Andrew-Racz.com


"1848 and Beyond"
posted August 4, 2005

"An African Queen"
posted August 11, 2005

"Near Hit"
posted August 16, 2005

"Orko Gold"
posted August 18, 2005

"Mr. Smith Goes To Hungary"
posted September 1, 2005

"A Letter To
President Bush"

posted September 8, 2005

"Mr Clarke -
Call In The Boys"

posted September 12, 2005

"Orezone"
posted September 23, 2005

"U.S Gold Corp."
posted September 29, 2005

"Mr. Prime Minister"
posted October 13, 2005

"The Business of Hungary is Business!"
posted October 31, 2005

"Then And Now"
posted November 9, 2005

"50 Relatives Worse Than Yours"
posted November 14, 2005

"Bunker Hunt-Silver-China"
posted November 28, 2005

"The Currency of Mass Destruction"
posted December 5, 2005

"Sonesta International Hotels Corporation"
posted December 29, 2005

"Northern Star Mining"

posted January 16, 2006


"Other People's Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
posted January 28, 2006

"Your Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.

posted February 9, 2006

"A Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani
"
posted February 15, 2006

"Interview with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation
"

posted February 22, 2006

 

  Andrew Racz  

Articles by Andrew Racz 

 

"Orko Gold: It’s a Silver Story"

 

A Silver Story for the 21st Century

“My son and I are buying sound silver stocks.”


—a possible quote from Herbert Hunt
of Dallas, Texas, in August 2005

 

Orko has five characteristics that makes it interesting or, rather, potentially interesting for the stock market.

1. It is a silver exploration company in Mexico and, on August 9th, the company announced hybrid silver-gold find for the length of 880 meters in length with recent mapping that trace multiple mineralized veins for over five kilometers, and is open to north as well as south.

“Drill results continue to increase the known strike at La Preciosa, now over 880 meters in length. To date, each Orko Gold drill hole has encountered multiple mineralized veins. Known structure and recent mapping has traced the La Preciosa system for over 5.0 kilometres (km) and is open to north and south. Drilling furthest to the north of the system shows the structure is still very much intact and structurally sound.

“Gary Cope, President of Orko Gold, says: ‘Orko Gold is getting a much better picture of the overall potential of the La Preciosa vein package. I am pleased by continued mineralization proven in drilling along trend. I am also very pleased to see the La Preciosa strike length has increased by a further 200 m with results from only two holes. The sound structure of this trend gives us increased confidence in our ongoing efforts to prove high grade silver/gold mineralization along the 5.0 km structure traced to date.” (CNNMatthews, August 9, 2006)

Exploration companies in the age of commodities are particularly interesting. There is a double or even exponential leverage. If Orko finds silver deposits, it has a value. If, however, the price of silver goes up, it has an increased value.

That is why, today, commodity players start to concentrate on exploration companies, betting on the success of deposits and price increases at the same time.
   
2. Silver is basically a very depressed commodity which actually can be construed to be in shortage. Silver has always been a component of industrial usage and monetary usage. The monetary usage usually comes to the fore in times of crisis, in time of inflation reflecting increased money supply and any of the combination of above.

In 1979, about 25 years ago, silver was about $5 an ounce. The so-called “silver run-up,” which I call the “Jimmy factor silver run-up,” which recognized the monetary failures of the former American president, put silver up to $50 per ounce. For 25 years, silver fell back to the $5 level. In 1998, when Warren Buffett jumped into silver, the upside didn’t break out and it had been forgotten, to some extent, until today.

However, at $7 an ounce, and we have now to take a 25-year period, almost every factor that favors silver has increased in magnitude. Let us simply take the money supply, the whole world’s money supply. It has been in constant growth, but, in the last five or six years, with the emergence of the Far East, the overall international money supply probably doubled in the five years of the 21st Century. Growth in money supply increases the demand for commodities. There are many reasons, but one is that we have more consumers in the world in our world of six billion people and, therefore, they need more of the basic metals, more of silver for industrial use than before. We also have to take into account that, as a jewelry, the growth of the middle class, the consuming class in the whole universe are potential buyers of silver. To my mind, the price increase in a dramatic format for silver is an avalanche waiting to come. Undoubtedly, this is a speculation.
   
3. Gold has attracted much greater interest and, in the last few weeks, a certain point ran to $450 an ounce have achieved international interest. Gold and silver used to go together. Whereas gold has increased 150 points in the last four years, the $7 silver hardly moved above the $6 price of Warren Buffett.
   
4. Almost every newspaper and financial publication talks about the housing market. Housing prices all over the United States in the last eight years have doubled. It’s the accumulation of value. Gold and silver all represent hard assets and value.
   
5. When it comes to Orko, there is a technical factor. The company has only 35 million shares and, at 25 cents U.S. dollars, we are talking about a total market capitalization of $9 million.

