BERAL, INC. Andrew Racz Director of Research 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C New York, NY 10022 Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944 E-mail: mlikar@aol.com
Click Here
October 22, 2010
In the early part of October, 2010, the issue of the scarcity of rare elements broke into the world. We have suddenly discovered, although we knew it before, that rare elements are desperately needed in hybrid automobiles particularly, electric cars, in calculating machines, in windmills, in a whole series of machinery. We have also learned that these elements which feed and keep feeding the machinery of the 21st century, are 95-97% mined in China. The reserves of the 17 rare elements are limited. However, rechargeable batteries, televisions, automobile exhaust systems, rely on rare elements, Apple Computer, the later products and the rapidly growing calculating machines, iPads, that are being used all over the world.
When 95% of the production is controlled by one country, China, which has the greatest currency reserves in the world, $2.5 trillion, the issue gets first into politics, then onto the front pages, and finally in the stock markets. The facts are as follows.
U.S. Representative Edward Markey asked the Obama administration to report on China's curbs on the export of rare earth elements and ramifications for the military and U.S. clean energy producers.
Markey, the chairman of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, said in a letter today to four Cabinet members that he is concerned by reports China is imposing additional restrictions on rare earth materials.
"I am troubled by this recent turn of events," said Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat. Dependence on China for rare earths and that country's "willingness to use this reliance for leverage in wider international affairs poses a potential threat to American economic and national security interests," he said.
In rare elements the supply is less than the demand, and in this case a shortage which reverberates all over the world. The demand for rare earths is expected to exceed supply by 40,000 tons annually unless major new sources are developed. The actual production outside China is controlled by a few companies such as Molycorp, NYSE, MCT on the New York Stock Exchange, and Rare Element Resources listed also on the NYSE under the symbol of REE. The market capitalizations of these two companies are listed in the table below.
There is a whole series of companies outside the Western hemisphere, of which the largest is Lynas. The individual countries basically outside China are operating on a combined basis. The demand is so strong for the product that contracts will be handed out irrespective of geographic considerations. For instance, Wyoming is a very good area for rare elements. At the same time, Lynas has deposits in western Australia and the demand has now put into motion research for new deposits all over the world. Lynas is being financed by JPMorgan, with an initial investment of $500M. It may have a market cap of $2.5 billion.
There are a few major companies in the picture, but individual smaller entities such as Cache Exploration has its own niche. He intends to outline Rare Earth's mineral deposits and develop these deposits towards production as quickly as possible. This requires a tremendous amount of capital. At the same time, what is also happening in the world is the projected future demand is creating a valuation for the deposits that have been and are likely to be discovered, but the market capitalization of companies like Cache are growing by leaps and bounds.
CACHE EXPLORATION HAS EXPLOSIVE POTENTIAL
Cache with its $7 million plus market cap is in fact quite an advanced rare earth metal exploration company. Let us not forget that it is unofficially stated that 60% of rare earth deposits have not been explored. The value of such properties may be over $10 billion. Furthermore, there are probably less than 20 rare earth specialists in the world whose knowledge and diligence can lead to major changes in the market price of a company like Cache.
Cache engaged Dr. David Lentz as a chief geologist and director of the company. His initial remarks are worth for consideration. Dr. Lentz is head of Cache Exploration and heads the Technical Committee for Cache. He has extensive experience with a variety of uranium and rare earth element-bearing deposits. He has provided applied research advice on Quest Uranium's (now Quest Rare Minerals) George River and Strange Lake claims. Quest's stock price increased from 10 cents to $6 and has recently raised $46 million. Dr. Lentz's experience goes back to 1986 with his doctorial studies of U-REE pegmatite’s and carbonatites in the Grenville of Ontario and Quebec, and when in 1989 he was oriented to the Thor Lake Property by GSC geologists conducting research on those deposits, while employed by the GSC. Thor Lake was then Canada's leading rare earth deposit.
Quest Rare Minerals
Cache Exploration, Inc.
QRM.V
CAY.V
$5.00
$0.35
Shares outstanding: 49.5M
Shares outstanding: 20M
Market cap: $247.5M
Market cap: $7M
Note: Cache has a long way to go.
Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. (QRM.V) Overview
Canadian-based company focused on the discovery and development of new world-class Rare Earth Elements (REE) deposit opportunities. Currently advancing several high-potential rare earth projects in Canada's premier rare earth exploration areas.
