BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Arafura Resources

April 15, 2010

(ARU-AX) - ASX

Price:

65¢ ASX

52-week range:

33¢ - $1.285

Shares outstanding:

290,000,000

Cash:

 

Market cap:

$200M

After financing:

$450M

Yearly revenues:
20,000 tons @ $30,000/ton

$600M

10-year revenues:

$6B

Per-share (450M)

12X

Arafura has a rapidly growing REE-phosphate-uranium project in Australia's Northern Territory. An Aus. $23 million investment by the East China Mineral Exploration and Development Bureau will assist the company through a bankable feasibility study (BFS) and to production in 2013. A favorable BFS can create mining in early 2013.

  1. Production rate could reach 20,000 tons per year.
  2. We estimate a price per ton to be $25, up from the present $17 per ton.
  3. The revenue would then be Aus. $500 million.
  4. The expected mine life is at least 20 years, at an annual production rate of 20,000 tons of Rare Earth oxide (REO).
  5. The undiscounted revenue flow.
  6. The current REE deposit of Nolans is 30 million tons. The price of $25 per ton does not take into account the increase in deposits and a price of maybe $40 per ton as the world shortage intensifies. Accordingly, the overall revenue flow under these circumstances and the possible extension of 20-30 years creates the possibility of not $10 billion but $20 billion.
  7. Considering that the current market cap of Arafura Resources is only $200 million, the upside potential is impressive.

INTERVIEW WITH GAVIN LOCKYER
and
RICHARD BRESCIANINI
ARAFURA RESOURCES, LTD.

Q:  This is an industry for high school boys for our generation. At the same time, I did some reading. The financial work hasn't been properly evaluated for the rare metals industry. It may be that there aren't any pamphlets or an intelligent summary has never been published and circulated in the financial world. Actually, it is much more glamorous than copper considering that in this country, copper has gone from $1.50 to $8.00. Frankly, nobody considered copper glamorous. And copper was a very big winner. It's glamorous but not as fundamental as gold, and gold is a very big winner. Your stock has moved a little bit, but somehow or another I feel that there is something missing. So if you don't mind, I ask some general questions. First of all, at the moment how many companies outside China are meaningful participants in the industry?

A:  At the moment, 95% to 98% of world production comes from China. A small amount comes out of Russia and India, as byproducts from their other industries. So outside of China, at this point in time there are no other rare earth producers of significance. There is coming onto production, there will be Mountain Pass, which is an American operation in California owned by Molycorp. That was the original rare earth mine from the sixties through to the nineties. It was shut in the nineties due to environmental reasons. However, it is currently commencing reprocessing of stockpiled ore, which I believe will be approaching full production sometime in 2012.

Rare metals are not traded as indexed commodities, and tend to interest only certain types of investors. There is a growing resource community, corporate strategies and venture capital to share their insights on the potential for long-term growth of value in the rare metals value chain.

Q:  What are the leading players in the Western world?

A:  Besides Mountain Pass, the next project which will probably come into production will be Mt Weld, which is here in Western Australia, owned by Lynas Corporation followed by Arafura. Those three companies that I just mentioned, Molycorp, Lynas and Arafura will all be producing multiple thousands of tons of rare earths per annum. So we're talking initially five to ten thousand for Mountain Pass, upscaling to 20,000 tpa in time, around 10,000 up to 20,000 tpa for Mt Weld and Arafura’s Nolans deposit with 20,000 tpa initially with the opportunity to grow once the size of the resource is known.

Q:  So you take these three companies, and when they start production, how much would they produce?

A:  Well, Arafura is looking to produce 20,000 tons per annum. Lynas has indicated that they would produce initially 10,000 tons leading up to about 20,000 tons per annum. And Mountain Pass, I believe, is between 5,000 and 10,000 tons per annum initially.

Arafura Resources Valuation

A key issue is the future financing which may amount of $420 million. If you assume that the initial estimate is that the financing is one-half equity and one-half debt. This may amount to the issue of 350 million shares. A key fact is the price of REO, which could increase to $25 per kilo over the coming five years. Since we predict an acute shortage and increased per-share value of Arafura's common stock, the $350 million shares to be issued can decline substantially.

Furthermore, some sort of a project financing is always a possibility. All these hypothetical factors are favorable to the future price of Arafura. If we consider the company as a $20 billion unique mineral empire, we can convert the mineral assets into equity paper which sharply reduces or eliminates the huge number of shares to be issued for capital expenditures. As an extreme example, there may be not 650 million, but 400 million, which would indicate that the common stock of Arafura could reach $3.00 per share, or even a multiple of such capitalization.

