BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Ghengis Kahn Returns

September 27, 2007

"We were born in the 21st century. A thousand years of historical tragedies separated us, but in the 21st century, the Mongolian arm and the Hungarian hand meet across the oceans. Accordingly, I am here to discuss with the Parliament and the government of Hungary the feasibility and the desirability to offer every Hungarian citizen a dual Mongolian citizenship. Correspondingly, I speak for all Mongolians to ask for Hungarian reciprocity."

The president of Mongolia concluded a three-day cabinet meeting. The subject matter was the disposition or rather the proper usage of Mongolia's growing foreign exchange reserves. This was the year, 2015, and reluctantly Genghis Khan learned that the constitution provides several days for parliament to approve the various suggestions. Sometimes he wondered if it was easier a thousand years ago. Everybody including him was on horseback, there was no air conditioning, but every night when he went home he had the choice of several homes and several wives.

Mongolia, like any other country, had a free press. It had Internet news. Everything he did was on CNN. So more than one wife would have created an image which he tried to bury. It is true it was all right for a thousand years, but it's now the 21st century, and the 21st century made Mongolia rich. We are in the 21st century. We always said that we are a small country. We are a developing country, but we are part of the 21st century and we have to behave as any other nation. In 1995, he had a different speech. We are a small country, we are a poor country, but we are in Eastern Asia and we have to behave as Eastern Asians do.

Everything changed with that fellow Friedland who brought in Ivanhoe Resources. Genghis Khan never forgot how tough bargainers they were, but fortunately they brought in Rio Tinto and British Conservative politician, Michael Howard. Things got much smoother and eventually the production of copper and gold began. Actually, he was quite happy with the developments in 2007. That was the year of the diplomatic breakthrough. The boys in Ivanhoe produced over a billion dollars in revenues the first year when gold was $1,000 and copper was at $7. At that time he calculated that he could still have about $500 million in surplus cash as he couldn't invest more than $500 million a year to build the infrastructure. Actually, there were no debts, credits or debt concessions because the Mongolians didn't pay any taxes.

However, things got different in 2012-2013 when the mismanagement of the U.S. dollar created a $1,500 gold and almost $10 copper. This brought in a $5 billion revenue, of which in practical terms $4 billion was for surplus. Thus, in two and a half years he had something like $10 billion new revenues plus the interest on the rest.

Genghis Khan wasn't exactly an economist or a international monetary expert, but he understood, just like the currency traders in London and Switzerland and Shanghai and Hong Kong, that the $4 billion paper income in U.S. dollars was rapidly declining in value and losing its buying power. He couldn't understand that all these Harvard-educated or Cambridge-educated boys couldn't stabilize their currency, and why was it necessary to calculate the best possible investments? Having struggled for a thousand years with Mongolia, he would have been perfectly happy to put the money in U.S. Treasury Bills, provide tax-free income for all, encourage Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe and all the other companies to find more copper, gold, uranium and other metals, pay him more, let those boys make money, too, and devote his personal time to the study of history and build monuments to Mongolia's achievements.

However, he was head of Mongolia so he had to do what he had to do as head of the country, and every morning he got up about five o'clock and watched the currency markets, carefully monitored the investments the country was making, and tried to improve the situation and defend the value of Mongolia's reserves.

By the year 2015 and 2015, Mongolia had something like $4 billion in treasury bills. The monetary markets were not very good to him, but he even overwrote his own cabinet members and kept everything together in short-term treasuries, telling the boys that he was looking for alternative investments. He occasionally gave speeches or interviews to CNN, and always emphasized that Mongolia was very happy with the commodity developments and the country was taking advantage of its monetary reserves. He didn't want to be like some of the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries who get involved with nations that upset the apple cart and create revolts with one country against the other.

Since he read more than history, Genghis Khan said what the late German chancellor Willy Brandt said in 1970: "We want to be good neighbors."

His early morning work of seeking investment opportunities eventually led him to the decision that he could make good investments, big investments, and put Mongolia's money and prestige to the highest level of civilization.

First, he invested $5 billion in MGM. After all, MGM is not only the largest casino hotel in Las Vegas but they are expanding in China. He negotiated the right to one-third of all Chinese property and thereby he not only assured equity growth for his country, but a continuous stream of income from various operations of MGM.