Capital Structure (October 8, 2010)
Stock Exchange Symbol
QRM (TSV-Venture)
Shares outstanding - basic
44.8 million
Shares outstanding - FD
49.5 million
52-week Trading Range
$1.65 - $5.57
Last traded
$4.80
Daily Trading Volume
487,863 shares
Market Capitalization
$215.0 million
Working Capital
$3.4 million
Dr. David Lentz - Director
Dr. Lentz is a professional geoscientist registered with the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of New Brunswick and is a qualified person under the meaning of National Instrument 43 101. Dr. Lentz is an full professor on the Fredericton campus of UNB and holds the UNB Economic Geology Chair. Before coming to UNB, Dr. Lentz worked as a researcher with the Geological Survey of Canada and the New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources. He is a leader and contributor within the geological community and is one of the strongest promoters of the Geological Association of Canada worldwide. For more than 20 years, he has been an active volunteer in the field of geology and has made many outstanding contributions to GAC's Mineral Deposits Division. Dave Lentz has extensive experience with a variety of mineral deposit systems, in particular U and REE bearing deposits.
Dr. Lentz's experience spread to the Bokan Mountain deposit in Alaska which is owned by Ucore Uranium. In April 2009 Ucore released an early stage mineral studies of uranium and rare earth.
In order to demonstrate how cheap the common stock of Cache is, we have made the above two comparisons. Medallion is tied to Rare Earth Resources. Rare Earth Resources is the most popular North American rare earth company.
Cache's property acquisitions are:
Fundamentals
Rare earths, comprised of about 17 elements, serve as vital components in everything from lasers, optical fibers and petroleum refining, to automotive parts, computer monitors and televisions. The following is a list of rare earth investment opportunities.
"The increasing need by the electronics industry for special metals with defined characteristics, such as inertness, conductivity and fusibility, has seen a revival in demand for [rare earths]," Nomura strategists said.
That demand combined with the tension between China and Japan last month to boost prices for the rare earths worldwide.
Shin Etsu Chemical Co. in August announced a 20% price increase for its main product, rare earth magnets, noting that prices for neodymium had climbed 2.5 times from the price seen in the summer of 2009, while prices for dysprosium had doubled since the beginning of this year.
Nomura reports that the price of rare earths has soared by 200% over the past three months.
And with China the world's biggest producer, accounting for more than 95% of global supplies of rare earths, it could be at an advantage.
"China would withstand the inflation from higher prices due to massive volume of capacity and output [of rare earths], and control over most of the life cycle of the finished goods that the planet can't live without," said Richard Hastings, macro economist and consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities. "All of this encourages more investment into China, from abroad but especially internally in China."
Cache's exploration mandate is to explore historically known rare earth mineral deposits that are located near infrastructure and in politically stable locations. Cache's project includes Wellsport Properties near St. John's, New Brunswick, the Course Hills REE Property near Grand Lapiere, Newfoundland, and New Hills REE property in Newfoundland.
Each of these are exploration programs where the development is conducted rapidly, particularly if the money which is required for phase 1 to phase 2 or 3 of the program is available in the capital markets. As an example, the company was given 131 claims surrounding Wellsport in New Brunswick. The company's chief scientific advisor, Dr. David Lentz, has created the technical information for exploration.
For exploration companies, qualified scientists, experts in rare elements is of tremendous advantage. Furthermore, the times in which we live clearly state that we live in a competitive world in which a small company like Cache has to acquire territories and develop them as fast as possible. There is an increasing world demand and the fact that China has 95% of the world's supply has not changed and is unlikely to change in the period ahead.
China and You
Right now, China controls the market for rare earths, a group of 17 key elements used in many of today's modern technological devices. Precision guided weapons, night vision, radar systems, hybrid cars and wind turbines: All rely, in part, on rare earth elements.
Rechargeable batteries, for example, need lanthanum, while polished glass for flat screen TVs and the like require cerium. Automobile exhaust systems rely on rhodium, and high powered magnetic motors necessitate neodymium and dysprosium. These metallic elements — and twelve others — have unique properties crucial for miniaturization, laser and energy efficiency.
Last year, China produced 97% of the world's rare earths, sparking concerns. And the situation has only grown more tense recently, after Japanese traders reported their rare earth shipments were halted during a diplomatic dispute with China.