Q:  So we are talking of 35,000 tons per annum. Correct?

A:  Initially that's correct, but in the next five years that could grow to around 60,000 tons per annum.

Q:  The rare earths are measured together with one yardstick, not individually. How much is a tonnage worth today?

A:  Today's prices I think for one kilogram of the Nolans mix of rare earth is about $15. We actually posted that price on our website yesterday. One kilogram of rare earths from the Lynas deposit is slightly less than that, and a kilogram of rare earths from Mountain Pass will be somewhat less than Lynas. The reason is that Nolans is slightly enriched compared to the other deposits in higher value magnet and phosphor material.

Q:  So translating kilograms into tonnage, how much is the 35,000 ton equivalent?

A:  I'm not quite sure I understand your question.

Q:  You are talking about $15 per kilogram.

A:  For Arafura, yes.

Q:  Converted into tonnage and multiplied by 30?

A:  Well, the thing is the 30,000 tons that you're talking about has a different mix of rare earths. So Arafura's ton of rare earths would be $15,000 per ton. Then we're going to produce 20,000 tons. The Lynas product on current prices would be worth a little bit less than that, maybe $14.90 a kilo, so $14,900 a ton. And they're going to produce initially 10,000 tons, building up to 20,000, over the next few years. The Mountain Pass deposit would off the top of my head be worth maybe $10-12 a kilogram. So they're producing 5,000 to 10,000 tons over that period of time, so their dollar value will be less.

Global Sources of Rare Earths Supply

1.

 

China supplies 95% of world market

 

Operates at its capacity limit

2.

 

No significant non-Chinese supply sources available today

 

Small and limited production in Russia (3,000-4,000 tpa)

 

Beach sand processed by Indian Rare Earths, subsidiary of Atomic Energy Agency (7% thorium banned elsewhere)

3.

 

Development projects currently under study

 

Mainly at an early stage with long lead times to realization.

 

New projects face economic and environmental hurdles.

 

Mountain Pass in California has announced plans to restart in approximately 2012, subject to economic and environmental hurdles (approximately 11,000 tpa).

Nolans is a deposit of lanthanoid elements, also called the rare earth elements, or REE. The REE market is forecast to undergo rapid growth over the next 5 years, of 7-9% per annum. Nolans could supply 10% of the global REE market, which is currently dominated by China.

The Rare Earth Elements

The rare earth elements (REE), sometimes called the rare earth metals, is a general name given to the 15 lanthanoid elements (atomic numbers 57 to 71). The lanthanoid REE are further divided into the light rare earths (LREE, from lanthanum to samarium) and heavy rare earths (HREE, from europium to lutetium).

Many investors have heard of the rare earths but few know very much about them, or understand the growth potential of the REE sectors. BCC Research forecasts 7-9% compound annual growth rate in global REE demand over the next 5 years.

"This growth is underpinned by the lift in demand for clean, green technology to meet consumers' and international governments' increased focus on environmental concerns and emissions abatement schemes." (ARU Annual Report, 2008-09).

China currently supplies 97% of the global rare earths market and has recently indicated its intention to curtail exports to meet its increasing domestic needs. Once operational, the Nolans Project will be capable of supplying about 10% of the global rare earths market.

Symbol

Name

Nolans relative %

La
Lanthanum
20.0
Ce
Cerium
48.2
Pr
Praseodymium
5.9
Nd
 Neodymium
21.5
Pm
Promethium
 
Sm
Samarium
2.4
Eu
Europium
0.41
Gd
Gadolinium
1
Tb
Terbium
0.08
Dy
Dysprosium
0.34
Ho
Holmium
 
Er
Erbium
 
Tm
Thulium
 
Yb
Ytterbium
 
Lu
Lutetium
 

Q:  If you have $15 per kilogram and you have 20,000 tons, that's about $300 million.

A:  That's correct.

Q:  Now, if you add the others together, the maximum it will come to is a billion dollars. Probably less.

Value of total production in 2015: $1.0B

A:  Yes.

Q:  And if you go let's say from that moment on and everybody reaches this level, five years later others may come in. I know the price per kilogram will go from $15 to $25 or so, but what would be the total tonnage in the whole industry outside China?

A:  In five years' time?

Q:  Five years after the first three. So in eight years' time, in 2018:

Total production: $2.0B

A: After these three projects come online, the next advanced project would be a company called Alkane here in Australia. They are producing I think 1,000 tons, maybe 3,000 tons per annum as a byproduct from their zirconia project. Then there's a couple of others in North America, which could possibly come online. But I'm not sure if they've actually--

Q:  Rare Element Resources, is it a serious contender?