Now let us put Orko in perspective. The company states that, based on the recent finding, there may be 100, 150 million ounces of silver in the total deposits.

The conversion factor of the evaluation of is as follows. Every million ounces of silver is equivalent to 1/7 of gold value. Gold is valued at, say, $50 per ounce under ground.

We have roughly 1.5 million gold equivalent ounces.

If we value the gold at $50 on ground, we are talking of 75 million value in total. Divided by 35 million shares, we have roughly $2 per share.
 
1M ounces of silver  
0.15 ounces of gold  
$50 per ounce of gold $750,000
35 million shares $0.020 per share
100 million ounces of silver $2.00 per share

In any case, we are talking of very large numbers.


We have to put this exploration story into a stock market perspective. $2 value at 35 million shares is equivalent to $70 million market capitalization. This company, a few months ago, raised a few million shares at 20 cents, raising about $2 million. But we are saying that this exploration company, by identifying and proving 100 million ounces of silver reserve, could have a market cap of $70 million, as opposed to the current market cap of $9 million.

These are not only big numbers, but it converts Orko into a different company. A $70 million company can raise maybe $10 million through a public offering. It can attract a third-party investor for selling 10, 20% of the company and become a silver merchant banker. In other words, it becomes a corporate entity with monetary value in the stock market, as opposed to being nothing but an all-out speculation.

The company, of course, is basically on lease from GoldCorp, the fourth-largest gold company in the Northern Hemisphere. GoldCorp has a right to invest 1.5 million more money into Orko and has 60% interest in the La Preciosa deposit or acquire 100% of the company, either for cash or GoldCorp shares.

As we mentioned earlier, the company so far as identified 880 meters of silver deposit and, in the next month, it may go further to up to five kilometers. At any one time after August 31st, GoldCorp can negotiate for a full acquisition of Orko and, if the transaction happens to be for GoldCorp shares, valued, let’s say, at $20, the $70 million market cap would represent 1/10 of GoldCorp for every share of Orko. Since Orko’s selling at 25 cents and 1/10 of $20 is $2, the capital gain is meaningful.

Now, after the arithmetic, we have to go back a little bit to silver with silver story.
Silver attracted attention of many people as a substitute for gold or another gold or another metal or another storage of value or simply silver itself. The celebrated monetary storyteller, Paul Erdman, first became famous with his book, The Crash of ‘79. Actually, prior to the book, he published The Silver Bears, which became a successful movie with Michael Caine, picturing the late Sir James Goldsmith as the man who controlled the world’s silver.

When the Hunt Brothers came on the scene, inflation was rampant. Interest rates were approaching 20%. The country was in horrible shape. Intelligent people, in 1980, were willing to sell their businesses and settle to some years of withdrawal in case Jimmy Carter is reelected as persistent. We had political and monetary crisis. Mortgages were nonexistent. The danger of the dollar losing its value and the banks getting illiquid were very real.

The Hunt Brothers tried to hedge in burgeoning commodities. In 1980, they lost money. They were thirty years ahead of their time. However, since 1980, Mick Caine, the Hunt Brothers and I added 25 years—and silver did not hit $10 for per ounce. However, we are all around. Perhaps, when silver hits $10—for every share of Orko which is currently selling at 25 cents a share
Commodity players are often labeled negatively as speculators. But we cannot forget that H.L. Hunt risked everything for drilling for oil, so did Paul Getty. And developer like Trump or the late William Zeckendorf are risking everything for creating something which did not exist.

The commodity boom of the 21st Century in base metals has created tremendous wealth, like Mr. Mittals, the steel baron covering the world with his steel plants in billions of values.
So far, there was only one gold hero who is my personal fan, Robert McEwen, chairman of GoldCorp, who created a large gold company in the last ten years.

Silver today, in 2005, has no father. The real heroes are probably the successful exploration companies like Orko.

However, when I compare the rising fees of iron ore, copper, steel with silver, I see a major opportunity.

I wait and I expect a word from the Hunt family, who sustained the family business in the last thirty years, who led the family actually into greater success and led quietly that the family ever had.

When it comes to silver, I have to think back to the days in 1979 and 1980 when I was a principal player in Sunshine Mining and the silver game.

Silver is going to recover now—at least, this is my opinion—and, in fact, it may get greater recognition than it ever has.

Actually, the country owes a deep apology to the Hunt Brothers. They foresaw the commodity boom and they foresaw that paper money may not be permanently the only avenue for exchanging currencies for good. They were thirty years ahead of their time.

One day, I believe that Herbert Hunt will make public statement and he refrained to make any for thirty years:

“My son and I are buying sound silver stocks.”

 


(Article 4 - posted August 18, 2005)


DISCLAIMER
Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein.
Andrew Racz


Dated: August 18, 2005


Expenses of less than $10,000 were paid by ORKO