The Biggest Global Producer of Rare Earth Elements
Enter Bautou, right at the center of Chinese production of these types of rare earth elements. And Inner Mongolia Bautou Steel Rare Earth Hi Tech Company holds the spotlight there. It has quietly grown into the world's biggest producer of such minerals, contributing nearly half of China's production.
Yet the U.S. moved in the opposite direction for years. Once the world's leading producer, it now mines none of it, mostly because of onerous environmental regulations. The government has begun to look into starting up again.
The Grand Picture
According to our research, the following represents the current future production and world demand. Such figures decide the fate of a small exploration company that wants to break into the world picture. The first issue about which we have to be very clear is that the various properties which are listed in the table below may only be the beginning for Cache. The company is designed in its current format to be represented by 11 million shares, 10 million warrants, and a market cap of $7 million. A potential public offering of 5 million shares and warrants would increase the capital base.
This makes sense since most geologists think up to two thirds of the world's deposits of rare earths lie unexploited, outside of China. That?s a good thing too, considering how it uses much of what it produces for its own burgeoning high tech industries.
As China grows, it will have less and less to sell to other countries. Recognizing this, Japanese companies have taken to scouring Canada, India, Australia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Brazil and Mongolia to find the next big deposits.
Depending on management skill and determination, there is an increase in market capitalization which can be utilized for raising capital and acquiring extra territories. We have no doubt that with more money and higher market capitalization, the company will acquire other exploration properties such as we listed before, and in six to twelve months it may become a totally different entity.
Political Climate
There is no question that rare elements is and will remain a political football. We have the following assumption:
The Political Importance of Cache
It is very unusual but it is essential that a management of a small company like Cache picture itself as the Allied troops were in Normandy. The Western countries under General Eisenhower had no bearing in Europe until they landed in Normandy. This is where Cache comes into the picture. A small company with the strength and determination of several public offerings, starting as with a $7 million market cap, could put itself into a $20 market cap company, acquire a following, acquire political and mining contacts so it can put itself in the picture of mining rare elements. Once the path is established, it has a place at the negotiation table.
Putting all the Caches together, the United States will have power to negotiate with the Chinese on rare elements. Cache is well on its way to mine rare elements. In politics, just as in finance, power counts.
If I may use a historical example, since I started with one, the most startling point of the 1938 Munich Agreement was when Marshall Stalin said "No chair for me". Cache or other companies has no place at the negotiating table unless they work hard, look for deposits, raise money, mine the deposits, and represent in toto a negotiating posture towards the Chinese.
Another historical example, a man who was behind America's rare earths minerals. Ross Bhappu, is a little known commodity investor who acquired through his equity firm Resource Capital a position of $110 million in Molycorp. That investment today is worth about a billion dollars and put Molycorp in the picture. Molycorp is now mentioned in every article of rare elements history. There is nothing unusual about the intellect of Ross Bhappu.
My closing remark is that rare elements will not disrupt the world economy, but in fact, has to develop provided more people like Ross make up their minds that to develop rare elements mining from very little to start with is a good business and an opportunity.
We do not bet against the United States. We fought the Second World War -- we will be the most powerful nation in electric cars and iPads.
Rare earth element stocks have been surging lately. Once unknown to the general investing public, shares in companies that mine these special resources are now being snatched up without pause. There are few of them that are public, and even fewer that are currently making money.
It's a high risk high reward sector to invest in. But if you have the risk capital to utilize, it's worth rolling the dice when the table is tilted in your favor. Knowing when that is, well, is anybody's guess. This kind of high risk, high reward scenario is the nature of speculation.
Rare earths a group of 17 chemical elements that you can find in the periodic table are used in everything from wind turbines to televisions, iPods, and hybrid cars. Almost all technology devices utilize them in some way, so you can see why demand for shares in companies that can bring rare earths to market is so rampant.
Yet, there are few REE mining companies in the world outside of China even as demand for the precious metals soars. Consider these mining companies the clean energy equivalent of oil exploration and drilling companies. If you think there's a future for clean energy, by extension you think there is a future for rare earth mining companies. Companies such as Cache Exploration, Inc. should be reviewed.
It is the opportunity created by the Brave New World of the newly born Rare-Earth Universe.
Disclaimer
Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.