A:  Well, I believe they've got a resource, and have commenced metallurgical studies. I'm not sure if they've proven their process. This is one of the critical factors. Each rare earths deposit is different, and therefore you cannot go out and buy, let's say, a gold extraction circuit, which is just standard throughout the industry, give or take a little bit of chemistry.

Q:  Can they produce 10,000 tons in about five years?

A:  I think it's difficult, to be perfectly honest. If you look from initial discovery through to final production with a gold project, you might be looking at sort of eight to ten years. With Rare Earths project, from initial discovery through to production, you're probably looking at ten to fifteen years. The reason being that each deposit is different through its geology, and therefore you must develop your own flow sheet and your own chemistry with which to extract the value.

Q:  Let me go back to geology in a minute. You're saying that after the first three years, some of the smaller companies in Australia and Canada may come on stream, and let's say instead of 30-35,000 tons, it might reach 50,000 by the end of the decade.

RICHARD:  Can I just add to that?  I think within five years, and I'm assuming here that the three major companies that you've already alluded to, Molycorp and Mountain Pass, Lynas at Mount Weld and Arafura at Nolans, have the capability within five years of producing cumulatively 60,000 tons of REO per annum.

Value of Worldwide Production Outside China

60,000 tons at $30/ton

Total revenue: $1.8B

5-year revenue potential: $10.0B

Q:  Five years from now.

RICHARD:  Within five years. Probably cumulatively 60,000 tons per annum is probably achievable between those three operations. Outside of those three operations, it gets to be very difficult to predict where the other players are going to be.

Q:  You are talking five years from now let's say 60,000 tons. By then the tonnage let's say is between $25 and $30, let's say $30, which is $1.8 billion. That's the valuation. And this $2 billion is then driving the older electric cars, the iPod, various machinery, and windmills. In other words, most of the modern economy is going to rely on these 60,000 tons in production. You are not giving too much possibility for it to go up to 90,000; 60,000 is already a good number. Correct?

RICHARD:  Correct, except you're forgetting of course that China is producing a lot of rare earths as well, which are going into a lot of those processes.

Q:  I don't see anything in what I read about China that says they are going to use computers and Apple Computer types of devices, or electric cars. In fact, they are the leading manufacturer of electric cars. In other words, China is not going to show less demand but rather more demand. So we have to assume that they are neutral from this moment on.

A:  In other words, our view would be that China is increasingly looking to provide material for its own development of its own industries, which leads the rest of the world in a little bit of a problem area.

2016

 

Estimated Production

60,000 tons

World raw material demand

140,000 tons

Extra growth in demand

+50,000 tons

Price

$30/ton - $40/ton

Yearly revenues

$2.4 billion

Potential 5-year cash flow

$12 billion, or $15 billion

Q:  So if China's position is not going to change, then the 60,000 tons has to supply the whole world everywhere it will be needed. Everybody is talking about more windmills, everybody is talking about more electric cars, a subject I am familiar with. So the demand is going to increase. The world is changing, the world is now more and more technologically oriented, and not only in New York City or Sydney, but it is technologically oriented all over Africa and South America. Let's be honest, this is no longer the British Empire. I hope you don't get insulted. It's not the British Empire. This is the modern world. If this is the case, the equities of Arafura, Lynas, Molycorp when it goes public, will be the representatives of the 60,000 tons, which is the life blood of modern electronic world. And if, for instance, just an idea that I read about, if electric cars really become successful and popular, you have a demand that you have never seen in your lifetime. After all, how much will and electric car cost? Let's say $15,000. How much of your material goes into it? Very little. And electric cars may become very popular because the current manufacturing process has already failed. Even Toyota failed. General Motors failed. I don't know what else the auto companies want to hear. The automobile industry is likely to make a change, and some other industries are also making changes that need your material. Therefore, the stocks or the equity interest of Arafura, are becoming part of major institutional holdings, because there is nothing to replace it. In America, I think there used to be 12,000 banks. Now even today, a few banks have failed but nobody cares, nobody misses them. But your 60,000, people may be missing. It will be missed in London, in Perth, and the demand will grow on the Sydney Stock Exchange.

There are 290 million shares which currently represent Arafura. Eventually there will be 20,000 tons yearly production. . At a selling price of $20,000 per ton, the total revenue is $400 million per annum and this equals $1.30 per share. If the selling price appreciates to $50 per ton, the revenue base would be $1 billion. If we assume that Arafura has to issue 300 million new shares for capital expenditures, the revenue could still reach $1.75 per share. If the cash flow gradually pays off debt, the per-share revenue could reach $3.00 per share.

