BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

THE IMF

ITS PARENT, ITS BACKGROUND, ITS PRESENT AND POSSIBLY IF THERE IS – A FUTURE

Posted on February 27, 2012

Five years ago the average person didn’t know the name and the meaning of IMF. It was supposed to be a Washington based international organization maybe similar to the World Bank; maybe to an international bank, maybe a financial entity that the poor countries use – but not many people knew and understood the function of the IMF.

In a historical sense, the IMF has a predecessor. I was what we call the League of Nations. Just as the IMF was created in 1945, in the United States, the League of Nations was created in Geneva after the Versailles Treaty. The major different between the two organizations is that the IMF is very much a financial arm of the United States whereas the League of Nations didn’t even have the United States as a member. While President Wilson was still in Versailles, the Senate vetoed the American Membership in the League and in fact when the President campaigned nonstop upon his return in the United States for America being a key member of the League of Nations he lost and in fact as the story goes became sick and in the last two years of his second terms he was more or less an invalid.

President Wilson took the League of Nations seriously. The IMF is not taking most of its 187 members seriously. Yet both international entities have played a leading role in the welfare of the last 100 years.

The League of Nations was supposed to keep peace in the world. It was supposed to have power to declare war, it had the power to silence aggressive nations, eliminate membership and impose sanctions. It has mainly remained a story in this history books.

In the early 30’s Japan withdrew from the League of Nations and in 1936 Adolph Hitler took German out of the League.

The two leading members of the League were Anthony Eden, Foreign Secretary of Great Britain who brought in sanctions and took a moral stand against aggressive nations like Mussolini for aggression against Abyssinia. Its most memorable member was Maxim Litvinoff the Foreign Minister of the Soviet Union. It was unusual that a rather aggressive and certainly not democratic nation, the Soviet Union, would send a man – its foreign secretary – to Geneva and try to preserve international peace.

Litvinoff will always be remembered for the fact that he mentioned that the Soviet Union was willing to abide by its Treaty obligations for Czechoslovakia, He was not taken seriously. After all the Munich Agreement eliminated Russia from all its negotiating power, he stated in view of the collapse of the League and the collapse of world peace –peace is indivisible.

Litvinoff was removed by Stalin and replaced by Molotov when it became obvious for the Soviet Union that the West would not stand by Soviet Russia against the Third Reich. In August 1939, the so-called Molotov-Ribentroff Pact was signed, 10 days later the Second World War began.

Recalling the 1930s, the League of Nations, the atmosphere that the collapse of the League of Nations created, we now have to jump back to the IMF created in 1945. In 2012 the IMF is the same position as the League was in 1939.

In August 1939, Winston Churchill said in the House of Commons that Herr Hitler had torn up the treaties. The treaties in the League were always about peace – about peace between various countries, peace between continents, and respect for small nations vs big nations. Litinoff predicted, peace is indivisible and when Churchill stated that when Hitler tore up the treaties, a process started which killed 100 million people.

The international monetary fund was created in 1945 to preserve financial peace and financial cooperation. It was published that 187 countries are supposed to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote sustainable economic growth and reduce poverty around the world.

There was no world war after 1945, but the monetary peace, monetary agreements are supposed to represent the atmosphere where nations can achieve macro economic stability and reduce poverty. In terms of definition, the IMF has 187 member countries. It is a specialized agency of the United Nations but has its own charter and finances. It is the last sentence which is now a major issue in the world. I refer to the finances of the IMF. Whereas the IMF is supposed to help countries improve economic management has its own research and statistics, it is an organization that we can compare in a monetary sense what the League of Nations represented after the Treaty of Versailles. The IMF can track global economic trends, analyze member countries, and tackle economic difficulties. The IMF is supposed to give advice to governments, central banks, its research, statistics is aimed at tracking the global economic environment; it is giving loans to various countries in need and it fights poverty.

The original aims were slowly disintegrating the same way as the League of Nations was disregarded by Mussolini, France and Hitler.

Its charter was to provide international cooperation, promote exchange stability and tackle balance of payments problems.

The IMF charter gave lending framework to better suit to countries of individual needs. It is supposed to stop monetary crisis in various countries and establish various committees including the G20 nations, the G8 nations for monetary well-being of its members.

While it was built up gradually, today almost all major European nations – Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, England – have more debt than GNP.

Unfortunately, in the last 40 years lending or rather borrowing by individual nations in creating war – not solid business.

This was unheard of in the 1930s and of course it was unknown in the 1960s. When a country borrows it can borrow from the IMF, it can borrow through its banks and other entities from the international banking community. It has not been publicized except the last five years that when a country borrows from friendly bankers in other countries, it builds up a liability that has to be added to the total borrowing of a member country.

Furthermore, there is another issue. If country “A” has a total borrowing of $100 billion, of which let’s say $30 billion is borrowed from French banks, the liability of the French bank becomes the total liability of France itself.

What it amounts to that if country “A” is debt overseas $100 billion, it is a $100 billion potential deficit from other countries, from other leading banks and therefore they can become deficit financing if country “A” defaults or threatens to default.

The current situation is interrelated: debt of an individual country, bank borrowing by Western countries who lend the money, and the total lending ability of the IMF itself.

