deductions also decreased to 4% of gross revenue in the first quarter of 2011 compared to 5% of gross revenue in the fourth quarter of 1010, due to the rate of increased in silver prices exceeding smelting and refining charges in the production of silver. In the first quarter of 2011, the company sold 1,762,123 ounces of silver equivalent at an average price of $32.60 per ounce compared to 1,298,659 ounces of silver equivalent I nthe first quarter of 2010 at an average price of $16.73 per ounce, representing an increase of 36% in shipments over the same quarter in 2010 and an increase of 4% compared to 1,690,741 ounces of silver equivalent in the fourth quarter shipments of 2010.

Recent Developments

Total production for the fisrt quarter of 2011 was 1,825,366 ounces of silver equivalents consisting of 1,769,206 ounces of silver, 351 ounces of gold, and 1,187,912 pounds of lead. Silver equivalent production increased 10% compared to the 1,618,403 ounces of silver equivalents produced in first quarter of 2010, which consisted of 1,409,825 ounces of silver, 857 ounces of gold and 2,542,071 pounds of lead.

World Mine Production and Reserves

 

  Mine Production Reserves
  2009 2010  
United States 1,250 1,280 25,000
Australia 1,630 1,700 69,000
Bolivia 1,300 1,360 22,000
Canada 600 700 7,000
Chile 1,300 1,500 70,000
China 2,900 3,000 43,000
Mexico 3,550 3,500 37,000
Peru 3,850 4,000 120,000
Poland 1,200 1,200 69,000
Russia 1,400 1,400 N/A
Other Countries 2,620 2,600 50,000
World Total (rounded)
510,000
21,800 22,200

 

Andrew      First Majestic is among the first corporation about which I had one thought. You are one of the few people in the world to whom the movie, “The Billion Dollar Sure Thing” is applicable.. Do you remember that movie?
Keith   No, I don’t – sorry.
Andrew   Michael Caine played it. It was about silver in India and Sir James Goldsmith manipulated the world silver. One of my favorites. Do you have a short history with First Majestic?
Keith   I’m not sure it’s short – it’s been 10 years.
Andrew   But you’re not the Guggenheims. Can I ask you – when did you first think that your silver company will have some phenomenal success potentially multi-hundred million dollar reserves and at that time you could say it is only the beginning.
Keith   When I was putting together in 2002 and 2003.
Andrew   What did you have in mind at that time?
Keith   I thought that we would see at least the old highs in silver but most likely substantially higher. They forget that 10 years ago silver was 450 per ounce. The news of today it is $40 per ounce. We have about $2.5 billion market value.
Andrew   And what did you see for your company?
Keith   We have created one of the largest silver companies in the world.
Andrew   That was your determination?
Keith   That’s correct.

 

Income Statement Analysis (M $)
  2010 2009 2008
Revenue 121 59.5 44.3
Operating Income 55.2 10.6 0.56
Net Income 36.1 6.30 5.14
       
Bal Sheet & Other Financial Data (M $)
Cash 40.9 6.49 17.4
Current Assets 62.1 20.1 33.9
Total Assets 321 262 231
Current Liabilities 14.0 15.3 34.9
Long Term Debt 2.82 3.88 1.90
Common Equity 256 199 158
Total Capital 34.8 33.4 40.1
Cash Flow 45.5 9.80 -7.58

 

Andrew       And did you ever think that you would have such a tremendous break in Silver Prices?

