BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Bullion Management Group

May 11, 2009

(BMG)

BMG BullionFund

The world's first and only open-end mutual fund trust that invests exclusively in equal proportions of unencumbered, fully allocated gold, silver and platinum bullion. BMG BullionFund's investment objective is to provide a secure, convenient, low-cost, low-risk alternative for investors seeking the benefits of capital preservation, appreciation, portfolio diversification and hedging that only bullion ownership can offer. It provides a free weekly newsletter. www.bmsinc.ca/content/view/218/34

President & CEO
Mr. Nick Barisheff

Provides the public with gold bars for either delivery or storage.

A private company.

ANDREW RACZ [Q]: It's a pleasure talking to you. Let me ask the following questions. What is the similarity between you and the Chinese government?

NICK BARISHEFF [A]: We're both buying bullion.

Q:  Personally, why are you buying bullion?

A:  I guess there's many multi-faceted reasons and one is that just from a portfolio diversification and balance point of view. The way we think every portfolio should have at least 10 percent in bullion at all times. So that's reason number one. That's just a starting point. Secondly, you want to hold bullion to hedge against a variety of things, inflation, deflation, currencies, and even the conventional financial markets. Thirdly, we're in a bull market for bullion and many commodities. Although we've pulled back on some of the commodities, we're in a long-term bull market for gold.

Q:  I trust you are over thirty years old.

A:  Yes.

Q:  If you are over thirty years old, you must remember many monetary events over the last decades. When did gold became popular? I went through a New York Times article that whenever there was a recession in America, that was exactly the time gold went up, 1958, 1968, 1977. In other words, it's always tied to bad times.

Table 2

1958

Recession

1968

Vietnam

1977

Jimmy Carter's hyper-inflation

1980

Silver at $50. Bunker Hunt.

Q:  Yes. Nixon closed the gold window.

A:  Right.

Q:  But this article pointed out with statistics that it is bad times when gold is popular. Now, on a personal level I was very little when I survived the Second World War. I remember 1946 when my stepfather and his two cousins every night were dividing up the loot from the black market, Swiss francs, British pounds, Napoleon gold. That is, at the age of seven, for the first time I got interested in gold. My mother always wanted to send me to bed but I came out and was watching the action.

A:  The issue there is that during really bad times, bullion, gold and coins and so on, is the only thing that retains its liquidity and purchasing power.

Q:   You are right! We had Napoleon Gold -- so my mother would buy milk and butter. My younger brother was only five years old -- he needed cheese and chicken.

Let's jump to 2007-2008-2009. All the time in the past, there were bad times, people bought gold, then things evened themselves out, people sold gold and in 1988 was the beginning of a long decline in gold. And somehow or another, mankind has settled onto living with what we have. Now you take the Chinese. The Chinese first of all accumulated and are accumulating a lot of dollars. Anybody who has two trillion dollars, a huge population and is getting into every kind of international trade, has to do some planning. So what do the Chinese do at the moment? Do you follow their purchases in gold?

A:  Yes. They've done a deal with Russia for the oil, they've done a deal with Rio Tinto for a supply of uranium. So they're basically securing their future commodity supplies.

Q:  In terms of gold, the numbers are as follows. The United States has 8,300 tons.

A:  Theoretically.

Q:  Okay. The IMF has 3,500 tons, Germany and France 3,000, Italy 2,000--they probably pledged it already, and the Chinese had only 500. By now, a year later, they have 1,000, and they are negotiating to buy the 440 tons from the IMF that the IMF is supposed to sell this year. At that time, we could say, okay, it's the largest country in the world, it has 1,500 tons of gold. And they are doing something different. A swap arrangement with currencies to weaken the international use of the dollar. How do you interpret that?

A:  I think they're just protecting their position because with the amount of U.S. dollars that are now being created, and the number is increasing daily, the dollar is clearly being debased and it's tantamount to a default. So they need to move out of the dollar. By moving into gold, they're and not weakening their dollar holdings because they're buying gold in dollars. It's not like moving into the euro. By buying gold, it doesn't weaken the dollar, it just drives the gold price higher.

Q: If you take the next two years and let's say the Chinese reach 3,000 tons, and this currency swap arrangement takes on a bigger and bigger pace, is there a possibility that there will be a big change in the monetary world?

A:  I think that there will be a big change. I don't know when, but the big change will be that the U.S. dollar will cease to become the world's reserve currency at some point.

