BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Cal-Maine Foods Inc.

August 4, 2008

(CALM – NASDAQ)

 

Fiscal Year June 30

EPS

Price: $41.30

2007

$1.56

 

2008

$6.41

Price Range  $40.75 – 13.88
52 weeks

2009

$7.00 - $7.75

2010E

$8.50+

Dividend 2008:

Fourth quarter 51¢ payable on August 14 for stockholders of record July 30.

Dividend: Payable quarterly, approx. 30% of quarterly income

Long term debt

$86.0M

 

Stockholder equity

$276.0

 

Represented by
23,751,000 common shares outstanding


Business In Perspective

The egg business in the entire world is segregated into individual countries. Each country produces and markets its own eggs. Exporting of eggs is, however, a greater value each year. Cal-Maine (CALM) sold 685 million dozen shell eggs in the year ending June 2007, representing 15.5% of the domestic shell egg consumption. Our total flock approximates 23 million layers and 5 million pullets. CALM is the largest in the United States, and markets its shell eggs in 29 states. The customers are the largest retailers. In fiscal 2008, CALM sold 900 million dozens of domestic shells.

The two distinct brands are Egg-Land’s Best and Farmhouse. Actually CALM owns 25.9% equity interest in Egg-Land’s Best.

CALM has been engaged in industry consolidation. Since 1989, the company completed 13 acquisitions ranging in size from 600,000 layers to 7.5 million layers.

The per capita consumption, which is the total egg production divided by the total population, is relatively stable.

  • Per capita consumption is a measure of total egg production divided by the total population. It does not represent demand (USDA has recently adjusted data to reflect 2000 Census figures.)

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

235.6

249.8

252.8

254.7

255.4

253.8

1997

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

239.7

251.7

255.9

257.1

256.0

249.4 (est.)

  • The five largest egg producing states represent approximately 50% of all U.S. layers.

  • U.S. egg production during May 2008 was 6.43 billion table eggs.

  • Presently, there are 60 egg producing companies with 1 million plus layers and 12 companies with greater than 5 million layers.

  • To date, there are approximately 240 egg producing companies with flocks of 75,000 hens or more. These 255 companies represent about 95% of all the layers in the United States.**

  • In 2007, the average number of egg-type laying hens in the U.S. was 284 million. Flock size for June 1, 2008 was 280 million layers, remaining the same from a year ago. Rate of lay per day on June 1, 2008 averaged 71.7 eggs per 100 layers, up slightly from a year ago.

  • For 2007 exports of processed egg products continued to soar, rising 8 percent for the year to $74.2 million, while table egg export volume increased 42 percent to 78.7 million dozen, with a value of $63.5 million, up 74 percent.

Exports of processed egg products to Japan, the single largest market, showed some decrease, falling 19 percent, to $25.3 million. Japan accounted for 34 percent of total exports in 2007. Helping boost the bottom line, however, was Mexico, thanks in part to USAPEEC’s efforts there to promote the use of U.S. egg products in commercial applications and food service. Shipments to Mexico shot upward by 33 percent, to $9.5 million. Sales to Canada, another leading market, increased 2 percent to $7.9 million.

Hong Kong remained, as it has for years, the top market for U.S. table eggs. Shipments to Hong Kong of 25.4 million dozen were up 20 percent last year, even though value of $19.0 million increased significantly by 40 percent.***

Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, **American Egg Board, ***USAPEEC

Accordingly, the spread between cost and the eggs’ selling price, rather than gross per consumption, decides the profit.

For instance, the rapid growth in revenues is reflected in dramatic profit growth, as illustrated in the table below.

Fiscal 2005

Fiscal 2006

Fiscal 2007

Fiscal 2008

$375.3M

$477.5M

$538M

$916M

These figures are coupled with record high egg prices.

The third quarter of fiscal 2008, as well as the just announced fourth quarter, took advantage of favorable economics in the egg industry. Demand was strong in every facet of the industry. The key issue to emphasize is that eggs still represent a good value to the consumer compared to other foods.