Keith

  Well obviously I am an optimist and that’s how I spent my life and I try to be optimistic at all times and it is difficult some time to stick to your beliefs and from 2002/2003 when I put the company together, there was a lot of challenges on the way, There were lots of times, through 2006 thru 2008 into 2009 where just as a human being you sometimes doubt whether you were right in taking the path that you took, but I was very convicted and believed in myself and believed in my ideas and stuck t my guns and I’m always thinking that there would be – that I would be right at the end of the day, and now we just happened to be in an environment where everything is now coming together and it is appearing that the strategy that I put in place early on was the right strategy and the company is on its way of being one of the largest silver producers in the world. That is what we set out to be in. It’s great that we’re finally seeing that success.
Andrew   Okay. There are – I apologize saying – there are many individuals who build a company and achieve their objectives. You had a tremendous break with the rapid rise of gold and silver.
Keith   It wouldn’t have taken that in the final stage. When you say we had a break – you know, I suppose if you talk about the share price, yeah, sure the share price was what it was - it’s gone up a lot – I haven’t personally benefited from the share price moving up; I know a lot of our shareholders have personally benefited. When I look at a $20 stock on the screen I take great pride in that, but this is just the beginning and I’m not even close to looking at taking a profit for myself. But if the individual shareholders decide to do that, that’s fine and that’s why we build businesses. That’s why I built a business – to make profit for people, to create wealth and create employment. And that’s what I am getting excited about and that’s why I go to work everyday.
Andrew   Now, at the moment, let’s just add up where we are. You have 3 producing silver mines; two are under development and quarterly positive cash flow – almost $30 million. Correct?
Keith   Yeah, around that. Our financials will be out in a couple of weeks.
Andrew   “However, this is not the end
This is not the beginning of the end
But this is
The End of the Beginning!”

Your friend Robert McEwan predicted $200 per ounce of silver.

Now, like everybody else, I watch Steve Jobb on television. He introduces a new product every 7 days so he is often on television and he has $70 billion and he never talks for a minute of the past, but always what he is going to do next. You are similar to him.

Keith      I’m not the right person to answer that question.
Andrew   You have a silver production at this moment – approximately 8 million ounces a year, correct?
Keith   7 ½ million ounces of silver this year. 8 million equivalent ounces.
Andrew   And 3 or 4 years from now your mines may produce double of that – 15 million – correct?
Keith   Around 16
Andrew   Now 16 million ounces at $40 is $650M and production. If your cost is $6.00 per ounce, you profit is $34. 16 million is $8,594 million net profit – an equivalent is $5.00 per share.
Keith   Is a lot of money ($300 million)
Andrew   It’s a lot of money and a lot more – probably 80% is surplus unless you are going on a shopping spree or something like that. A large part – like Apple Computer – the money stays as a surplus.
Keith   Yeah – that’s true. Yeah.
Andrew   What it means is that your company belongs to those individuals in the 21st Century who deliver a service or product that everybody wants and accumulates, money that many European countries don’t have to take. Something – when you went to college, did you think that this was possible?
Keith   Even earlier than that.

 

Sub-industry: Precious Metals & Minerals Peer Group
  Stock Symbol Stk Market Cap (M)
Recount Stk ($)      
First Majestic Silver AG 2,135 20.79
Endeavour Silver EXX 641 10.00
Gold Resource GORD 1,218 22.98
Hecle Mining HL 2,234 6.00
Silvercorp Metals SVM 1,884 10.77

 

Andrew      Did you think that they are going to become in Canada, America, Europe or Brazil that you will have more cash than individual countries?
Keith   I’m not sure if I actually went through that thinking process.
Andrew   Well okay – if you take the next five years of First Majestic and calculate a $40 silver price as an average, you will have I calculated over $500 million cash flow a year. Now what would you do with it? After all in 4 years you will have $2 billion.
Keith   Well we’re going to pay some out as a dividend. I’d like to commence dividends in the 1st quarter of 2012. I think it a good time to start doing that. We got requested that by shareholders on a regular basis and I think it’s a good strategy – we’re seeing that more and more in this sector, and the mining sector is obviously one of the best performing sectors on the planet and has been that way for the past few years and I expect will continue to be going forward for the next several years. It would be nice to give some of that back to the shareholders.
Andrew   You have to bring in some politics. We live in an age when companies like you and Apple Computer and several others have hundreds of millions of dollars and actually can look for the day when they have a billion dollars and meanwhile there is a tremendous amount of debt. All over the world including or particularly in the United States. Now did this picture emerge?

 

  USA AG  
Deficit $15,000,000,000 Cash surplus (2018) 500,000,000
Population $300,000,000 Shares outstanding 100,000,000
Per Capita ($50,000) Cash per share $4

Where is the American Dream?

