BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

H. Hunt

The Son of Bunker Hunt

Is talking about the world of

Indexed Bonds
Greece, Egypt and Africa
Uganda and Zimbabwe

Silver at $200

His conclusion: The price of Silver will Fluctuate!

Paraphrase from Bernard Baruck 

   
Racz Recently Robert McEwan the head of US Gold and the founder of Gold Corp. said on American television that gold will go to $5,000 and silver will go to $200. Now, how does that remark appeal to you?
   
Hunt To me? I haven’t really thought about it. I suppose it is possible, but not in the near term.
   
Racz Tell me – what does it mean for the monetary system if silver is $200?
   
Hunt It means that no one has any confidence in the paper currency.
   
Racz $200 for silver – nobody else in the paper currency – so what will happen in Dallas, TX when you wake up tomorrow and silver is $200.
   
Hunt I don’t know – it will be a very difficult time for all sorts of economies around the world at that point because they will be adjusting their monetary policy accordingly. It will be like Texas in its early days. They had paper they printed currency on and the paper was actually worth less after they printed on it than it was before.
   
Racz But look, after the Second World War, for instance in Germany they printed the new Deutschemark and it was economically a very bullish step. So why isn’t high priced gold and silver bullish for the economy?
   
Hunt Well the – typically though after, for instance in the 1930s in Germany as you know they had this huge amount of inflation and the currency was worth nothing. I was in Uganda just after a Civil War back in the early 80’s and a poor British fellow was turning in his sterling to get his Ugandan pounds is what they were and a hundred British pounds turned into just gobs of paper in Ugandan pounds because no one had any confidence in it. And, so, it is really a matter of confidence.
   
Racz But the Ugandan economy survived.
   
Hunt It did, it did.
   
Racz So did Zimbabwe.
   
Hunt Eventually you still have a country. Uganda still has crops and they have oil now and the people in Zimbabwe still have crops; they produce something people want and so therefore they may sell those crops for some sort of a currency whether it be onw that’s traditional like a dollar or a Euro or Swiss Franc or they may sell it for a barter basis for clothes.
   
Racz In other words, let’s say if we have precious metal which is declared the currency, certain paper money like the Swiss Franc can move with it and also survive. And others like the Lira may not survive.
   
Hunt That may be true.
   
Racz And that would affect world trade.
   
Hunt It clearly would. But on the other hand if Italy got to where no one wanted the Lira, and if Italy wanted to buy something from outside their country and they didn’t have anything for it that they could offer anybody, then their goods and services – then the Lira drops. Their goods and services get very cheap to buy. Their labor source gets very cheap to buy. To import things becomes incredibly expensive for Italy to import something from Germany or from France, but now you’ve got this Euro in place and that’s the problem Greece had. Greece had a terrible problem because it used to be in the old days that if the Greek currency declined, they simply bought less of the outside products and what they produced went down in value. We took a trip to Greece about 1980 and my dad told me that the number one source of income for the country of Greece is tourism and the number two source of income is United States Social Security. Now I don’t know if that is still true or not 31 years later, but I wouldn’t be surprised, because when you think about it, what does Greece produce?
   
Racz Just as currencies change gradually, so does gold and silver – okay – now you can look it up – less than two years ago January 2010, silver was if I am correct, less than $10. Now it is $40– it was almost $50 for a short time in April – who benefited from this trend and what did trend create?
   
Hunt Oh, gosh. That’s a great question – who benefited. Obviously the people that hold silver. I suppose the people it hurt would be the people that consume silver, and so umm I don’t know what then is the trend. When something goes up by that many – 3 ½ fold in a fairly short period of time, it’s hard to figure why.
   
Racz But it did. And there are people predicting that silver may go to $70 on this trend which would be double. But during that time you said okay people who own silver coins or silver bullion made money. But a number of mining companies made an enormous amount of money. Fist Majestic for instance and Great Panther – Heckla Mining – they all accumulated cash and continued business as before. In other words they made money, stockholders made money, and users of silver lost some money. But there is something missing that during this time – let’s say from $6 silver to $40 silver was not monetized. In other words we did not create any new – what you call – silver related bonds or paper which is manifold amount of value that silver was put on the market in any one year. What I am saying is if you produce let’s say, a million ounces of silver in 2011, we could actually float $50 million. Is that something you’ve ever thought about?
   
