BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

THE MONGOLIAN ECONOMIC MIRACLE

2011 was a fearful year. Egypt and Libya collapsed. The United States Budget office almost closed shop. Gold hit $1,920 an ounce – while copper and steel headed south. YET The New York based Van-Eck began to organize the Mongolian ETF.

We Declare
Prime Minister S. Bathbold
The Man of the Year

About a year ago Mr. Farber the Internationally known, Hong Kong based author of “Gloom and Doom” Newsletter was interviewed about gold on the Sunday television in New York. The commentator with a sense of humor said we will have Mr. Farber talk to us and he’s of all places, Mongolia.

Mr. Farber who is also Director of Ivanhoe, the largest company in Mongolia, the company which is supposed to deliver $7 billion worth of minerals in a few years. Starting in two years, Mr. Farber confirmed Ivanhoe will mine 650,000 ounces of gold that can go to 1.1 million ounces a year. He was perfectly happy to do the interview and confirm that he is, in fact, talking from of all places, Mongolia. It was stated that very soon when people talk about gold anywhere in the world, they may look up on the map for the largest gold mine in the world – Ivanhoe – and respectfully say, it is of course in Mongolia.

Mongolia is a democratic country. It has a stock market with some 350 stocks listed. In the year 2010, it was the best performing market in the world with 130% increase and today, it is a stepson of the London Stock Exchange.

The Mongol Financial Stock Market Miracle maybe coming.

Let me again turn to a historical conversation. About 4 years ago, a well known money manager in Toronto, Margo Nodi, asked me whether the price of silver is likely to grown when they finally list the silver ETF on the market. It was one of those questions to which I gave a positive, affirmative answer. At the time of the conversation, silver was about $6 – 4 years later, today, it’s $35 and the silver ETF SLV has $9.78 billion assets. 

Of all what we’ve heard and talked about – Mongolia – we have to go down to the most important salient features to identify where we are and where we are going.

A brief description….

  • The gross national product is around $6 billion. 
  • The GNP composed of from 15% agriculture, 31% industry and 54% for services.
  • The GNP per capita is $3,600. 
  • The important trading partners – 52% China, 10% Canada, and 3% Russia

Mongolia financially and economically began to move forward when Ivanhoe and Rio Tinto signed the Stability Agreement with the Mongol government whereby the government retains 34% of the Ivanhoe company and eliminated the so-called windfall profit tax. This gave stability to the mining industry in Mongolia. Considering that a year after signing the agreement, the Mongol government is already expanding upon the Ivanhoe gold-copper and silver deal. The Mongol government is engaged to create a deal for its coal reserves called Taven Tulgoi West. Its intent to list this enormous coal company, probably one of the largest in the world, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and London and possibly in Singapore. The coal in a way is likely to become the most important export item for Mongolia. It should be mentioned that most of the coal mined is exported to China or eventually converted into electricity. Keeping in mind that China has 1/5th of the electricity usage of the United States at a time when there are 5 times as many Chinese as Americans on this universe. The Chinese are burning 3.4 billion tons of coal a year and the Taven Tulgoi West deposit which is partially owned by the government. In the IPO for Taven Tulgoi East the estimate is that for half of the company, the Mongol government will get $10 billion. After attaining 50% of Taven Tulgoi, they will distribute 538 shares to every Mongol citizen. 

This development of the coal industry and there are dozens of other coal companies – some are owned in Australia, indicates the economic value of Mongol coal and the direction in which Mongolia is going to go – public ownership, retention by the government, participation by people – thus raising the income level of the average Mongolian and in a way create a country which very much resembles the America of President Roosevelt who lifted the standard of living of people phenomenally while making every American participate in the changing and positive economic climate.

The size is staggering. Mongolia exported 16.6 million tons of coal in 2010 and is forecast to export 50 million tons by 2015 and 75 million in 2025. The following table of the coal industry is an interesting illustration of the country.

Why Coal in Mongolia?

Mongolia exported 16.6 million tons of coal in 2010 and forecasts to export 50 million tons of coal by 2015 and 75 million tons by 2025.

The demand for Mongolian gold is illustrated in its supply capability to China, the largest country in the world which is the neighbor, as illustrated below.