Archive
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. Posted February 01, 2012
QMC Quantum Minerals Posted january 19, 2012
African Metals Corp. Posted December 21, 2011
The Crisis That Almost Wasn’t Posted December 7, 2011
DNI METALS, INC Posted November 18, 2011
The Crisis That Almost Wasn't Posted November 15, 2011
Ocean Power Technologies, Inc Posted October 19, 2011
The Mongolian Economic Miracle Posted October 12, 2011
H. Hunt The Son of Bunker Hunt Posted August 24,2011
Sandstorm Gold (SNDXF - NASDAQ) Posted August 15, 2011
"Silver At $200 Posted July 29, 2011
"First Majestic Silver Corp Posted July 26, 2011
"Interview with Brian Kirwin, President American Bonanza Gold Corp" Posted July 21, 2011 "Interview with Ian Foreman President Yale Resources Ltd." Posted June 16,2011
"Interview with Brandon Mckee Callinan Mines By Andrew Racz " Posted June 1, 2011
"Andrew Thompson Interview Soltoro Ltd." Posted May 15, 2011
"Great Panther Silver Limited" Posted March 29, 2011
"The 21st Century's Marshall Plan" Posted March 17, 2011
"Interview With Houston Hunt" Posted February 23, 2011
"Esperanza Resources Corp." Posted February 23, 2011
"Douglas Lake Minerals" Posted January 11, 2011
"Do not bet against Casablanca" Posted December 10, 2010
"Palladium" Posted December 8, 2010
"Full Circle" Posted November 19, 2010
"REMX - NYSE ARCA - MV.RARE EARTH/STRATEGIC METALS" Posted November 8, 2010
SilverCrest Mines, Inc. Posted October 26, 2010
Cache Exploration, Inc. Posted October 22, 2010
Silvore Fox Minerals Corp. Posted September 29, 2010
Almaden Minerals, Ltd. Posted August 16, 2010
"The Path Of A Hungarian Immigrant" Posted August 12, 2010
"Interview With Mark Hazout - Silver Dragon Resources" Posted June 24, 2010
"Who Owns Whom At The Final Tally" Posted June 15, 2010
"The World Needs Bunker Hunt." Posted May 24, 2010
"Arafura Resources " Posted April 15, 2010
"MF Holdings LTD" Posted April 7, 2010
"Quest Uranium Corporation" Posted April 5, 2010
"Lynas Corporation, LTD" Posted March 19, 2010
"Rare Element Resources LTD" Posted February 9, 2010
"Mexco Energy Corporation" Posted January 4, 2010
"Claude Resources" Posted December 16, 2009
"The Silver Spirit" Posted November 25, 2009
"... from Casablanca to Monte Carlo." Posted November 20, 2009
"Sutter Gold Mining, Inc." Posted November 16, 2009
"Whose Friends Are They Anyway?" Posted November 4, 2009
"U.S. Energy Corporation" Posted October 28, 2009
"Harris & Harris" Posted October 13, 2009 "They Made A Difference" Posted September 30, 2009
"Bridge Bancorp, Inc" Posted September 22, 2009
"Entree Gold - September 2009" Posted September 3, 2009
"Who Lost Mongolia" Posted August 16, 2009
"Mongolian Prime Minister Sanj Bayar - A politician of the 21st century" Posted July 16, 2009
"Romios Gold" Posted July 7, 2009
"The Grand Alliance" Posted July 6, 2009
"Sandstorm Resources, Inc." Posted June 22, 2009
"Ireland, Inc." Posted June 16, 2009
"The Brave New World! - Gold at $1000" Posted June 5, 2009
"Claude Resources, Inc." Posted May 28, 2009
"Bullion Management Group" Posted May 11, 2009
"Golden Hope Mines, Inc. - Retraction" Posted May 4, 2009
"Silvercrest Mines, Inc." Posted April 1, 2009
"Silver Dragon Resources" Posted February 27, 2009
"In Gold We Trust" Posted February 26, 2009
"Entree Gold: An Unusual Asset Accumulation" Posted February 20, 2009
"The Ultimate Colorful Fate of Edmond Safra, Bernie Madoff, and Governor Bill Richardson" Posted January 12, 2009
"Silvermex Resources, LTD" Posted December 13, 2008
"Prime Minister of Mongolia" Posted December 11, 2008
"US Gold Corporation" Posted December 1, 2008
"Rubicon Minerals" Posted November 5, 2008
"Gold Coins & The Money Game" Posted October 29, 2008