Even though feed costs continue to be very high, the projection for egg production and prices is still growing. In general we live in the age of commodities. Wheat, corn, soybeans, just as copper and gold and oil, are in greater demand for a very simple reason: when the world’s population is up to 7.5 billion people, compared to 2.5 billion in 1945, and when 5 billion people are working the biggest shortage which is building up for the next decade is not oil, which can be substituted and saved, but food. We have a food crisis; we have a world crisis.

We have a food crisis;
we have a world crisis.
 

A Futuristic Picture and Economies of Scale

CALM is an important company in the U.S. economy. It represents 15% of the egg supply in the biggest economy in the world. Management wants to expand the horizon and to reach 30% of the egg business in the near future.

Let us explain why such ambition can happen. In March 2008, the average selling price of eggs was $1.48 (one dozen shell eggs) compared to $0.98 a year before.

This is The Commodity Age. While the supply of commodities—corn and soybeans—has gone up, so did the selling price.

Furthermore, when we break down the operating figures the percentage of net income increased to 20.6% of revenues in March 2008, compared to 9.9% a year before.

 

13 Weeks Ended

39 Weeks Ended

 

March 1, 2008

March 3, 2007

March 1, 2008

March 3, 2007

 

____________________________________________________

Net sales

100.0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

Cost of sales

62.3

74.8

66.7

81.9

 

____________________________________________________

Gross profit

37.7

25.2

33.3

18.1

Selling, general & administrative

6.9

9.6

8.1

10.7

 

____________________________________________________

Operating income

30.8

15.6

25.2

7.4

Other income (expense)

0.8

0.2

0.7

(0.6)

 

____________________________________________________

Income (loss) before taxes

31.6

15.8

25.9

6.8

Income tax expense (benefit)

11.0

5.8

9.0

2.5

 

____________________________________________________

Net income (loss)

20.6 %

9.9 %

16.9 %

4.3 %

 

____________________________________________________

Our earlier analysis of the yearly figures indicates that total net income for the year ended May 31, 2008 amounted to $130 million, which enabled in the same year stockholders’ equity to increase from $155.7 million to $275.7 million.

Accordingly, the current and next two fiscal years may bring in over $250 million net income, which would double stockholders’ equity to $500 million and leave CALM technically without any long term debt.

What it amounts to is that the company could easily borrow $200 million and actually purchase 15-20% of America’s smaller egg producers.

In fiscal 2008, revenues reached, based on the higher margins, $915.9 million. Two years later we would be talking of a $2 billion company with a net income base of $250 million, a remarkable achievement when we go back to the year 2002 or 2003.

The pro forma picture of this hypothetical $2 billion company not only represents a great corporate achievement but creates an all-powerful competitor in one of America’s basic food industries.

Our opinion is that five years from now we may have penetrated the power of the OPEC cartel. We may build electric cars and have solar energy.

However, any intelligent economist will come to the conclusion that the food crisis is going to be greater in the year 2012 than it is in the year 2008.

CALM is now navigating to be in the same league as Coca-Cola, Gillette or Hershey’s. They are not monopolies; they are dominant factors in their industries.

From the point of view of the stock market they will get a premium multiple. Today CALM is selling at $41, about five times its just announced $6.41 per share.

If we add up the future cash flow and project out the income, it is not unreasonable to believe that in five years time, with 30% of the industry, the company will earn $10 per share. Utilizing the institutional 20 multiple for a dominant food company, the target is $200 per share.

This is the 21st century.

Current Events and Expectations 

Fred Adams, Jr., chairman and chief executive officer of Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., stated, “The results for the fourth quarter reflect good demand for eggs and strong egg prices. The overall supply of eggs was slightly lower than the same period last year, which contributed to a more favorable market balance. Feed costs continued to be very high, reflecting the rising costs of corn and soybean meal.”

“For fiscal 2008, our results reflect very good egg prices, record high feed costs, and a solid performance by the Cal-Maine management team. As we look ahead, we see continued strong demand for eggs, a slightly higher, but manageable, egg supply, and further volatility with respect to corn and soybean meal prices. All of our operations are running smoothly, and we are optimistic about Cal-Maine’s business for the years ahead.”