Hunt You know it’s possible. I have never actually spent much time thinking about it. We’ve gone off the gold standard which is the same I guess to some degree as silver standard. People simply have gotten used to simply having the dollar disconnected from precious metals and that’s why you have gold at $1,800. When Nixon entered the White House gold was at $35.
   
Racz Let me concentrate on just two points. #1 – if you remember the expression – we have numbers in television poll – correct?
   
Hunt Yes
   
Racz The first time – I was young in the country – it was a television poll. Now Greece is a television monetary crisis.
   
Hunt Well that’s an interesting idea.
   
Racz I tell you, I have to go to Mongolia in the next few week.
   
Hunt Oh, wow.
   
Racz I added up the cost and you know, it’s quite meaningful.
   
Hunt Oh, yes.
   
Racz And I could say if it was available that – suppose I postponed the trip for 3 months and meanwhile, the cost of the trip doubled. So in order to hedge against it, if I quote – if there were available silver related bond, I would buy it and I would not be affected too much that the cost of the trip doubles. Because I am in a hard currency paper. Okay. And, also it – but there are no silver related bonds available on a big scale today. You cannot buy them. You can buy silver coins and silver doubles, of course the trip doubles, you dump the coins and you are…. But there is no convenient silver related bonds.
   
Hunt I did not know that.
   
Racz There is however the ETF – silver ETF. But that goes dollar for dollar. Silver related bonds can be 10 to 1 leverage.
   
Hunt Ahhh…
   
Racz So, for instance, you know – you have a family – you have children in college …
   
Hunt I have one just finishing – that’s going to be finishing some post graduate work here – everyone else is out of school.
   
Racz Well one year in college – you know how much it costs….
   
Hunt Certainly
   
Racz Now so if silver related bonds you could buy them, you hedge against the future and it could be – I mean if ETF is used on the stock exchange buying and selling, bonds could be. So it’s a form of currency which – the value is tied to silver – but at the same time, the actual volume can increase 10 fold because it is a related paper and if you could buy and sell it on the stock exchange, you could preserve your buying power. And you go – put it this way – you would go with it. You would upgrade yourself. You’re in the silver market and not in the dollar market.
   
Hunt I understand. I understand.
   
Racz Is it something that is plausible.
   
Hunt I suppose it would be. The biggest problem is you’ve got to find someone willing to market it for you. Whether that be a brokerage house or something of that nature that you know …
   
Racz Look. When was it – 10 years ago, there were very few ETFs. Very few. Today Barons filled up two pages, the Wall Street Journal one page. There- the ETF is all – the ETF is every kind of ETF. Agriculture, Russian, various Chinese ETFs, Oil, India, Silver, Gold. There are millions of them. Now, but again, I said it is dollar for dollar. And if somebody sells silver ETF it basically puts silver on the market, it buys it, takes silver away from market. At the same time, if an underwriter takes a million ounce of silver and issues – not $35 but $250 million worth of silver related bonds, they will not affect the market when you buy and sell, but the purchasing power would remain – if you believe that silver is not going to go down. And then you create a special monetary markets. If there are silver coins, why not silver bonds?
   
Hunt Yeah. Yeah. That’s actually an interesting concept. An interesting concept. I’ve never thought about it.
   
Racz So, this is how the monetary system could change. Gradually more bonds, more people buy silver bonds than bonds issued by General Motors or Chrysler.
   
Hunt It could be. It could very well be. You’ve got to make people comfortable enough that there really is the silver behind the bond. And, that’s the – one of the issues that is always the difficult time. It’s a matter of confidence. You know, right now, if you could imagine 3 years ago, someone had confidence in Greek Debt, today no one does. Six months ago people had confidence in US Debt. Today people aren’t so confident.
   
Racz It could be. It could very well be. You’ve got to make people comfortable enough that there really is the silver behind the bond. And, that’s the – one of the issues that is always the difficult time. It’s a matter of confidence. You know, right now, if you could imagine 3 years ago, someone had confidence in Greek Debt, today no one does. Six months ago people had confidence in US Debt. Today people aren’t so confident.
   
Racz So, look – okay – well what about Chrysler debt?
   