 

Keith      Bad decisions by politicians.
Andrew   I think that businessmen like yourself or Donald Trump or you know several other people, can see the world we live in today much more realistically than elected politicians.
Keith   Well they are far from leaders but they think they’re leaders but they’re a different type of individual. Politicians are leaders.
Andrew   Well Nixon’s mother always called him a leader. But anyhow – in other words, do we live in a time when the very fact that instead of 1 ½ billion people work, 5 billion people work. When I left Hungary in 1956 there was only about 1 ½ in the world worked. Today has 5 eventually 6, 7 billion people working – they will see intelligent businessmen like yourself, who is in a key position with a key commodity namely silver – would be in a very good position to explain to the world that the politics have to change.
Keith   Well I hope that’s the case. So far it hasn’t been.
Andrew   I mean, look – I always believed in silver by the way and gold even from the age of 7 after the War. But, I never for a minute believed that the United States would have a $15 trillion debt. To me America when I was 6 or 12 or 18 was an incredible big power and solidity – and then as I conducted my profession as a securities analyst all over the world, I came across with silver actually with the Hunt family in 1975/76 and then I see today, that responsible, intelligent people become powerful individuals. Do you understand that today you have a great deal of power?
Keith   I don’t really think of myself like that.
Andrew   Why not?
Keith   I guess I’m not egocentric.
Andrew   You don’t think that maybe the country will call on you to access and show your judgment and hard work and diligence as an example to the current state of affairs.
Keith   I doubt it. You’re assuming that politicians actually care!
Andrew   Well let me tell you, Trump is on television almost every day and he is very popular and he cares.
Keith   He is not a politician.
Andrew   No, but – he could be.
Keith   If he wanted to, he could become unpopular.
Andrew   He would be unpopular? Well anyhow – well take – you know, people like Rupert Murdoch – okay – I mean he’s a business man, very successful, controls a lot of money and he is taking part in politics. In any case, as head of First Majestic, you may have another role thrown at you. What happens if companies or countries start marketing silver backed bonds?
Keith   Well it’s another paper device and I wouldn’t trust it.
Andrew   You wouldn’t trust it? You don’t think the Italians would rather buy your paper than their own currency?
Keith   Silver is not paper.
Andrew   Silver-backed bonds by First Majestic would be – well you call it a paper or not a paper –
Keith   You didn’t say by First Majestic; you said you were a government selling silver backed bonds.
Andrew   Yes, suppose the government – what would be your reaction?
Keith   I wouldn’t trust it I would think it would just be a piece of paper.
Andrew   So, let me ask you this – this big rise in gold and silver which is likely to continue, what is the benefit for the future?
Keith   The benefit of rising prices?
Andrew   Well gold is $1,500 and ounce; not $35.
Keith   It creates and wealth in nations that previously didn’t have the wealth and hopefully as the world wealthifies and becomes equal around the planet, that we have better systems in place to make a better planet for the population of the planet. Because right now we have too much power concentrated in too small hands, and that’s a result of the wealth not being evenly distributed.
Andrew   So your conception of your role in life which is going to be recorded in history, that you create tremendous wealth – everybody can buy your stock, if it appreciates they have more money and you create wealth when governments decrease – where jobs suffers.
Keith   Well I wasn’t tying that correlation to the government. Your question was what is the benefit of rising metal prices and I was telling you that the benefit of rising metal prices is the wealthifying of the planet – bringing wealth to areas of the planet that otherwise didn’t have wealth previously. Which is a benefit for the human race.
Andrew   Now the more silver and gold producers succeed and the stock goes up more people can achieve financial benefits, financial independence by virtue of their intelligence following you.
Keith   Okay
Andrew   Correct?
Keith   Yeah – I suppose – you’re drawing an analogy toward the share price which and I’m drawing an analogy towards the metal price, I think the metal price itself affects more people than the share price and that’s why I was focusing on the metal price, but I guess on a smaller scale the share price would have a similar effect.
Andrew   Now after the war, I remember in Europe any in most nations people had were crushed down and disappeared. And, it took me – well how many years – I was 24 when I immigrated to the United States and I saw the so-called Kennedy prosperity that was almost unheard of – at that time if you worked hard and saved money, you would come to a better and better position. Now, the last 10 or 15 years came, and particularly the American government started to go to war with every country they could see, and spent money and as a result again, people were losing their net worth. I am sitting at the moment in Southampton which is supposed to be the wealthiest part of New York State and many houses are empty. That’s a decline. At the same time people who believed in gold and silver, they believed you, they believed First Majestic, they have had an increase in their net worth.
Keith   That’s correct.
Andrew   So in other words, you did play a historic role in a very negative period of what you call Western Civilization.
Keith   Okay.
Andrew   What will happen next?
Keith   For the company?
Andrew   The company, the shareholders, the world. What is the four items I picked up.
Keith   Well I don’t have a crystal ball but I could be optimistic, and I could hope what happens next and then we could have a replacement of the current system that we have today. That was adopted after World War II and that financial system I think has proven not to be effective and we need to re-write the financial rules on how the planet operates and over time as politicians may educate themselves or as countries fail and go bankrupt, new systems are forced to replace old systems, I would hope that the new systems that come in place will be much better than the previous system because it is obvious that the current system doesn’t work and we have a Fiat system in place now which has allowed governments to run havoc on budgets and created politicians that will have no care about the amount of deficits or money they are spending because there is really no checks and balances in place and so on, so the new system we hopefully will get rid of the Fiat system that we are in right now and replace with a completely new system but it is not something that is going to happen tomorrow. This is something that is going to take probably another 20 or 30 years to evolve and so on.
Andrew   Now let me finish that I really hope you become an historic figure and that some of your colleagues will be historic figures. The most colorful example I can tell you is that 30 years ago I wrote an article – the title was “Gold and The Polish Debt” and I mentioned that Bunker Hunt may be nominated for a Nobel prize in economics. And it so happened that I ran into him at the Carlyle Hotel when I published it– and had breakfast with him the following day and I have to admit he was right in everything. He was right in all his thinking and what’s happened in 30 years – a few responsible people like yourself, came into prominence as a businessman and you have a certain amount of control of a segment of our new monetary system, as I call it. And the question is, what would circumstances create and what answer and improvement you will add to the system so more people than your shareholders benefit from your activities.
Thanks
If AG accumulates $2B – First Majestic and you personally, Keith Neumeyer will be making history. In 1980, the system destroyed Bunker Hunt. It took 30 years for silver to create AG and you have cleared the reputation of those who believe in silver.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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It"s A Gold Story"

