BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Claude Resources, Inc.

May 28, 2009

(CGR - AMEX)

Price:

80¢

52-week price range:

$1.20 - 12¢

Shares outstanding:

97,530,000

Total cash:

$7.0M

Book value:

76¢

Interview
with Neil McMillan
President
Claude Resources, Inc.

ANDREW RACZ [Q]:  Could you describe the fundamental picture of Claude?

NEIL MCMILLAN [A]:  Our most important corporate feature is our asset base. The asset base in our company can produce for us significant cash flow and create financial stability. So the basic business that we're in has been improving, and I think that's being recognized. Much more importantly, though, to the investing public is an exploration project that we have in Red Lake, Ontario in Canada. It's a very significant project. Red Lake is the home of Goldcorp, which took an old producing mine there in the early 1990s and made a tremendous discovery near the existing mining facility, and turned a $45 million market cap company into a $4 billion market cap company, essentially off that single discovery. They turned it into the highest grade gold mine in the world, mining at 2.3 ounces per ton. The Red Lake project that we have is considered by many to be remarkably similar or some even say identical geologically. And the potential for us is to duplicate to some degree what Goldcorp accomplished up the road at their project, which is now called the Red Lake Mine.

Q:  Where are you in terms of drilling target?

A:  We started drilling deep high-grade target in late December, and started to release the results of that drilling in the first quarter. And the drill results were outstanding. The first drill hole was nearly 4 ounces per ton over two and a half feet. The fourth hole was three-quarters of an ounce per ton over twenty-six feet. The other two holes were also significant grade holes, over an ounce over a really good width. So probably more than anything, the drill results are coming out of our project in Red Lake and it's called Madsen. Those results are what propelled the stock to such significant performance of its lows, from 25¢ to 80¢. Interestingly enough, by conventional measuring, the stock is still relatively cheap compared to our peer group.

Q: Let me go back for a minute, looking at a variety of gold mining companies. You have major companies like Barrick or Goldcorp. They are producing, of course, large amounts of gold. Barrick produced 8 million ounces in 2008. You have some of the major South African mines like Anglo Ashanti with current yearly production of 4 million ounces. At the same time, in the various literature a great deal of attention is paid to gold exploration companies that are at various stages of development but certainly don't produce any gold except promises. Now, Claude is in between. You said that for seventeen years you have actually been producing gold, and you went into a major mining project, Madsen in Red Lake, to expand the company. Now, this would not have been possible if the existing gold production didn't create a stable capital structure which enabled you to raise money to go into Red Lake. So your company is in a way a unique niche both among the gold-stock family and also in the international stock market. Is that correct?

A:  That's very correct. We have just over a hundred million shares outstanding. Most pure exploration companies, the only way they can generate any revenue to further their exploration is to continue to issue more shares. And in our case, we have the potential to fund our exploration from our existing mining operation. So that's the first real advantage. And given where gold prices are today, even though we have a big exploration budget at Madsen, the CB Mine, our producing gold mine, can fund a big portion of that particular exploration.

Q:  The existing gold mine, which if I'm correct used to have 50,000 ounces a year has now gotten bigger, 20% more. How much cash flow does it generate?

A:  We expect to generate nearly 20-25 cents a share in 2009. That's an analyst estimate. So with our stock trading at 80 cents U.S., we're trading at about four times cash flow. Some of that cash flow, which will go back to be reinvested in the CB mine, but much of it is available excess cash flow to be invested in Madsen.

Q:  So in other words, let's say division number one generates over $20 million cash flow.

A:  Correct.

Q:  And a certain amount, of course, is reinvested and expanding the current operation. If the price of gold goes to $1,100 or $1,200, how much would be the cash flow from the existing mines?

A:  Well, if we produce 50,000 ounces this year and more than that going forward, you can assume for every $100 change in the price of gold, our cash flow increases by $5 million net onto our bottom line.

Q:  So in other words, instead of $20, it can become $25, $30, $35 million cash flow and the capital expenditures let's say maximum $10, probably much less. You have a surplus cash flow of about $20 million, correct?

A:  That's correct. The potential is certainly there.

Q:  Now, this would put you way ahead of most exploration companies in Canada because none of them has surplus cash flow of $20 million.

A:  Right. Under those circumstances, even running a big exploration program at Madsen of $10-15-20 million a year, we wouldn't have to sell shares to do that.

Q:  So what I call the speculative but reasonably rich potential in Red Lake, Madsen, could absorb almost a surplus cash flow of $20 million, but at the same time could build up assets and values several times as big.