"Gold and the Chinese Millennium" Posted October 20, 2008
"JNR Resources, Inc." Posted September 30, 2008
"Three Immigrants In Front Of The Court" Posted September 24, 2008
"Governor Walter J. Hickel Interview" Posted September 11, 2008
"The Alaskan Queen" Posted September 9, 2008
"Evercore Partners, Inc." Posted September 3, 2008
"Stalin In The White House" Posted September 2, 2008
"Cal-Maine Foods Inc." Posted August 4, 2008
"The Mongolian Revolution" Posted July 10, 2008
"Mongolian Newsletter, First Edition" Posted July 2, 2008
"Goldsource Mines, Inc." Posted July 1, 2008
"The Douglas Lake Story In The Age Of Fear" Posted June 25, 2008
"Mongolia: The 10th Richest Country in the World" Posted June 10, 2008
"North American Gem, Inc." Posted June 5, 2008
"The Emergence of Tanzania" Posted June 4, 2008
"Tanzania - An Up & Coming Mineral & Agricultural Producer In Africa" Posted June 2, 2008
"Western Potash Corp. (WPX-VSE) " Posted May 12, 2008
"Judy Garland & The Subprime Crisis" Posted April 29, 2008
"Altek Power Corp." Posted April 27, 2008
"Letter to Prime Minister of Mongolia" Posted April 24, 2008
"The Mongolian Manifesto" Posted April 4, 2008
"Prime Minister Sanj Bayar of Mongolia Receives The Nobel Peace Prize" Posted March 17, 2008
"Olympus Pacific Minerals, Inc." Posted February 28, 2008
"Tanzania Gold - Douglas Lake Minerals - Harp Sangha" Posted February 21, 2008
"Warren Buffett Receives A Call From Franklin Roosevelt" Posted February 19, 2008
"Gold At 2000!!" Posted February 14, 2008
"Entrée Gold, Inc" Posted February 11, 2008
"The Unexpected Mongolian Dilemma" Posted February 2, 2008
"Mongolian Gold" Posted January 8, 2008
"Sir, Do Not Abdicate" Posted December 27, 2007
"No More Munich - The Mongolian Version of 1938" Posted December 11, 2007
"Watergate Saved Nixon's Life" Posted November 28, 2007
"The Mongolian Wakeup Call" Posted November 16, 2007
"Sanj Bayar - The Prime Minister of Mongolia" Posted November 15, 2007
"Stalin & Chavez" Posted November 9, 2007
"Tagish Lake Gold Corp." Posted November 1, 2007
"Gold Indexed Bonds" Posted October 11, 2007
"Jasper Mining Corporation" Posted September 27, 2007
"Ghengis Kahn Returns" Posted September 27, 2007
"Interview with Professor William Pfaffenberger - Torch River Resources" Posted September 22, 2007
"Interview with Jim Davis - President of Leeward Capital Corporation" Posted September 4, 2007
"Interview with David Hjerpe - Newmac Resources, Inc." Posted August 27, 2007
"The Age of Special "Corporate" Relationships" Posted August 23, 2007
"Entrée Gold Inc." Follow Up Report #1 Posted July 24, 2007
"Aldershot Resources Ltd." Posted July 16, 2007
"Portal Resources" Posted June 12, 2007
"Ghengis Kahn Was Hungarian" Posted May 31, 2007
"Bayswater Uranium Corp." Posted May 30, 2007
"Brilliant Mining Corp." Posted May 22, 2007
"Golden Valley Mines, Ltd" Posted April 21, 2007
"Warren Buffett - Franklin Roosevelt" Posted March 15, 2007
"Rubicon Minerals Corp." Posted March 1, 2007
"Robert Friedland - The Man of The Year" Posted February 21, 2007
"Lexam Exploration, Inc." Posted February 11, 2007
"My Father Died In Auschwitz" Posted January 19, 2007
"WisdomTree Investments, Inc." Posted December 26, 2006
"Entrée Gold Inc." Posted December 13, 2006
"Aero Mechanical Services, Ltd" Posted November 17, 2006
"This Year I"m Voting For Dick Nixon" Posted November 7, 2006
"Global Options Group, Inc." Posted November 1, 2006
"The Arrival of the Nickel Billionaires" Posted October 18, 2006
"The Kennedy-Nixon debate revisited" Posted October 4, 2006
"Brilliant Mining Corp." Posted September 17, 2006
"A Matter of Reasonable Doubt" Ken Lay - Enron Posted August 30, 2006