Posted May 15, 2006

"Ken Lay's Legacy"
Posted May 8, 2006

"The Principal Guest Was Missing"
Posted April 25, 2006

"J.P. Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
Posted April 11, 2006

"Pocketful Of
Miracles"

Posted April 8, 2006 

"Midway Gold
Corporation
"
Posted March 23, 2006 

"Harvest Gold"
Posted March 2, 2006 
 
"Sparton Resources"
Posted March 1, 2006 

"Interview with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation
"
Posted February 22, 2006 

 
"A Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani
"
Posted February 15, 2006
 
"Your Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.

Posted February 9, 2006

"Other People"s Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
Posted January 28, 2006

"Northern Star Mining"
Posted January 16, 2006 
 
"Sonesta International Hotels Corporation"
Posted December 29, 2005 

"The Currency of Mass Destruction"
Posted December 5, 2005
 
"Bunker Hunt-Silver-China"
Posted November 28, 2005

"50 Relatives Worse Than Yours"
Posted November 14, 2005

"Then And Now"
Posted November 9, 2005 

"The Business of Hungary is Business!"
Posted October 31, 2005

"Mr. Prime Minister"
Posted October 13, 2005
 
"U.S. Gold Corp."
Posted September 29, 2005

"Orezone"
Posted September 23, 2005

"Mr Clarke -
Call In The Boys"

Posted September 12, 2005
 
"A Letter To
President Bush"

Posted September 8, 2005

"Mr. Smith Goes To Hungary"
Posted September 1, 2005
 
"Orko Gold"
Posted August 18, 2005

 "Near Hit"
Posted August 16, 2005

"An African Queen"
Posted August 11, 2005

"1848 and Beyond"
Posted August 4, 2005

 

 

Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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