Mongolia: Supply Center to China

  • China is the largest energy consumer in the world with 9.5% GDP growth.
  • 70% of China’s total energy comes from coal.
  • In 2000: China consumed 1.2 billion tons of coal
  • In 2010 China 3.2 billion tons of coal
  • Coal is China’s most important source of energy with the lowest production cost
  • China’s 114.5 billion tons reserve may run short in about 2040
  • China imports coal from Mongolia, Australia, Canada, United States, Indonesia and many other parts of the world to meet its consumption demand.

Mongolia, of course, is other than coal. Ivanhoe is gold and copper. In the following table we illustrate the number of leading companies participating in the Mongolian economy. Some are giants but if we add East Asia Minerals, Ivanhoe which is the Mongolian mining, Rio Tinto, South Gobi Resources, Xtra, we are talking close to $100 billion.

A Mongolia ETF is coming soon. So how can you invest in Mongolia?

Van Eck is launching a Mongolia ETF soon. We are still waiting to know how they will make up the portfolio. Will the majority of holdings be non-Mongolian companies doing business in Mongolia? Will the majority of holdings be companies that trade on the Mongolian Stock Exchange. This is unknown at this time, and certainly the ETF has the flexibility to change over time as the MSE grows. Here is a link to Van Eck’s SEC filing to form the Mongolia ETF. If the ETF is not for you, what are the other options?

Publicly traded stocks on U.S. exchanges – a starter’s list:

  • East Asia Minerals Corporation (EAIAF.PK). Diversified miner with properties in Indonesia (copper and gold) and Mongolia (uranium). Indonesian current events bear following in the mining sector for this stock.
  • Erdene Resource Development Corp. (ERDCF.PK). Diversified miner with properties in Canada, Georgia, and Mongolia. Partnerships with Xstrata for coal production in Canada and Mongolia. Mining Kaolin in Georgia. Recent findings in Mongolia indicate copper and gold on site as well.
  • Entrée Gold Inc. (EGI). Diversified miner with properties in Mongolia, the U.S., Mexico and Peru. Its Lookout Hill property surrounds the Oyu Tolgoi mine and is subject to joint venture with IVN.
  • Ivanhoe Mines (IVN). Diversified miner with properties in Mongolia, Australia, and Kazahkstan. IVN owns a 66% interest in Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia.
  • Kahn Resources (KHRIF.PK). Uranium miner that has had licensing problems with the Mongolian Government recently.
  • Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF.PK). A CEO hedge fund manager investing in anything in Mongolia except mining to profit from Mongolia’s book. Primary holdings are insurance company subsidiary, real estate, and cash at this time.
  • Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF.PK). Coking coal producer and exporter. From their website: “MMC is the closest coking coal producer to Baotou, the closest railway transportation hub providing access from Mongolia to the largest steel producing provinces in China.”
  • Petro Matad (PRTDE.PK). Focused on the exploration and development of oil property in Mongolia. The company website says: “It is the first substantially Mongolian owned company to list on an international exchange.”
  • Prophecy Coal (PRPCE.PK). Two thermal coal mining projects in Mongolia. Their website says: “The company controls over 1.4 billoion tons of open-pittable thermal coal in Mongolia (839 Mt. Measurers, 579 Mt. Indicated) between 2 distinct deposits with power plant plans for its second deposit (Changana’s) well under way.”
  • Rio Tinto (RIO). Highly diversified global mining company, joint partner in Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine.
  • South Gobi Resources Limited (SOQRP.PK). Thermal coal mining in southern Mongolia. 57% owned by Ivanhoe.
  • Xstrata (SXRAY.PK). Highly diversified miner with joint projects in coal with Erdene (ERDCF.PK) IN Mongolia.

Now anybody who is interested in making money in investments, looks for stability, looks for the desirability of the mining product, and at the same time, the size of capital that is enabling an astronomical growth rate for the Mongolian economy. 

When we come to the origin of the Mongolian miracle we obviously have to talk about Oyu Tolgoi which was put together by Robert Freedland who by all means I put in the same category as the last Steve Jobs. They were both creators; they are both individualistic, and totally determined to succeed where not many people have succeeded so far. 

