BERAL, INC. Andrew Racz Director of Research 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C New York, NY 10022 Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944 E-mail: mlikar@aol.com
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August 4, 2008
(CALM – NASDAQ)
Fiscal Year June 30
EPS
Price: $41.30
2007
$1.56
2008
$6.41
Price Range $40.75 – 13.88 52 weeks
2009
$7.00 - $7.75
2010E
$8.50+
Dividend 2008:
Fourth quarter 51¢ payable on August 14 for stockholders of record July 30.
Dividend: Payable quarterly, approx. 30% of quarterly income
Long term debt
$86.0M
Stockholder equity
$276.0
Represented by 23,751,000 common shares outstanding
Business In Perspective
The egg business in the entire world is segregated into individual countries. Each country produces and markets its own eggs. Exporting of eggs is, however, a greater value each year. Cal-Maine (CALM) sold 685 million dozen shell eggs in the year ending June 2007, representing 15.5% of the domestic shell egg consumption. Our total flock approximates 23 million layers and 5 million pullets. CALM is the largest in the United States, and markets its shell eggs in 29 states. The customers are the largest retailers. In fiscal 2008, CALM sold 900 million dozens of domestic shells.
The two distinct brands are Egg-Land’s Best and Farmhouse. Actually CALM owns 25.9% equity interest in Egg-Land’s Best.
CALM has been engaged in industry consolidation. Since 1989, the company completed 13 acquisitions ranging in size from 600,000 layers to 7.5 million layers.
The per capita consumption, which is the total egg production divided by the total population, is relatively stable.
Per capita consumption is a measure of total egg production divided by the total population. It does not represent demand (USDA has recently adjusted data to reflect 2000 Census figures.)
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
235.6
249.8
252.8
254.7
255.4
253.8
2000
2002
2004
2006
239.7
251.7
255.9
257.1
256.0
249.4 (est.)
The five largest egg producing states represent approximately 50% of all U.S. layers.
U.S. egg production during May 2008 was 6.43 billion table eggs.
Presently, there are 60 egg producing companies with 1 million plus layers and 12 companies with greater than 5 million layers.
To date, there are approximately 240 egg producing companies with flocks of 75,000 hens or more. These 255 companies represent about 95% of all the layers in the United States.**
In 2007, the average number of egg-type laying hens in the U.S. was 284 million. Flock size for June 1, 2008 was 280 million layers, remaining the same from a year ago. Rate of lay per day on June 1, 2008 averaged 71.7 eggs per 100 layers, up slightly from a year ago.
For 2007 exports of processed egg products continued to soar, rising 8 percent for the year to $74.2 million, while table egg export volume increased 42 percent to 78.7 million dozen, with a value of $63.5 million, up 74 percent.
Exports of processed egg products to Japan, the single largest market, showed some decrease, falling 19 percent, to $25.3 million. Japan accounted for 34 percent of total exports in 2007. Helping boost the bottom line, however, was Mexico, thanks in part to USAPEEC’s efforts there to promote the use of U.S. egg products in commercial applications and food service. Shipments to Mexico shot upward by 33 percent, to $9.5 million. Sales to Canada, another leading market, increased 2 percent to $7.9 million.
Hong Kong remained, as it has for years, the top market for U.S. table eggs. Shipments to Hong Kong of 25.4 million dozen were up 20 percent last year, even though value of $19.0 million increased significantly by 40 percent.***
Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, **American Egg Board, ***USAPEEC
Accordingly, the spread between cost and the eggs’ selling price, rather than gross per consumption, decides the profit.
For instance, the rapid growth in revenues is reflected in dramatic profit growth, as illustrated in the table below.
Fiscal 2005
Fiscal 2006
Fiscal 2007
Fiscal 2008
$375.3M
$477.5M
$538M
$916M
These figures are coupled with record high egg prices.