The next thing he did which suited his view of Mongolia in the world was to tender for 20 percent of General Motors. He then assured a very big market for GM in China as well as Russia, and Mongolia became the ultimate ruler of the most prestigious car company in the world. He believed that he and the people he knew could influence General Motors from a historical position to a modern automobile leader.

The double investment put Genghis Khan into an enviable position. Dubai liked him, Mr. Kerkorian liked him, the American people liked him, and since he was running a model state with mining relationships with American and Canadian companies, meticulously keeping his role and division of various roles in the picture, he became an all-over model neighbor. He was not only a good neighbor, he was a model neighbor. Meanwhile, the money was coming in.

Just like the Arab rules who visited the Western capitals time and time again, which in a way represented certain threats to peace, Genghis Khan was trying to be a model neighbor. He invested his money wisely, he kept agreements, and he visited the Western world always making sure that political suggestions, political events, did not enter his speeches or his remarks. He drove through Piccadilly in a General Motors car, and operated his various currency and brokerage accounts through Swiss as well as British accounts. American accounts he didn't like because America always resorted to expropriations and there were too many lawsuits. He was a peaceful trader who bought and sold short various currencies based on information he received from individual advisors or traders.

Genghis Khan was a student of history. He came to the conclusion that the deal with the Ivanhoe Group was good for him so long as it was very peaceful and long term. After all, he calculated that even the worst version of the deal would provide a huge income to Mongolia. He also studied the commodity prices, and frankly he realized the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States and the Chancellor of Great Britain, who later became prime minister, didn't understand anything.

He looked north and saw the Russians. He looked south and saw the Chinese. And he came to the conclusion that when 7 billion people work, commodity prices go up. So the way he considered the Ivanhoe deal was as a base for which he would get a steadily growing income because of the commodity prices. Meanwhile, they were trying to make a deal with him, and he very carefully decided to deal with the best. He employed JPMorgan Chase as his investment banker. He got Halliburton for construction, and he utilized not only Mongolian but Chinese labor to build an infrastructure.

Furthermore, because of his personal studies he knew there would be other discoveries, whether uranium or gold, copper, molybdenum, aluminum, there would be other discoveries. But by then he could say that he needed nobody. After all, with his own people, with his own money to discover a new copper mine, there was no competition. China would buy the products, the commodity, and Mongolia would benefit.

Now, the surplus cash flow appealed much greater than he even though. Five billion was big money, but ten billion, twenty billion? This speaks for itself. Even on Wall Street, even in London, even in Dubai.

Then he realized that in the world the 21st century, money talks and revolutions are the last thing people respect. After all, and he picked up this example, what did Khrushchev achieve by the Cuban missile crisis in 1962? In a recent book, Conrad Black stated that Kruschev thought he was smart. He saved Cuba at a cost of transporting missiles back and forth from the Soviet Union. Khrushchev thought he was smart, and Genghis Khan thought he was stupid. Russia had almost 40 years of Cuba, but what I'd they have? Monthly bills, headaches.

If somebody suggested to Genghis Khan that he extend his influence to a small country of Africa, he would probably go back to his old habits and tell the guy that if he didn't mend his fences, he would end up with old-fashioned Mongolian execution.

So came after 2010, when he had money, the recognition. He was invited to Buckingham Palace, and President Sarkozy invited him to the Elysées Palace. The Chinese of course always courted him, and he regularly almost yearly went to Shanghai or Beijing to pay his respects to the major Chinese leaders.

Mongolia became rich, a good neighbor, and one of the few countries like Dubai, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, with sufficient natural wealth for its citizens and monetary reserves. Actually, Genghis Khan was studying his history books. Why not Monte Carlo?

He also studied the Arab countries. He realized that they were not particularly smart. Oil had been discovered in Saudi Arabia and Iran around the end of the Second World War. Look at Iran. One revolution after another. One war after another. When there was no war, one of the ayatollahs decided to kidnap 50 Americans for one and a half years.