In other words, we are reducing borrowing capabilities of the international banks of the IMF all because of one individual member nation accumulates debt that they cannot handle.

This is where the global problem today begins.

The problem is introduced when a whole group of countries, let’s say in Africa, are all in debt and foreign banks refuse to lend money to an area covering let’s say 10 countries and therefore hindering economic development.

Another factor which has come about is the emergence of the Far East where China has accumulated $3.8 trillion reserve currencies. While China is part of the IMF, China is part of the international community, it is a new member and its utilization of surplus currency is not in conformity of the Western system, whereby the Western banks technically bankrupted themselves to help the deficit ridden countries.

The item which is playing a new factor is gold. Gold played the central role in the international economic system after World War II. (COPY A) It is quite possible that because of the continual and repeated economic crisis in Europe which all add up to an unmanageable proportion the price of gold will go up substantially and some readjustment of the currency obligations will happen and in this process, new techniques will be used.

Gold backed bonds which I describe in the following chapter is one of the tools that may alleviate the current problems.

Gold Index Bonds basically convert debt into equity. Keeping this in mind our prediction is that the IMF eventually will succeed. If, however, it succeeds it must use some new technique such as gold index bonds to eliminate debt.

Gold Index Bonds use a certain formula and creates equity of assets which are not mined and sold today. It can be agriculture; it can be mining assets – gold, silver, copper – whatever.

The way to look the issue is as follows: suppose the member nations – 187 – have a total debt of let’s say $3 trillion. The clever packaging of gold index bonds can slowly reduce outstanding debt and the world is going to be readjusted over a period of 5, 10 years to a normal picture.

If this is the case, the IMF will succeed. Gold Index Bonds will eliminate debt and deliver minerals and agriculture to the markets. It will lead to a readjustment of our monetary and economic system.

But unlike in 1939, in the year 2012, we could say that economic stability is invisible. The imagination of our monetary leaders, treasurers, monetary experts may succeed in the current decade where the French and British governments failed in 1939; however, we must remember that the world in the ’39 and ’40 was saved by forceful, exception, imaginative and bright historical figures.

The IMF will survive – in the age of the “Greek Crisis – if we remember in 2012 – we could say, this was their finest hour.

Gold Indexed Cental Bank Bonds

“What will happen to all the corporations which successfully issue Gold-indexed Dividend Bonds?

If the price of gold goes up, the bonds are attractive. If the company obtains money via gold-indexed dividend bonds at a time when most companies cannot raise money, their stock is likely to go up and the bonds are converted.

Why do we trust in gold?

Well, after the war when I was a seven-year-old child in Hungary, we first had no money, then the government created inflation by printing money, and then the system created hyperinflation, and then a new currency came into being and the old simply disappeared.

It was not only the Weimar Republic of Germany; it was the 1947-48 currency crisis in West Germany. They simply printed a new currency.

So what happened to the Hungarians in ’46 and the West Germans in ’47 who had monetary assets? Everything was wiped out except what they held in gold. And now in February 2009, President Obama recommends a $3.5 trillion budget.

We should reflect on the good old times until the 21st century brought in President George W. Bush and decades which led to the current 14 trillion deficit, those days before the year 2000.

“The Crisis that Almost Wasn’t”

Gold has been associated with the Rothschilds 200 years ago during the Napoleon War and with Disraeli, at a time Great Britain purchased the Suez Canal, or rather the land for the Suez Canal. Gold was king during the Second World War and afterwards, and it has become every day money when on August 15, 1972. President Nixon closed the gold window. At that time, gold effectively became a floating currency. I have had a lifelong fascination with gold. I was seven years old when I saw my stepparents and family after the end of the war, speculating all day long in the black markets for gold and hard currency. This fascination carried me as a student. After I spent a year at Cambridge, I managed to spend four months in South Africa where I worked in one of the mining houses but interviewed half of Johannesburg, including Harry Oppenheimer of the Anglo-American.” In early 1982, I presented a study to President Nixon in an article which stated that Russia was in bankruptcy.

The price of gold is inversely related to the size of the budget deficit. However, when politicians talk about a $2 trillion deficit, the only reason gold declines is to liquidate in order to pay bills. Whatever way we look at it, gold will remain in the stratosphere until monetary discipline is reestablished.

In 1982 I worked out a simple model. The United States would float for dollars a convertible bond against all its gold reserves. Taking this money, the United States would buy out at each major bank the Russian line of credit. In practical terms, if let’s say Russia had a $300 million line of credit with Westminster Bank of England, and if the United States paid off the $300 million, then when let’s say November 30, 1982 came along and the Russians want to refinance the debt, they would have to come to the United States. Having read the study, my friend, the late Governor John B. Connolly of Texas made a speech to some two thousand people in New York City in which he stated that just today in the Financial Times we read that the Poles want to refinance a $22 billion loan.

The former Secretary of the Treasury, who was also a three-term governor of Texas, read the Financial Times. When he reviewed the fact that the Polish government wanted to roll over a $22 billion loan. He said “ No sir! We want cash. Talk to your friends, the Soviet Union.”

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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