Hunt Chrysler debt is another good example. It is really to some degree it’s when someone steps up and says I just don’t believe it’s real. Ummm…at that point – it’s sort of like yelling fire in a crowded theater, people get hurt even if there is no fire. Once there is no confidence in a Greek debt, everyone rushes to the door at the same time, Greece has a problem with confidence. I – it will be interesting if the United States misses a debt payment by definition it will no longer be a AAA-rated bond and a lot of institutions whether the insurance companies or whatever, have to be invested in AAA-rated paper at least a certain percentage, so that will force them to sell. The Federal Reserve will have to sit there and buy money by the bucket full to…
   
Racz Now we have at the moment a fear of government. Now if you make tomorrow a telephone call to Steve Jobs, Apple Computer has $50 billion and ask him where he keeps his money. And if he says, well – we bought I don’t know – silver backed bonds, what would be the affect on the market?
   
Hunt It would be very bullish I am sure.
   
Racz Now let me turn to another last subject which is also…look – there are many small silver related companies. Exploration companies, correct?
   
Hunt Right.
   
Racz Now, let’s create not only a typical but big example. Today I think I can state the biggest undeveloped part of the world is Africa.
   
Hunt Probably true, yes.
   
Racz And Africa has many metals and enormous exploration, foreign money and so on. Now what would happen to this world, if prices remain as high or go higher, not only in silver, but copper, gold, etc. And the markets will monetize the reserves. Give monetary value to the reserves. Suddenly, the GNP of Africa will probably go up 3-fold. Do you agree?
   
Hunt It very well could, I suppose. The problem I have in Africa though is that there is no – once again – very few people there have been able to hang on to a mineral reserve any length of time. Because of the political problems that go with it. There is no real clear … so often these countries have no real clear understanding of title and ownership.
   
Racz I go along. Africa is undeveloped. They have enormous reserves and if they get monetary values there will be an enormous influx of money to Africa and you know what – the West would have to pay for it.
   
Hunt That’s probably true.
   
Hunt Yeah. Yeah.
   
Racz And that could be a tremendous tragedy for the United States.
   
Hunt That could be. We definitely – it would be very expensive to import. You know, the other side of it is if you have a true, huge supply there, maybe it lowers the price. Because you have a new source that hasn’t been there at this point.
   
Racz That’s true. But the world population expands also.
   
Hunt That’s true.
   
Racz And even if you monetize all the assets and drop them 30% or even 50%, it still would be a tremendous imbalance of payment from the United States, Canada and Europe to Africa and for the benefit of various African states.
   
Hunt Okay. Okay. It would definitely benefit a lot of people there in Africa, no question about it.
   
Racz So, look – in closing, even if it is not 200 okay – the rise of silver price is going to change Western Civilization.
   
Hunt It will change it no question. There is no two ways about it. There is always change. When things are difficult monetarily, there is always change. Because people are dissatisfied. You saw what is happening now in what is called the Arab Spring in Tunisia and Egypt and now what is going on in Libya, and Yemen ,Syria and Bahrain. It is a very unsettling time. And I was in Egypt about 3 weeks before the government fell not realizing there was a single problem in the world, and I was there right at the first of the year on vacation with my family, and the tour guide that took us around said at one point there were 77 different pharaohs in charge of the country in 77 days. Because it was a time of terrible famine and people just revolted and storming the palace and threw out the last people. Well if you have that kind of dissatisfaction then people will throw out – as they say, throw the bums out and bring in somebody new.
   
Racz Look – the Belgian Congo of course is famous for copper and zinc, cobalt. I don’t know whether they have silver or not. Uganda has silver. Price is up. Money flows to Uganda and you know what, the Egyptians either starve or have to pay to Uganda for whatever they want to buy.
   
Hunt That’s true.
   
Racz And the West has no money to help Egypt any more.
   
Hunt I think that’s also probably true.
   
Racz Well – I think I will end it but ….Did I tell you what is today the most unusual news I got on television.
   
Hunt What is that?
   
Racz You know the Chinese prime minister Mr. Wen, was in the West, in Europe for a few days.
   
Hunt Right.
   
Racz And he announced of all the countries, he is putting Chinese money behind Hungary.
   
Hunt Is that right?
   
Racz I never thought I’d live that day again – but he said he is putting the money back in Hungary. So I’m going back to see whether my little family holdings in real estate could prosper.
   
Hunt Good – good I hope they do, sir.
   
Racz Look – thanks very much.
   
Hunt My pleasure, Andrew.
   
   

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

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