A:  Very much so. The interesting thing is already at the Madsen project, it's 10,000 acres, we already have a mill there, we have a shaft there, we have full permitted facilities. We know how to mine, so should the drilling continue to be successful at Madsen, it's not very difficult and certainly not very expensive for us to put Madsen in production as well as CB. Our expectation is that Madsen has the potential to be much larger than our existing producing mine. And again, with the ability to put it in production and manage it ourselves with much less cost than most companies would ever face.

Q:  What you are saying is that Madsen could generate 50,000 ounces of gold production three years from now.

A: It would be at least double that.

Q:  That means 100,000.

A:  Personally I wouldn't be in favor of putting in a production at only 50,000 ounces. We're not very far away in terms of drilling success from being able to produce 100,000 ounces a year.

Q: Can it happen in two years' time?

A:  I would say three years is more reasonable.

Q:  So in three years' time, with a gold price of $1,000, from current cash flow you have gold division number two, and Madsen producing twice as much gold as the division number one, and have a total combined cash flow could be close to $75 million.

Table 6

Price: 80¢ U.S.

Yearly gold production

50,000 ounces

Surplus cash flow ($1,000 gold)

$20M

$1,100 gold/ounce

$25M cash flow

$1,200 gold/ounce

$30M cash flow

Capital expenditures for Madsen

$10M

After $1,000 gold/per ounce, CGR operates with a surplus cash flow.

A:  That's quite easy to see how that can happen.

Q:  So $75 million with a market cap of $80 million. So the company is selling at one times projected cash flow, a projection which is based on reasonable geological results, at the current price of $1,000 for gold.

A:  That's entirely plausible.

Table 7

 

CB

Madsen

Production:

50,000
50,000

      -             2009
100,000      2012

Gold price: $1,000/ounce

 

 

Cash flow

$20M

$50M = $75M

Note: Every $100 increase in the price of gold = $150M
increase in cash flow ----> $90M

Q:  If, however, the price of gold goes to $1,200, then you have 150,000 production, 200 more, which is another $30 million total surplus cash flow which in three years can buy back all the shares. So the capitalization now consists of three parts: The current gold production, the Madsen projected gold production in three years' time, and the net surplus cash generated in 40-45 months from now, which could amount to a surplus of about $35 million. And when you add all these numbers up, you can really create an LBO model which says that you could buy back the whole company private and buy 80% of the shares and you have an astronomical rise in the price of the stock. This is an LBO calculation.

A:  It's an entirely plausible scenario. We're one of the few companies that has all of the ingredients to grow off our existing asset base by 300 or 400 percent in terms of our production, and by much more than that in terms of our cash flow. And all of the ingredients are there to do it without issuing a lot of additional stock.

Table 8

The LBO Potential of Claude (CGR)

Current price

80¢

Shares outstanding

100,000,000

Market cap

$100M

Cash flow 2012

$90M

Cash flow & debt of $100M =

$20M

Rating 25% of equity, the $75M market value can be retired with $110M debt.

Such debt is retired in 2013/2014.

Value of equity: $4.00-10.00 per share.

Q:  What else does the company have?

A:  We have an oil and gas division. We sold about 60 percent of that at Christmas time and the other 40 percent of it we have a corporate mandate to sell when it's appropriate, maybe as early as this fall. So we're streamlining the company so we focus on only two assets, our producing gold mine in Canada, the CB, and then particularly on expanding the Madsen exploration project. We have some debt. We have an $18 million debenture that matures in 2013, but we're in the process of redeeming $10 million of that right now. And it's my hope that we can have no net debt in the company by the end of this year.

Q:  That's totally with internal assets and cash flow. In other words, you can redeem this paper internally.

A:  We can do 60 percent of it now and if we sell the balance of the oil and gas assets this fall, we would expect to be able to redeem the balance of that.

Q:  In that time you have how much equity, when all this is done?

A:  A book value in the company is $87 million C. Working capital is $15 million.

Q:  So basically you redeem the debt if the equity goes up, with cash flow going to $200 million, it's a dollar per share. That again puts--I hope you don't mind this expression--a totally unknown company, Claude Resources, on the map based on readily calculable figures, equity, capital position, potential gold production. It's a unique company in the total picture of gold mining companies in North America.

A:  There are very few others that are in the position we're in. That's correct.

Q:  If we have, as I personally predict, a reevaluation of gold in the international monetary system, the price of gold can go to $1,500.

A:  That's my view as well.