Q:  And what does that mean for gold?

A:  That means there'll be no truly safe alternative. Right now the U.S. dollar has been to a certain extent a safe haven asset for much of the rest of the world, but once it fails then there's nowhere else to go but to gold and silver, and to a lesser degree, platinum, as currencies.

Top Countries' Gold Reserves

U.S.

8.13

Germany

3.44

IMF

3.22

France

3.03

Italy

2.45

Switzerland

1.63

Netherlands

0.78

European Central Bank

0.77

Japan

0.76

China

0.60

It's interesting how, when we celebrate achievements like the Olympics, the award is always bronze, silver, gold or platinum. Yet when it comes to investing, people declare that they wouldn't touch gold (or other precious metals) with a ten-foot pole. If gold was so worthless, why don't we give Olympic paper certificates to the winners? Given the current state of the economy, now is an excellent time to diversify using precious metals. Stocks and bonds are correlated. People believe that they are non-correlated, but studies since 1969 show that they are correlated -- stocks and bonds have a tendency to go in the same direction. That means an investor needs a product that goes in the opposite direction, something on the opposite side of the coin, so to speak. That something is precious metals.

Q:  So in other words, first the Chinese may be building up a commodity bank while they still absorb all the dollars they want to absorb, not only what America wants to absorb, it would lead to a lower price for dollars, the Chinese will take dollars in whatever they have, but in going forward it will be maybe a different currency mix and commodities, particularly gold, which would decide the trading system.

A:  It could very well be. To some extent, it was similar after Nixon took the U.S. dollar off of gold convertibility. The problem was that the Arab oil-producing countries were previously converting their dollar holdings into gold directly by sending them back to the U.S. After closing the gold window, they were then forced to go to the open market and buy gold and then we had an escalating price of oil and gold. It began in 1973. By the end of 1975, gold hit $200 an ounce, a six-fold increase from the $35 fixed price -- set by Roosevelt in 1939.

Q:  So you attribute Nixon's August 15, 1971 act as the precursor of a vast increase in oil prices and gold and silver prices.

A:  I guess that's one in a series. I think the whole chain of events starts with the creative of the Federal Reserve. Then in 1933, the banning of U.S. citizens from owning gold and taking gold backing off the dollar for citizens. Then the Bretton Woods Agreement. So all these were a chain of events getting us to where we are today.

Q:  You know that there's one person still alive in America who could probably tell us what went on on August 15, 1971.

A:  Apparently you were working with Nixon at the time.

Q:  It took me three years to meet him. Eventually, I made an interview with his publisher. I finally met him in 1981. In 1979, I was absolutely convinced that Connolly of Texas would be the next president. I wrote one letter after another, I wrote speeches, etc., and never got a single reply. One day I got a call by a secretary. Mr. Racz, can you answer a phone call at 4:45 from Mr. Spencer? So I said sure, but who on earth is Mr. Spencer? He's president of Citibank. So I got nervous and I said, listen, everything is paid, credit cards, mortgage, I said I pay all my bills, there is no problem whatsoever. So he said look, go down to Washington at 8 o'clock to the Sheraton. Ben Barnes will take care of it. We need a speech by tomorrow at 10 o'clock for the Governor. That's the first time I met Ben Barnes, the former lieutenant governor of Texas, Speaker of the House at the age of 26, an entrepreneur, and he knew everything that Connolly was doing all his life. And Ben told me the story of how Connolly persuaded Nixon to do these complex transactions and he said that Dr. Arthur Burns at the Federal Reserve opposed everything. He said, "Nobody will do business with us, nobody will trust us, the market will fall to 600. I do various swap arrangements with other central bankers." And Ben said to the governor when they were alone, listen, and I didn't understand a word he was saying. Connolly then said that the President wouldn't understand it either. And Connolly won and he completely changed the financial world. Actually, the world Nixon and Connolly created in 1971 survived about thirty years.

A:  To some extent also I'm not sure there was much choice, because if you look at the previous years leading up 1971, the U.S. gold reserves, I've got a year-by-year central bank holdings chart for most of the countries going back to the 1920's, but what you saw was ahead of 1971, if I recall correctly I think at a peak the U.S. had 22,000 tons of gold. That was getting depleted rapidly to where it ended up at 8,000 in 1971. So one of the things was that if they didn't close the gold window, the U.S. would end up with no gold and then even less credibility for its currency. So I think that was the lesser of two evils.

