"1848 and
Beyond"
posted
August 4, 2005
"An
African Queen"
posted August 11, 2005
"Near Hit"
posted August 16, 2005
"Orko
Gold"
posted August 18, 2005
"Mr.
Smith Goes To Hungary"
posted September 1, 2005
"A
Letter To
President Bush"
posted September 8, 2005
"Mr
Clarke -
Call In The Boys"
posted September 12, 2005
"Orezone"
posted September 23, 2005
"U.S.
Gold Corp."
posted September 29, 2005
"Mr.
Prime Minister"
posted October 13, 2005
"The
Business of Hungary is Business!"
posted October 31, 2005
"Then
And Now"
posted November 9, 2005
"50
Relatives Worse Than Yours"
posted November 14, 2005
"Bunker
Hunt-Silver-China"
posted November 28, 2005
"The
Currency of Mass Destruction"
posted December 5, 2005
"Sonesta
International Hotels Corporation"
posted December 29, 2005
"Northern
Star Mining"
posted January 16, 2006
"Other
People's Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
posted January 28, 2006
"Your
Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.
posted February 9, 2006
"A
Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani"
posted February 15, 2006
"Interview
with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation"
posted February 22, 2006
"Sparton
Resources"
posted March 1, 2006
"Harvest
Gold"
posted March 2, 2006
"Midway
Gold
Corporation"
posted March 23, 2006
"Pocketful
Of
Miracles"
posted April 8, 2006
"J.P.
Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
posted April 11, 2006
"The
Principal Guest Was Missing"
posted April 25, 2006
"Ken
Lay's Legacy"
posted May 8, 2006
"Gateway
Gold:
It's A Gold Story"
posted May 15, 2006
"Northern
Star
Mining Corp."
posted May 19, 2006
"I
Am An Immigrant!"
posted June 7, 2006
"Oil
& Gas
Energy Crisis Solution"
posted July 3, 2006
"Let
There Be Sunshine" -
Kirk Kerkorian
posted July 12, 2006
"The
Age of Mediocrity"
posted July 19, 2006
"Silver
In The
Twenty-First Century"
posted August 16, 2006
"Silver
Wheaton - SLW"
posted August 28, 2006
"A
Matter of Reasonable Doubt"
Ken Lay - Enron
posted August 30, 2006 |
|
BERAL,
INC.
Andrew G. Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, New York 10022
Telephone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail:
mlikar@aol.com
September
17, 2006
BRILLIANT
MINING CORP.
(BMC.V)
Price:
C. $.78 |
|
|
U.S.
$.70 |
|
|
Note:
The company is listed on Tier 1 on the
Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX). |
|
As
of June 30, 2006
|
|
Long-term
debt
|
|
|
|
| |
Convertible
debenture* |
$3,772,727 |
|
|
| |
Shareholders'
equity |
$21,512,499 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| *10%
coupon |
|
| Conversion
price: C. $1.00 |
|
|
The future of Brilliant Mining is complex.
It has a bright future of a nickel mining concern,
but
its financial structure, once simplified, creates
unusual
values. |
|
A Vancouver-based company whose main operation
is a 25% partnership with a nickel mining entity in Perth,
Australia, in fact a public company, in Australia, is in the
mining business.
The company was incorporated under the Alberta Business Corporation
Act on October 1, 1998 and has its shares listed for trading
on the TSX Venture Exchange. In the period ended June 30,
2006, the company acquired all of the issued and outstanding
shares of a private Australian company, Donegal Resources
Pty. Ltd. Donegal has a 25% interest in the unincorporated
Lanfranchi Joint Venture consisting of a producing nickel
mine property on an approximately 50km2 geographically continuous
mineral tenement package in Western Australia.
Prior to this acquisition, the principal business of the company
was the evaluation, acquisition and development of mineral
exploration properties. By acquiring Donegal the principal
business of the company has changed to the extraction and
sale of ore containing nickel.
The company’s nickel production is small in absolute
terms but it’s steadily growing as can be projected
for the next five years. To put the company in perspective,
it has approximately 80,00,000 fully diluted shares outstanding,
of which 26,000,000 would mature as tradable shares upon the
exercise of various warrants and convertible debt, the table
of which is presented below.
Potential
Shares Outstanding
June
30
Shares Outstanding |
47.5M |
Warrants Outstanding
($.69 Exercise Price)
|
25.7M |
Convertible
Debentures |
4.0M |
Options |
1.3 |
|
78.5M |
|
Based on the previous table, the warrant exercise
program and the current cash position is approximately $15
million. Accordingly, the current market cap, which is about
C. $70 million, is almost 20% backed by the $15 million cash
the company would have upon the exercise of all the warrants
and convertible debt.
