BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Gold and the Chinese Millennium

October 20, 2008

During this 2000 years of history, the Chinese never had money.

After registering its first 1.0 trillion savings in the year 2001, a long list of troubled foreign investment followed.

Turning to the study of world monetary history – they began to put their hard earned money to GOLD. In particular Gold-Coins.

In Memory of the late

James Blanchard (Blanchard & Co., Inc.)

Father of

The Ultimate Liquid Asset

Gold Indexed Bonds

In a private conversation in the summer of 1982, President Nixon, after studying my theories, said,

"I would have used the power of American gold reserves to confront Brezhnev and win a strong point about Russia’s financial weakness."

In 1982 Nixon wasn’t President, and the Cold War lasted almost another decade.

The Birth of an Idea

I first heard the value of gold when I was seven years old, the year was 1945, the beginning of hyper-inflation in Hungary. We had only one of the six rooms heated, so after dinner my father and three of his cousins were pushing around the table, Swiss franc, British pound and Napoleon gold. Usually they decided to convert everything into gold and put it in the vault.

When it comes to paying the village people who brought us food, my father paid with small Napoleon gold. If we didn’t have gold, we wouldn’t have food. That is when I first learned that In Gold We Trust.

I lived in South Africa in 1961 and visited the country many times. I even became friendly with the late Edmond Safra and Dr. Dietrich, the former state president of South Africa. I learned that investing in gold-related assets, meaning mining shares in the 1970’s, I made money and in fact I generated a lot of commissions, when my fellow brokers could hardly meet the bill at the dinner table. In 1975 when Wall Street was starving, we bought a house at the lake in South Salem, New York, coming from the commissions I generated in selling gold shares to my clients. The summers at the lake were magnificent, and I reaffirmed my belief that In Gold We Trust.

In 1981 I was fortunate to get acquainted with President Nixon. When I got to know him a bit better I acquainted him with a theory of how to beat the Russians with American gold reserves. Actually I wrote an article, Russia in Bankruptcy, in which I stated that capitalism may not be able to pay for the Cold War, but communism simply cannot afford it. The Cold War was getting more and more expensive for the Soviet Union.

The story that I was telling to President Nixon was very simple. America has gold reserves. Float gold-backed bonds for about $1 trillion. This money would be segregated like Social Security money. Then, American agents would go all over the world and visit in London, Barclays the Westminster Bank and ask the bank how much is the floating credit of the Soviet Union. If the answer was $100 million, rolled over every month, the American agent would simply hand over a bill for $100 million and extinguish the Russian credit. Now, if the Russians want to get money to roll over the $100 M credit line at the end of the month, they have to come to the United States, their new creditor.

If it's done quietly, with $800 billion to be spent, the United States could simply buy up the world wide Russian credit and when it comes to the first of the month, Russia would be in a dilemma. We could simply say, that they should go and try to get credit from their friends. The US Treasury wants cash.

The idea appealed to the President. He went through various angles and subsequently stated that if he were President now, he would use this. After all, what is easier, to fight Brezhnev with a checkbook, or missiles?

It was then in 1980 that gold-backed bonds became a fixation in my mind. In Gold people Trust. If a nation instead of printing money would float in London or in New York a $100 million gold-backed bonds, it would have to pay only perhaps two or three percent interest rate instead of the prevailing rate, which certainly in the early 80's was in the vicinity of 7 to 10 percent.

GOLD AND THE CHINESE MILLENNIUM 

About ten years in the 21st Century the Chinese Prime Minister began to have doubts about his country. His headaches and pressure were about money. There was a need to apply for revolutionary ideas.

Let’s face it, 50 years before nobody asked,

“Where is the Chinese Prime Minister?”

Then in 1972 Nixon visited China and for the first time even the communist Chinese leaders admitted that they were painfully amateur in handling Chinese money, 25 years after the revolution.

Zhou Enlai plainly admitted to himself that China was living in the middle age.

During the Korean War, an American Air Force General Curtis LeMay became famous with his remark “We will bomb them back to the stone ages.” Zhou Enlai, as he was drinking tea alone in his study, admitted to himself, China is not being bombed but certainly living in its self-created stone age.

In 1972 five sessions with Nixon, Zhou Enlai began to convince himself that China better think about money. Money has to be made; otherwise, there will be another revolution. Whenever Nixon brought up the issue of Taiwan, Zhou Enlai always interrupted him. Mr. President, you are here because we want to learn from you how to make money. Why don’t you buy Taiwan from us?  It’s available.

Nixon didn’t have that kind of money. Secondly, buying Taiwan he would have to recognize Red China and lose his political leverage for the next election.

Years later the Chinese gross national product has grown 8 percent per annum. It has accumulated 1.5 trillion dollars in reserve. It was a nuclear power. It has produced 10 percent of the world’s total gold production; however, China was losing money every investment they made overseas.