The third quarter of fiscal 2008, as well as the just announced fourth quarter, took advantage of favorable economics in the egg industry. Demand was strong in every facet of the industry. The key issue to emphasize is that eggs still represent a good value to the consumer compared to other foods.
Even though feed costs continue to be very high, the projection for egg production and prices is still growing. In general we live in the age of commodities. Wheat, corn, soybeans, just as copper and gold and oil, are in greater demand for a very simple reason: when the world’s population is up to 7.5 billion people, compared to 2.5 billion in 1945, and when 5 billion people are working the biggest shortage which is building up for the next decade is not oil, which can be substituted and saved, but food. We have a food crisis; we have a world crisis.
We have a food crisis; we have a world crisis.
A Futuristic Picture and Economies of Scale
CALM is an important company in the U.S. economy. It represents 15% of the egg supply in the biggest economy in the world. Management wants to expand the horizon and to reach 30% of the egg business in the near future.
Let us explain why such ambition can happen. In March 2008, the average selling price of eggs was $1.48 (one dozen shell eggs) compared to $0.98 a year before.
This is The Commodity Age. While the supply of commodities—corn and soybeans—has gone up, so did the selling price.
Furthermore, when we break down the operating figures the percentage of net income increased to 20.6% of revenues in March 2008, compared to 9.9% a year before.
13 Weeks Ended
39 Weeks Ended
March 1, 2008
March 3, 2007
____________________________________________________
Net sales
100.0 %
Cost of sales
62.3
74.8
66.7
81.9
Gross profit
37.7
25.2
33.3
18.1
Selling, general & administrative
6.9
9.6
8.1
10.7
Operating income
30.8
15.6
7.4
Other income (expense)
0.8
0.2
0.7
(0.6)
Income (loss) before taxes
31.6
15.8
25.9
6.8
Income tax expense (benefit)
11.0
5.8
9.0
2.5
Net income (loss)
20.6 %
9.9 %
16.9 %
4.3 %
Our earlier analysis of the yearly figures indicates that total net income for the year ended May 31, 2008 amounted to $130 million, which enabled in the same year stockholders’ equity to increase from $155.7 million to $275.7 million.
Accordingly, the current and next two fiscal years may bring in over $250 million net income, which would double stockholders’ equity to $500 million and leave CALM technically without any long term debt.
What it amounts to is that the company could easily borrow $200 million and actually purchase 15-20% of America’s smaller egg producers.
In fiscal 2008, revenues reached, based on the higher margins, $915.9 million. Two years later we would be talking of a $2 billion company with a net income base of $250 million, a remarkable achievement when we go back to the year 2002 or 2003.
The pro forma picture of this hypothetical $2 billion company not only represents a great corporate achievement but creates an all-powerful competitor in one of America’s basic food industries.
Our opinion is that five years from now we may have penetrated the power of the OPEC cartel. We may build electric cars and have solar energy.
However, any intelligent economist will come to the conclusion that the food crisis is going to be greater in the year 2012 than it is in the year 2008.
CALM is now navigating to be in the same league as Coca-Cola, Gillette or Hershey’s. They are not monopolies; they are dominant factors in their industries.
From the point of view of the stock market they will get a premium multiple. Today CALM is selling at $41, about five times its just announced $6.41 per share.
If we add up the future cash flow and project out the income, it is not unreasonable to believe that in five years time, with 30% of the industry, the company will earn $10 per share. Utilizing the institutional 20 multiple for a dominant food company, the target is $200 per share.
This is the 21st century.
Current Events and Expectations
Fred Adams, Jr., chairman and chief executive officer of Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., stated, “The results for the fourth quarter reflect good demand for eggs and strong egg prices. The overall supply of eggs was slightly lower than the same period last year, which contributed to a more favorable market balance. Feed costs continued to be very high, reflecting the rising costs of corn and soybean meal.”
“For fiscal 2008, our results reflect very good egg prices, record high feed costs, and a solid performance by the Cal-Maine management team. As we look ahead, we see continued strong demand for eggs, a slightly higher, but manageable, egg supply, and further volatility with respect to corn and soybean meal prices. All of our operations are running smoothly, and we are optimistic about Cal-Maine’s business for the years ahead.”