This purely financial information indicates that there is
a possibility on pure financial fundamentals that a company
is emerging whose book value and cash value is equal to the
market price after about 4 successful years. At the same time
it is engaged with a powerful partner in the production of
nickel, which is projected to bring about $15-20 million profit
in fiscal 2007 and $30 million in fiscal 2009.
The financial aspect of the operating business is also very
impressive. Preliminary information from Brilliant’s
Australian partner and public sources indicate that the partnership
delivered approximately 1,208 tons of nickel in the June quarter,
which was actually later higher because the month of July
had a delivery of 572 tons of nickel. The following table
illustrates the big operating leverage and cash flow. Brilliant
has a 25% partnership in that production, the structure of
which we illustrate in the table below.
Utilizing the monthly figure of June -- 572 tons -- Brilliant
receives one-quarter in gross distribution, minus the smelter
fee and hedging cost.
Monthly
Delivery based on 6,000 tons of Ni metal per year
|
$
8,580,000 |
|
$
(2,750,000) |
| |
$
5,830,000 |
| |
$ 1,450,000 |
BMC
25% Revenue Annualized**
|
$
17,500,000 |
BMC
25% Post-hedged Revenue
Annualized***
|
$
6,500,000 |
|
* 500 Ore tons delivered x 88% recovery x
65% smelting net fee x $30,000/ton Ni price.
** Pre-hedged revenue.
*** Assuming 75% of production hedged at U.S. $6/lb.
*** Current Hedging Arrangement expires at the end of July
'07 production month.
However, it is expected that in the September quarter, the
figure would be 1,300 and the following March or May, it could
grow to 2,000 quarterly deliveries. The calculation at the
2,000 tons of quarterly delivery indicates a potential gross
revenue flow of over $60 million.
| Quarterly
delivery, effective delivery
|
2,000
tons x 88 x .65 = 1144 ton |
Price
|
$30,000/t $34.5M |
Monthly
tonnage revenue |
670 tons |
Smelter,
milling (40%) |
12,000,000
- $9.6M |
| Total
revenues for BMC annual cash flow |
$25
Million |
| 25%
to Brilliant |
6.25M |
| Annualized
to Brilliant |
25.0M |
|
Thus, at the over $30,000,000 per ton level,
annual income can be about $2.00 per share.
Going back to the balance sheet of Brilliant, and assuming
that the following fiscal year 2008 and 2007 would have a
delivery rate of $2,000 a quarter, we can create a possibility
that in the balance sheet of Brilliant by the end of fiscal
2008, there will be over $75 million cash and by calendar
2008, in December, the figure will be over $175 million.
|
Today |
Jan.
2007 |
Jan.,
2008 |
Dec.
2009 |
| Cash |
15 |
13 |
12 |
25 |
| If,
however, BMC’s 25% interest in the Australian
partnership can be sold (net) of taxes for $100M,
we are talking of a potential cash value of $155M. |
|
Let us now examine the future of this company,
not only in financial but in operating and macro-economic
level. The end of the Cold War began the development of the
so-called Communist world and China at a rate that none of
the political leaders of the last century have ever envisioned.
In a way, we could proudly say that the hidden reserves, the
determination and the constructive spirit of the six billion
people in this universe have defeated the destructive forces
of the 20th century.
The main leaders in this crusade are the working people of
China, India, Russia, Indonesia, the Middle East and now perhaps
beginning the 600 million African Continent. Three billion
new capitalists were born in the Far East and they have created
their own demand and their own desire to have steel created
to transform their society. See Table 8 on International Steel.
This demand is much greater than the demand for the past.
In 1941, Prime Minister Winston Churchill reminded the Japanese
that the 100 million steel production of the United States,
the 12 million steel production of England is greater than
the 7 million steel production of Japan and in a war, Japan
will be defeated.
Sixty years later, the world steel production, broken down
to some countries, is more than twice as big and it's growing.
It is not the space to describe the alternatives or non-alternatives
of stainless steel. Today 67 of the nickel production companies
satisfy the world's stainless steel demand, and that percentage
in the next five years is likely to be well over 70%.
Tight steel market strains supplier-customer relations: with
prices going up, the lead times stretching out, supplier-customer
relationships are being put to the test. In today's tight
market, customers have placed a premium on dependability of
supply and honest communication regarding availability and
delivery.
The Indian steel industry is poised for massive expansion.
The combination of strong consumption, growth, high steel
prices and a relatively unexploited iron ore raw material
base has already attracted massive investment.