Ivanhoe is the 66% owner of the Oyu Tolgoi mine estimated to go into production in about 18 months or less with 650,000 ounces of gold; 1.2 billion pounds of copper. The value of this tremendous mineral projection is phenomenal and illustrated in
 

650,000 ounces of gold at $2,000 = $1.3 Billion
1,200,000,000 ounces of copper at $4 = 0.5 Billion
    -----------------
    $1.88 Billion

 

 

 

14,000 people worked on the Ivanhoe project which as we recently checked, is about 60% complete. 

Investment Agreement

Media reports during the weekend quoted Mongoli’s Mineral Resources and Energy Minister D. Zorigt as indicating that Ivanhoe Mines and Rio Tinto would receive a letter from the Mongolian government asking the companies to consider entering into discussions to address a possible change to the investment agreement. A reported potential proposed change would see acceleration of the government’s right to increase its current 34% interest in Oyu Tolgoi to 50% by purchasing an additional 16% at fair market alue at some future point, after Ivanhoe Mines and Rio Tinto recoup their capital investment in the project.

Earlier this month, 20 members of Mongolia’s national parliament petitioned the government to pursue changes in the investment agreement ahead of a general election set for next June.

The investment agreement, which was negotiated over five years, signe din October 2009 and became fully effective in March 2010, complies fully with all Mongolian laws and was negotiated by the government in accordance with all resolutions issues by the Mongolian parliament. The agreement has been the basis for the commitment by Ivanhoe Mines and its strategic investor, Rio Tinto, toinvest billions of dollars in the development of the mining complex. Ivanhoe Mines discovered the Oyu Tolgoi deposits and holds a 66% interest I nthe project.

Oyu Tolgoi already has created jobs for thousands of Mongolians and has helped Mongolia to achieve one of the highest growth rates of any developing country in the world. The project’s benefits also have been shared among local businesses and suppliers, which now form an integral and growing part of the project.

Since the signing of the Investment Agreement, the price of gold has gone to $1,670 – it hit $1,900 about a month ago and top experts predict a $2,000 gold before the year is over. As far as copper is concerned, with all the negative remarks recently, the turnaround has come in early October 2011. The world has realized that if we can stabilize the European financial conditions, copper will go towards $5. Today on international television, Mr. George Gero, Vice President of RBC brilliantly summed up the future of copper. If there is peace in the world, people build houses. If they build houses, they use copper – 400 lbs. of copper a house.

I always keep in mind the development of the world since I left Hungary. In 1956 there were 1 ½ billion people who worked. Today, the population of the world is 6.9 billion and probably 4 ½ to 5 billion are working. In less than 10 years the population of the world will be 9.1 billion and the number of people working and the number of homes being built will go up accordingly.

The Ivanhoe mine may turn out to be one of the biggest cash flow generator in the history of mankind. After all, by the year 2020, which will be the 5th year of production, the price of gold could be $2,500 – copper $6 – and the cash flow well in excess of $7 billion but maybe $10 billion.

We should also keep in mind that at that time, the giant Rio Tinto will own 48% and its ownership of Ivanhoe will be a very big liquid part of the total Rio Tinto portfolio that the 30% ownership of the Mongolian government will amount to $3 billion which is again a very large part of the liquid asset of the government. We are talking of a potential market value for Ivanhoe of $20 billion.

Let’s go back to the stock market. The American ETF operators have already jumped on the potential of a Mongolian ETF. It has been stated by the press that in May 2011, the well known Van Eck organization began to put together a Mongolian ETF. If such an event is a reality, and we get closer and closer to the production of Ivanhoe. And the price of gold and copper indicate very heavy initial cash flow, we may simply say that never in the history of all the ETFs and there are about 300 filed this year alone, can a single ETF which will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange, will create great interest. Eventually Mongolia may have more money than to expend overseas and create companies which if listed in Hong Kong, London, and New York and Toronto or Sydney, it will become better known, better analyzed, and more respected in the international financial community.

After all, in size Mongolia may not be the largest. At the same time in terms of growth, they may not have a competitor. Mongolia could grow faster than any other country and its ETF could become the most spectacular of listed ETFs listed in New York, Hong Kong and Shanghai

It may be premature but a comparison perhaps can be in order. Would Mongolia ever have in the next 10 years or 15 years as much money as Apple Computer?

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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