Ended May 31, 2008
Ended June 2, 2007
$235,628
$169,872
$915,939
$598,128
Net income
$ 36,558
$ 18,283
$151,861
$ 36,856
Net income per common share: Diluted
$1.54
$0.77
$6.40
$1.55
SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET
(Unaudited) (in thousands)
ASSETS
May 31, 2008
June 2, 2007
Cash & short-term investments
$ 94,858
$ 54,532
Receivables
50,223
38,180
Inventories
76,768
62,208
Other
2,418
1,390
Current assets
224,265
156,310
Property, plant & equipment (net)
206,493
193,590
Other assets
70,478
14,668
Total assets
$501,236 ________
$364,568 ________
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY
Accounts payable & accrued expenses
$ 67,952
$ 45,051
Other current liabilities
10,358
5,435
Current maturities of long-term debt
11,470
13,442
Deferred income taxes
12,935
11,830
Current liabilities
102,715
75,758
Deferred income taxes & other liabilities
37,161
33,661
Long-term debt, less current maturities
85,680
99,410
Shareholders’ equity
275,680
155,739
Total liabilities & shareholders’ equity
A list of the top egg producing companies appears below. The size of the competition indicates that half a dozen acquisitions can accomplish the goal of 30% dominance of CALM in the egg industry.
Company
Location
Number of Layers
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Jackson, MS
22,800,000
Rose Acres
Seymore City, IN
22,600,000
Michael Foods Eggs
Minneapolis, MN
14,000,000
Decoster Egg Farms
Turner, ME
10,500,000
Fremont Farms
Malcolm, IA
5,200,000
The Hidden Financial Opportunities
There is a possibility for a major expansion of CALM due to its high cash flow and the better utilization of surplus cash generated by the company.
Management currently distributes one-third of its net income to stockholders on a quarterly basis. For instance, in the last quarter of FY2008 the quarterly earnings were $1.54 on a per share basis, and the Board ordered a 51-cent per share dividend to all 24 million common share stockholders. This is equivalent to a distribution of a surplus $12 million for a single quarter.
If we annualize this figure, the Board will distribute $2 per share in FY2009, an equivalent of $48 million.
Assume that CALM wants to raise $100 million to finance the acquisition of other egg companies towards its aim to acquire an additional 15% of the egg market.
$100 million, if it carries an interest rate of 10%, could be marketed at the $50 conversion price, about 20% over the current stock price of $38.
If, however, we specify that one-half of the cash dividend is allocated as interest to this $100 million dividend-index bond, we could even use a conversion price of $60. After all we would simply allocate the already allocated cash dividend to pay interest on the index bond, and the 10% is simply an alternative if the index dividend is 10% or less.
Benefits
There are numerous and totally unusual features:
Technically, CALM will pay interest on $100 million, which would already pay out to stockholders, therefore it is like a zero coupon bond.
It is unique way of financing, and it would highlight to all stockholders, as well as to the financial community, that Cal-Maine Foods is a food provider with extraordinary profit potential, and management is willing to apply the techniques of the 21st century for its growth.
The growth of CALM in the last year is impressive.
The potential interest growth in the next two years would be manifold.
Fiscal
2010
2011
( $, MIL)
Revenue
1.000
1.110
1250.00
New Income
152
165
175
Stockholder Equity
400
550
700
Borrowing up to $200M, and acquiring another 15% of the egg industry, we can create a $2.0B corporate entity, with about $250M net income.
Within two years after the acquisition, the new company can repay the debt and the following year there can be an annual cash flow (net after expenses) of about $300 million.
As a dominant company, such an entity can command a market capitalization of $3.0B.
Assuming a 20% error in our calculations, the price target for CALM is $10 earnings per share.
Disclaimer
Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.
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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022 Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com
Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.