Genghis Khan thought that the man must have his head examined. After all, where is the beef? The way he looked at the Middle East, it was constant fighting, constant fear, constant bombing, constant conspiracies, suicide bombers. That was not for Genghis Khan. He said that those days were when he was young, a thousand years ago. Those days, however, hopefully never return to Mongolia.

A few years after the GM and MGM investments, when he became a much courted investor and head of state in the world, he started to get offers. They offered him the Kempinski Hotel in Berlin. They offered him the Via Veneto in Rome. He didn't like any of them ? too fancy, too many people, too much danger.

And then he decided to visit his friendly sister country, Hungary. He arrived on his own jet. By then he had twelve jets for the government alone, and the Hungarian government received him with great ceremony. He had the map of Budapest in front of him, and he directed his motorcade. The ambiance was perfect. In front of Gerbo was a big square and in a corner was the Hotel Kempinski, and in the other corner was the stock exchange. He decided to stay at the Kempinski, which the government of course was very happy to empty to accommodate him.

He received all the ministers who wanted to talk to him. He invited many of them to the new Mongolian University. He signed agreements for cancer and other medical research. He told the Hungarian government if they wanted to participate in a mining venture, they would get preferential treatment. And at the same time, he had the privilege of lecturing about the Mongolian and Hungarian joint past in the Budapest University.

The Hungarians were happy and they invited him for Sunday for the soccer game when the Hungarian team was competing for the world championship with the Italians. Genghis Khan accepted and told the prime minister that he himself was a soccer fan and was very proud of the Hungarian sister nation's victories in the past. He was, as he said, very happy to see the famous team personally.

On the following morning, he instructed his people to open a big bank account in OTP Bank in Budapest. He also made some investments in the stock market and actually announced some of the figures he put in the Hungarian equity markets.

At night after dinner, he went for a long walk toward the Danube. The prime minister actually objected to him walking alone, but then he reassured him. He said, "Mr. Prime Minister, with due respect, nobody will recognize me." The prime minister reassured him that they would guide him from a distance. After all, he was the most important friend of Hungary.

Nevertheless, he went for a walk. It was a beautiful evening in September, 2017. Genghis Khan, who had looked at the history books before his walk, knew that this was the place and he had a battle a thousand years ago against the Hungarians. He was alone and he reflected on the past he had traveled through ten centuries. A thousand years ago he actually left Hungary because of the military needs of Mongolia back home. So much time had passed, so much to do. A small European country and a cash-rich giant Asian country were now together. It took a thousand years to reunite them.

Genghis Khan wanted to be up early to review a speech. The Hungarian prime minister invited him to address the Hungarian parliament. He was given a proper escort, and was waiting with the traditional red carpet. The parliament was actually modeled after the British Westminster. Inside it was spacious and dignified. Four hundred sixty-five parliamentarians stood on his entrance, and he was given a polite applause.

Genghis Khan surprised them all.

"I came here after a thousand years not to heal wounds, as there were none, but heal the distance that separated two sister nations. The vicissitudes of history separated us and plunged us even in the last century into bitter solitude. We have been liberated twenty years ago. It was only in the last 20 years that we could think of our common heritage, of the desire to select not only our friends but remember our relatives.

"Liberated from a common aggressor, why not shake hands and develop individually or jointly our national desires? We have the freedom now to visit our brothers and sisters in Hungary. We can share our individual attributes. We in Mongolia welcome the Hungarian culture, the Hungarian technology. We would invite the theaters, the concerts, the opera from Budapest. We know that ten million people would be eager to develop our mining reserves, invest our money and jointly contribute to the 21st century.

"We were born in the 21st century. A thousand years of historical tragedies separated us, but in the 21st century, the Mongolian arm and the Hungarian hand meet across the ocean.
"Accordingly, I am here to discuss with the Parliament and the government of Hungary the feasibility and the desirability to offer every Hungarian citizen a dual Mongolian citizenship. Correspondingly, I speak for all Mongolians to ask for Hungarian reciprocity.

"It would be the first nation born in the 21st century to bridge distance, to bridge a different language, and first and foremost to bridge the last ten centuries and arrive in full harmony for the new century, the 21st century."

There was silence. Some members of parliament had tears in their eyes.

Genghis Khan Returned

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
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