The GPMS-MC global steel market price index appears to have
peaked. It stood at 167 in August compared to 193 in July,
brought down by weaker raw material and slab prices and strip
product prices in Asian and emerging markets. However, we
are not forecasting a major slide in the short term. It will
hold at or just below current levels through to November.
What we would like to state is that the demand for nickel
is unlikely to fall. We can't have an economy satisfying the
steel demands of Japan, Russia, India and China--and each
of them are growing--without delivering nickel. The production
of nickel, if it's assured internationally worldwide at a
certain level, creates a basis for nickel mining companies,
as their products are automatically taken up. In other words,
if you take the existing mines and the growing demand, the
first issue any economist will point out is that the price
is not going to go down but it's going to go up. If the acquisition
of nickel by the steel and other industries is an assured
factor, obviously more mining will happen.
It is not a coincidence that when investment advisors and
bankers suggest a nickel play, they have the following alternatives.
- Inco (N) - NYSE
$76
- The LME
- 3. The LME mini-contract -- which is cash.
Thursday, September
7, 2006
Positive sentiment supports base metals
LONDON, Sept. 6 (Reuters). Lead was at the front
of an advance in a solid day's trading at the
London Metal Exchange on Wednesday, dealers
said.
While most three-month contracts rose around
2%, led was up 4.7% to a peak for the day of
$1.345 per ton, its highest since February.
Traders said buyers were picking up contracts
across the board, and the new wave of speculative
money that fund managers talked about on Tuesday
was still coming into base metals.
"It's the whole complex," a ring dealer
said. "The reason behind it is there's
buying in the Far East, there's fund buying
and there's technical buying."
Lead closed kerb trading at $1.340 per ton,
up $55 on Tuesday's kerb.
Copper ended the kerb up 1.5% at $8.040.
|
|
Very few publications have pointed out of
the emerging new industry, mainly publicly owned nickel companies
in Australia, Canada, and South America that can provide an
investment alternative for people who want to participate
in the popularity and prosperity and the future of the nickel
industry.
It so happens that when we look at some of these companies
like Brilliant Mining of their partner, Sali Mali Mining Ltd.
in Perth, Australia, we find that their respective multiple
is unusually low for a solid, steady mining entity. Not only
do they represent solid values, but oversized current and
definitely potential cash value which hardly accompanies an
industry in its early stages. To place Brilliant financial
in this picture, we have created an evaluation which we present
in the following table.
Potential
Value of Brilliant Mining
| Current
price: U.S. $.70 |
|
Value
(with interest) |
| |
Cash
(current) |
$15M |
$20M |
| |
Calendar
2007 profit |
$17M |
$20M |
| |
Calendar
2008 & 2009 profit |
Value
$25M |
| |
Value
of 25% partnership |
|
+100 |
| |
|
Total |
$165M |
| |
|
+
interest |
$180M |
|
Looking back on comparative thoughts in the
investment field, when an industry suddenly emerges and captures
from virtually infinitesimal market valuation, stockholders'
attention and creates large oversized capital gains, I want
to quote two examples.
4. In the middle
or late 1990s, Amazon and other Internet companies broke into
the limelight.
Most of the companies were not rich.
5. In the middle
of the 1960s, Xerox introduced the Copier 914. It was originally
estimated
to have an unlimited market. Many times between 1964 and 2006,
I have seen
in describing companies or industries that maybe a Xerox type
phenomenon has broken
the stock market and the economy. Some worked, some didn’t.
It is for the intelligence and the researchability
of the reader to evaluate the figures and the facts we have
provided and answer the question himself: Would this new publicly-owned
nickel company represent a Xerox type of phenomenon which
could make a major difference in any portfolio?
DISCLAIMER
Information
contained herein is based on data obtained from
recognized statistical services, issuers reports
or communications or other sources believed
to be reliable. However, such information has
not been verified by us and we do not make any
representation to its accuracy or completeness.
Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes
only current opinions which are subject to change.
BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts
or employees may have positions in the securities
or commodities referred to herein, and may as
principal or agent buy and sell such securities
or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer
or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director
for companies mentioned in this report. Neither
the information nor any comment expressed shall
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy any securities or commodities
mentioned herein. There may be instances when
fundamental, technical and competitive opinions
may not be in concert. This firm may from time
to time perform investment banking or other
services for or which investment banking or
other businesses from any company mentioned
in this report |
|
Andrew Racz

Dated: September 17, 2006
(Article
37 - posted September 17, 2006)
e-mail: mlikar@aol.com
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