The Chinese Prime Minister had the same problems as any of his colleagues along the G-20 Nations. To begin this China needed the reserves as probably a billion people living in China still lived in the middle ages. Undoubtedly the Chinese press cut the billion into 500, but to build a country of eventually 1.5 billion people so that Shanghai can be compared to Paris and have the agriculture to be self sufficient and they have to cope with the oil energy needs, which was costing a fortune, China technically didn’t have surplus money. The money they had was designated for profitable foreign investments and the record was a disaster.

The Chinese Prime Minister didn’t like publicity, but when the three billion investment in Blackstone at $31 declined to $12, he got more email than Mr. Phelps after swimming through 8 gold medals at the Olympics. The dollar was losing its value on a daily basis. Other foreign investments were all disasters. They bought real estate in Germany, a flop. The Chinese government and the state had to bail them out. Thank God, they did not buy Miami.

Furthermore, the Politburo instructed the development of goldmines and that move turned out to be successful too. By 2008 the Chinese produced 8 percent of the world’s newly mined gold and of course they added every month from their trade surplus. At least this was the only investment the Chinese were happy with.

The Prime Minister was interested whether Nixon was guiding them properly and they found in the notes taken in 1972 by Zhou Enlai that Nixon told him that America will liberate gold to be bought by their own citizens very soon. And that will make gold a rapidly growing monetary asset.

Zhou Enlai didn’t understand much about deregulation, but he noted that Nixon tipped him off to buy gold, which was only $35 at the time.

The Chinese of course always had the greatest respect for the American President and set up a study group about gold as a monetary metal. Can the West cheat them? Can it collapse or skyrocket? Who else respects gold and so on?

At the next Politburo meeting, it was evaluated that the total value of the gold China had amounted to 1 trillion dollars. It could go up 300 billion a year and by the year 2015 there is a chance that the value of the Chinese gold reserves above the ground would be $7.0 trillion dollars; perhaps more.

At that time one of the younger members of the Cabinet, who just came back from Harvard, created a bombshell. He stated that in New York he met a Hungarian-born investment banker who has been mesmerized by gold from the age of 7. He discovered what is called the Gold Indexed Bonds.

The young Chinese even had a copy of one of his articles and asked permission to explain how China could leverage on its current gold holdings.

He said we create $1,000 unit. Attach to a $1000 bond 100 options to buy gold 20 percent above the market. We can sell the unit because the world knows that we have more dollars that we can deliver. And of course we have the gold. Somebody exercise the warrants, we can deliver gold. I said only we can do it. We – only China!

At that time the Cabinet was getting more interested. The prime minister asked the young man, “Tell me one thing. Only we can do this?” Yes, only we can. Nobody in the world has surplus dollars and surplus gold. The Prime Minister said, well, frankly, this is what our old great friend Mr. Stalin was dreaming.

The conversation went further and the Cabinet asked what do we use this vehicle? First of all, they all agreed that they can leverage what they have. If they have a trillion dollars, they can issue bonds and warrants, gold warrants for 10 trillion. Now some leverage of 10 to 1 for which there isn’t much risk on the Chinese part is definitely good business. And what they liked about it is that they are not going to buy Blackstone. They don’t go out and have to buy Morgan Stanley. They create their currency.

With this in mind, a study group was assigned as to how to structure these units and how to use them. The conclusion was that China can use hundreds of billions of dollars raised in this manner to buy companies overseas. The actual entry point is low and the volume would be at the discretion of the Chinese.

Several years later, the combined gold holdings and the 10 percent annual world gold production would be formidable. The coins would be simply added to both of China’s gold value and considered as liquid assets.

Here is the deal:

1) Gold is $900 per ounce.

2) China floats a $1,000 6 percent bond with warrants. 100 warrants at $1050 (a unit).

3) The underwriting proceeds is $1000.

4) Chinese then invest $900 to buy Gold coins, leaving $100 for reserves.

5) $113 – 1,000,000 unit will purchase 1 million gold coins at $900 per ounce level, substantially less if the price rises.

6) 1 million dollars buys 1000 American Eagle gold coins.

7) Let’s put it into perspective

  • Total World Gold coin consumption        105 tons
  • Total production                                  2506 tons

1 billion unit can finance

1 billion coins

According to the World’s Gold Council, 16 percent of the gold stored above ground is held for investment purposes.

The total annual world amount is about 104 tons which at the rate of 32,000 ounce per ton is 3½ billion ounces. If China can finance by purchase of 10 to 20 million coins, it would cause a major imbalance in the world’s gold market.

The imbalance can increase gold price: 20 – 50 percent

Accordingly, China can control the world’s Gold price.

Gold ushered in the

Chinese Millennium

TRAFFICKING IN GOLD COINS

The American Eagle: The Best Way to Invest in Gold

The American Eagle coin is an excellent way to own and hold gold. American Eagles are the best-selling gold bullion coins in America. They are traded worldwide on a daily basis as a major component of the international gold business, so they always have a ready market.

Minted from gold mined in the United States, American Eagles use the 22 karat standard for added durability. This means that they contain their stated amount of pure gold, plus small amounts of alloy to make them the most durable gold bullion coins in the world. (The additional alloy creates a harder coin that is more resistant to scratching and marring, which can literally erode a bullion coin’s resale value.)

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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