Let me ask you the geology. How do you get these rare elements to the surface and to a workable condition?

A:  In our particular case or generally?

Q:  Let's talk about the particular because it's better understood.

A:  Well, our deposit at Nolans is at the surface. So there's no requirement for an underground operation. This is an open pit operation. It will be a relatively small open pit operation when you compare it to the much larger traditional iron mines or gold mines or whatever. So it's going to be quite a small operation, perhaps a million tons per annum. That material will be treated on site in central Australia, and a concentrate product on site via a couple of processes which have been developed by our metallurgists and engineers. That product then will be approximately half a million tons. Half a million to 600,000 tons per annum of concentrate will be initially trucked to a rail head around 60 to 70 kilometers away and then railed to a chemical processing facility. The location of that chemical processing facility hasn't been released by Arafura yet. But we have undertaken an Australia-wide site selection process internally and we've now narrowed down the field to a couple of different sites. We're in the final stages of assessing those sites in more detail. At the chemical processing site, the concentrate will then be treated with acid, primarily hydrochloric acid, and it's through that particular process where there will be what amounts to a rare earth and uranium stream, and the other stream which will be a phosphoric acid and calcium chloride stream coming out. So you have two different streams coming off the chemical leeching process.

Q:  I understand that you also have phosphate and uranium, but 72% of the material is rare elements. So in other words, the other two reduce the cost and has meaning in terms of money, but you can calculate that what you get for it is a reduction of the total cost of the mining. Correct?

A:  Yes. We will be significant producers of phosphoric acid. It's a technical grade phosphoric acid and it will be a significant revenue stream for us, as you've mentioned, which will significantly offset our cost of production.

Q:  I have your production schedule. At the moment, the company if I'm correct has 290 million, let's say 300 million shares. And at $.60, it's worth $180 million. Just in one single number, how much money from here on do you need to get into production?

A:  I can't answer that question if this is going to be published, because this information has not been made public.

Q:  Well, some of the material is about 400 million Australian dollars.

A:  Are you talking about capital expenditure?

Q:  Yes.

A: Our pre-feasibility study indicated that we would need approximately U.S. $400-450 million with which to build this facility, including the mine facility. But that is our capital requirement.

Q:  And that you have to spend in the next two and a half years?

A:  That's what we have to spend after we complete our bankable feasibility study in order to construct the plant and mine.

Q:  So that's your total requirement. And your production immediately is about 20,000 tons. And if it's by then $25, that's about $500 million.

A:  Correct.

Q:  Then you have 20 year, 30 years, 40 years with a revenue stream of at least $500 million, probably much more, and a moderate amount of expenditures to keep the mines going.

A:  Right. Now, it's interesting that you say the life of the mine is 20, 30, 40 years. We don't know how big this deposit is. So we have a minimum of 20 years life of mine, producing 20,000 tons per annum of REO, but we're not sure how much more we may be able to extract from that.

Q:  Here is a number which I hope to popularize. 20,000 tons of rare elements is one-third of your estimate for at least five years, which the world outside China has to live with. Correct?

A:  If you assume the 60,000 tons.

Q:  Yes, roughly. Then 20,000 is one-third, for you have to cope with all the difficulties. Now, today the market value of your securities is worth $200 million or less. So this $200 million is representative maybe four or five years from now of a tremendously important mineral product which could go to $500 million. So I am stating, and I have all the details to put into this, that let's make an example which everybody understands. Look, when Howard Hughes owned TWA and Hughes Aircraft, he predicted in 1944 or 1945 or 1946, that in fifteen years there would be a jet airliner. And he was a hundred percent right. Another historic example which in the British Empire you will understand, on May 10, 1940 Mr. Churchill became prime minister and he said that we would win the war. But I am saying that a phenomenon exists today in the markets where a couple of well-managed mining companies start with good geologists, access to money... Forget even the access to money. Have a security which can go up almost fivefold. If you believe in the process we discussed. You have mines, they have rare elements, you bring them out, you process them, deliver them to the marketplace. You can do 20,000 tons a year. And for a small sum of $450 million, you can have a cash flow of $600 billion. Now, that's the story.

A:  I agree with you.

Q:  Now, the rest I can do. I just wanted to bring this concept out.