 

Ended
May 31, 2008

Ended
June 2, 2007

Ended
May 31, 2008

Ended
June 2, 2007

Net sales

$235,628

$169,872

$915,939

$598,128

Net income

$ 36,558

$ 18,283

$151,861

$ 36,856

Net income
per common share:
Diluted

$1.54

$0.77

$6.40

$1.55

SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET

(Unaudited)
(in thousands)

ASSETS

May 31,
    2008    

June 2,
    2007    

Cash & short-term investments

$ 94,858

$ 54,532

Receivables

   50,223

   38,180

Inventories

   76,768

   62,208

Other

      2,418

      1,390

Current assets

 224,265

 156,310

Property, plant & equipment (net)

 206,493

 193,590

Other assets

   70,478

   14,668

Total assets

$501,236
________

$364,568
________

LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY

   

Accounts payable & accrued expenses

$ 67,952

$ 45,051

Other current liabilities

   10,358

     5,435

Current maturities of long-term debt

   11,470

   13,442

Deferred income taxes

   12,935

   11,830

Current liabilities

  102,715

   75,758

Deferred income taxes & other liabilities

    37,161

    33,661

Long-term debt, less current maturities

    85,680

    99,410

Shareholders’ equity

  275,680

  155,739

     Total liabilities & shareholders’ equity

$501,236
________

 $364,568
________

A list of the top egg producing companies appears below. The size of the competition indicates that half a dozen acquisitions can accomplish the goal of 30% dominance of CALM in the egg industry.

Company

Location

Number of Layers

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.

Jackson, MS

22,800,000

Rose Acres

Seymore City, IN

22,600,000

Michael Foods Eggs

Minneapolis, MN

14,000,000

Decoster Egg Farms

Turner, ME

10,500,000

Fremont Farms

Malcolm, IA

5,200,000

The Hidden Financial Opportunities

There is a possibility for a major expansion of CALM due to its high cash flow and the better utilization of surplus cash generated by the company.

  1. Management currently distributes one-third of its net income to stockholders on a quarterly basis. For instance, in the last quarter of FY2008 the quarterly earnings were $1.54 on a per share basis, and the Board ordered a 51-cent per share dividend to all 24 million common share stockholders. This is equivalent to a distribution of a surplus $12 million for a single quarter.

  2. If we annualize this figure, the Board will distribute $2 per share in FY2009, an equivalent of $48 million.

  3. Assume that CALM wants to raise $100 million to finance the acquisition of other egg companies towards its aim to acquire an additional 15% of the egg market.

  4. $100 million, if it carries an interest rate of 10%, could be marketed at the $50 conversion price, about 20% over the current stock price of $38.

  5. If, however, we specify that one-half of the cash dividend is allocated as interest to this $100 million dividend-index bond, we could even use a conversion price of $60. After all we would simply allocate the already allocated cash dividend to pay interest on the index bond, and the 10% is simply an alternative if the index dividend is 10% or less.

   Benefits

There are numerous and totally unusual features:

  1. Technically, CALM will pay interest on $100 million, which would already pay out to stockholders, therefore it is like a zero coupon bond.

  2. It is unique way of financing, and it would highlight to all stockholders, as well as to the financial community, that Cal-Maine Foods is a food provider with extraordinary profit potential, and management is willing to apply the techniques of the 21st century for its growth.

The growth of CALM in the last year is impressive.

The potential interest growth in the next two years would be manifold.

 

        Fiscal        

 

2009

2010

2011

 

( $, MIL)

Revenue

1.000

1.110

1250.00

New Income

152

165

175

Stockholder Equity

400

550

700

Borrowing up to $200M, and acquiring another 15% of the egg industry, we can create a $2.0B corporate entity, with about $250M net income.

Within two years after the acquisition, the new company can repay the debt and the following year there can be an annual cash flow (net after expenses) of about $300 million.

As a dominant company, such an entity can command a market capitalization of $3.0B.

Assuming a 20% error in our calculations, the price target for CALM is $10 earnings per share.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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