Q: Connolly and I talked about it, and he said exactly what you've said. Ben said that the Europeans are friends, and Connolly said but we can go bankrupt on the friendships.

A:  Well, France and England were converting most of their U.S. dollars and demanding gold at the time.

Q:  If we have a monetary system in five year's time where not only gold, but you mentioned the same thing, that not only will gold be higher but commodities will be valuable. Then interestingly, the exploration companies are probably the best buy on the market, because that's the only way to supply both commodities, gold and silver. You have to dig and people are going to look for it. You can't go to the Comex to get more silver and copper.

A:  The only risk of that, which is also a risk for bullion, is that you're aware that Canada has practically no gold in its reserves?

Q:  Yes, I know.

A:  When our former prime minister, John Chretien, was asked about that because he was finance minister of a previous liberal government when this program started, because it was being done almost surreptitiously for many years when Canada was getting rid of its gold reserve. Same thing happened with Australia, New Zealand, the Netherlands, and finally England, which is kind of coincidental that they're all the closest allies of the United States and they're the ones that sold all the gold.

Chretien was asked what was the rationale and the thinking behind this, his answer was to say what's the point of us holding gold in the central bank? We've got plenty of gold in the ground. And the dots you have to connect there is to stay, well, the gold in the ground isn't the government's, unless you plan to tax it to death or confiscate it or expropriate it. So one of the risks of that issue which is happening around the world on the mining exploration companies, is that one way or another the countries where this exists they're increasing their royalty rates, they're nationalizing. Take a look at Mexico. Mexico's 40 percent of their government revenues comes from the oil and primarily Canterelle. It's depleting very rapidly, and in three years Mexico is going to become an oil importer. So what's it going to do? Well, the next best thing it's got is silver. So in all likelihood, for the government to survive it's going to have to increase its royalty rates, taxation, nationalize it, do whatever. So we get into a certain amount of risk on that front, even though theoretically I agree with you.

Q:  There's no question in the 21st century the values of currencies, gold and commodities, will be rearranged and will actually bring about very serious social dislocation.

A:  That's right. And I notice, by the way, that you'd written an article on water. When I took a look at this before I established the company in a current fund and other investment products--this goes back to 1998--at that time I'd concluded that we were going to be in a bull market in precious metals, in energy, oil, natural gas and uranium, and thirdly, water. Water is already in many places priced higher than gasoline. I think your article there was also that that coming problem is far more serious.

Q:  These problems are far more serous. The only comment I have is that in this century, the value system will bring about tremendous social changes. Undoubtedly it will create opportunities for many people to make money. But one should feel frightened because if you go back to the previous century, late twenties, early thirties, I asked two of my uncles about what it was like in their time and both of them said, in our time there was Hitler. And Hitler created the opportunity for Russia and basically made Stalin one of the most powerful men in the world. He created unbelievable suffering, a hundred million people dead, and we survived. There was a time in the 20th century which looked happy, like the time Margaret Thatcher and Reagan were in power and disturbances were limited. And we survived. Looking to the 21st century, I think your children and grandchildren, my children and grandchildren will only be told they will survive.

A:  So in case of survival, well, my father didn't survive. So I think that, yes, if you're aware of it then your chances of survival are much better, and we're going to see a massive wealth transfer event in which case, yes, some people die, some people survive. But in the process we'll change in terms of fewer people with wealth and different people with wealth than we have today.

Q:  Yes. It changes. One thing is sure. In my opinion, in the next ten years gold will have such a growing important function at the higher level that very few people can visualize today. Your famous friend in Toronto is one of them, my friend Robert McEwen.

A:  He's one of the few. He and I had lunch quite a few years ago, when I was first starting the fund, and he was one of the few people in the mining business that understood that was he was mining was money and not the equivalent of copper and zinc. Most of the miners don't understand that.

Put ten percent of your money into gold, and hope it doesn't work by comparing ownership of bullion to house insurance: A responsible homeowner willingly pays insurance premiums every year; but still hopes the house doesn't burn down. A few of the many problems lurking on the horizon include the real estate bubble, $200 trillion in derivatives exposure, rising oil prices, waning oil supplies and increases int he money supply through expansion of credit at all levels. No matter what the price in 2005, it is still wise to put ten percent of your money into gold, and hope it doesn't work.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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