A:  Don't forget, when you're working out that share price you only took the revenues into account. You didn't take into account operating expenditure.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Posted December 11, 2007

"Watergate Saved Nixon's Life"
Posted November 28, 2007

"The Mongolian Wakeup Call"
Posted November 16, 2007 

"Sanj Bayar -
The Prime Minister of Mongolia"

Posted November 15, 2007 

"Stalin & Chavez"
Posted November 9, 2007 

"Tagish Lake Gold Corp."
Posted November 1, 2007 

"Gold Indexed Bonds"
Posted October 11, 2007

"Jasper Mining Corporation"
Posted September 27, 2007

"Ghengis Kahn Returns"
Posted September 27, 2007

"Interview with Professor William Pfaffenberger - Torch River Resources"
Posted September 22, 2007 

"Interview with
Jim Davis - President of Leeward Capital Corporation"

Posted September 4, 2007 

"Interview with
David Hjerpe - Newmac Resources, Inc."

Posted August 27, 2007 

"The Age of Special "Corporate" Relationships"
Posted August 23, 2007

"Entrée Gold Inc."
Follow Up Report #1

Posted July 24, 2007

"Aldershot Resources Ltd."
Posted July 16, 2007 

"Portal Resources"
Posted June 12, 2007 

"Ghengis Kahn Was Hungarian"
Posted May 31, 2007

"Bayswater Uranium Corp."
Posted May 30, 2007 

"Brilliant Mining Corp."
Posted May 22, 2007

"Golden Valley Mines, Ltd"
Posted April 21, 2007

"Warren Buffett - Franklin Roosevelt"
Posted March 15, 2007

"Rubicon Minerals Corp."
Posted March 1, 2007

"Robert Friedland -
The Man of The Year"

Posted February 21, 2007

"Lexam Exploration, Inc."
Posted February 11, 2007

"My Father Died In Auschwitz"
Posted January 19, 2007

"WisdomTree Investments, Inc."
Posted December 26, 2006

"Entrée Gold Inc."
Posted December 13, 2006

"Aero Mechanical Services, Ltd"
Posted November 17, 2006

"This Year I"m Voting For Dick Nixon"
Posted November 7, 2006

"Global Options
Group, Inc."

Posted November 1, 2006

"The Arrival of the
Nickel Billionaires"

Posted October 18, 2006

"The Kennedy-Nixon debate revisited"
Posted October 4, 2006

"Brilliant Mining Corp."
Posted September 17, 2006

"A Matter of Reasonable Doubt"
Ken Lay - Enron

Posted August 30, 2006

"Silver Wheaton - SLW"
Posted August 28, 2006 

"Silver In The
Twenty-First Century"

Posted August 16, 2006

"The Age of Mediocrity"
Posted July 19, 2006

"Let There Be Sunshine"
Kirk Kerkorian

Posted July 12, 2006

"Oil & Gas
Energy Crisis Solution"

Posted July 3, 2006

"I Am An Immigrant!"
Posted June 7, 2006

"Northern Star
Mining Corp."

Posted May 19, 2006 

"Gateway Gold:
It"s A Gold Story"

Posted May 15, 2006

"Ken Lay's Legacy"
Posted May 8, 2006

"The Principal Guest Was Missing"
Posted April 25, 2006

"J.P. Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
Posted April 11, 2006

"Pocketful Of
Miracles"

Posted April 8, 2006 

"Midway Gold
Corporation
"
Posted March 23, 2006 

"Harvest Gold"
Posted March 2, 2006 
 
"Sparton Resources"
Posted March 1, 2006 

"Interview with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation
"
Posted February 22, 2006 

 
"A Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani
"
Posted February 15, 2006
 
"Your Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.

Posted February 9, 2006

"Other People"s Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
Posted January 28, 2006

"Northern Star Mining"
Posted January 16, 2006 
 
"Sonesta International Hotels Corporation"
Posted December 29, 2005 

"The Currency of Mass Destruction"
Posted December 5, 2005
 
"Bunker Hunt-Silver-China"
Posted November 28, 2005

"50 Relatives Worse Than Yours"
Posted November 14, 2005

"Then And Now"
Posted November 9, 2005 

"The Business of Hungary is Business!"
Posted October 31, 2005

"Mr. Prime Minister"
Posted October 13, 2005
 
"U.S. Gold Corp."
Posted September 29, 2005

"Orezone"
Posted September 23, 2005

"Mr Clarke -
Call In The Boys"

Posted September 12, 2005
 
"A Letter To
President Bush"

Posted September 8, 2005

"Mr. Smith Goes To Hungary"
Posted September 1, 2005
 
"Orko Gold"
Posted August 18, 2005

 "Near Hit"
Posted August 16, 2005

"An African Queen"
Posted August 11, 2005

"1848 and Beyond"
Posted August 4, 2005

 

 

Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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