Q:  So for a $1,500 price of gold, the gold is totally reevaluated in our system. Just to mention one example which nobody would have ever thought even two or three years ago, the Chinese doubled their gold position from 500 tons to 1,000 tons. By the way, the IMF has 3,500, France has 3,000, Italy 2,000, and the United States has 8,400. So if the Chinese already doubled their production to $400 billion, they are willing to do a barter business among themselves. That's very bullish for gold, no?

Table 9

Central Bank's Gold Holdings
(tons)

USA

8,400

IMF

3,500

France

3,000

Italy

2,000

A:  That's correct.

Q:  You remove the dollar and substitute bartering, and the ultimate barter is gold. This I can tell you from personal experience, because after the war we had nothing in Hungary but barter, but the ultimate barter was the little Napoleon gold. Everybody who had Napoleon gold was rich. And if the Brazilians and the Chinese start bartering, it will spread to other countries and will expand in size, no?

A:  Correct.

Q:  So we will have a gold-related financial picture growing every month.

A:  And the implications for companies like ours are profound.

Q:  For instance? Can you elaborate?

A:  Well, the leverage in our business is amazing and in a company like ours, people need to be aware that we produced positive cash flow in our company when the price of gold was under $300 an ounce. We have that capacity to produce and to stay in business and to be fiscally prudent. When the price of gold increases like it is now, that history serves us well. The earnings and cash flow leverage in our company is substantial. The other thing that makes it very appealing for people who have an interest in gold is what we refer to as the option value of gold in the ground. So we currently have 1.4 million ounces of gold identified in the ground at our CB mine and at Madsen. People are prepared typically to pay up to $300 or $400 per ounce for that gold in the ground. Our gold is currently trading at $75 an ounce in the ground, and we expect that to continue to increase that value and our market capitalization to the point where it trades at conventional levels, $150 or $200 per ounce. But very much more importantly, we can add dramatically to the amount of gold that we find and have in the ground. So when people buy, they want to participate in gold for security reasons, they can buy physical bullion, they can buy an ETF, they can go buy gold stocks like ours, and in effect own a portion of that unmined gold. In our case, it's a comfort to them to know that we can mine that gold profitably and have been doing it for years, and that we're finding a lot more gold. So an investment in our company provides fabulous leverage to investors, firstly on cash flow, growing cash flow, and then in particular on increasing ounces in the ground in inventory that we have, and then the value of those ounces increasing as the price of gold goes up. I remember prior to the Briex scandal in 1996, companies that had far, far fewer assets than we had weren't mining, had no intention of mining, I remember them trading at $25 and $30 U.S. a share. And I look at our company today and say we have so much more in terms of asset value and capacity than those companies ever had back then, and I firmly believe that when this market develops into a similar situation to the market in the early 1990s, you can expect companies like ours to see dramatic increases in the price of their shares.

A:  Correct.

Q:  So what do you have in mind for your company? We've established it's a sound investment. What do you have in mind for the future?

A:  We're going to continue two things. We're going to focus on continuing to expand our production and cash flow at our CB mine. We have lots of potential to do that, to make it bigger and to have it generate much higher operating margins, and we're well along the way to do that. That's a principal focus. As well we have very specific goals for adding ounces in the ground in our Madsen exploration project. We just announced this morning that we're adding a second drill to our drill program there to target this high-grade discovery that we have. And we will discuss by the first of July adding a third rig in the second half of the year. So we intend to focus on improving production and cash flow and on expanding and accelerating the exploration program at Madsen. We've been approached on many occasions by people who want to partner with us and own an interest or earn an interest, particularly in our Madsen project, and at this point we're quite capable to developing that asset ourselves and intend to proceed on that basis.

Q  You have in many respects achieved everything to take a small company with small production into a league where you should be taken a lot more seriously. I have a feeling that you would like to have a different company three or four years from now. What would that company look like?

A:  If things went really well, our production would be more than triple what it is currently and our ounces in the ground would be up dramatically, more than 300 or 400 percent. Our asset value would have increased by substantially more than 300 or 400 percent, and our share price would have gone up by multiples. And it will still be the same company with the same board of directors and the same management team. The only thing in my view that can derail that probability would be for someone to come and buy us out at a price that even our shareholders couldn't resist. And I suppose that's a possibility at any given time, and I wouldn't speculate on what the probability of that happening is. But we have the asset base and the depth to build this company into a mid-tier producing gold company in the North American market off of our existing asset base and with our existing people, and other resources.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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"1848 and Beyond"
Posted August 4, 2005

 

 

Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

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