"1848 and
Beyond"
posted
August 4, 2005
"An
African Queen"
posted August 11, 2005
"Near Hit"
posted August 16, 2005
"Orko
Gold"
posted August 18, 2005
"Mr.
Smith Goes To Hungary"
posted September 1, 2005
"A
Letter To
President Bush"
posted September 8, 2005
"Mr
Clarke -
Call In The Boys"
posted September 12, 2005
"Orezone"
posted September 23, 2005
"U.S.
Gold Corp."
posted September 29, 2005
"Mr.
Prime Minister"
posted October 13, 2005
"The
Business of Hungary is Business!"
posted October 31, 2005
"Then
And Now"
posted November 9, 2005
"50
Relatives Worse Than Yours"
posted November 14, 2005
"Bunker
Hunt-Silver-China"
posted November 28, 2005
"The
Currency of Mass Destruction"
posted December 5, 2005
"Sonesta
International Hotels Corporation"
posted December 29, 2005
"Northern
Star Mining"
posted January 16, 2006
"Other
People's Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
posted January 28, 2006
"Your
Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.
posted February 9, 2006
"A
Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani"
posted February 15, 2006
"Interview
with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation"
posted February 22, 2006
"Sparton
Resources"
posted March 1, 2006
"Harvest
Gold"
posted March 2, 2006
"Midway
Gold
Corporation"
posted March 23, 2006
"Pocketful
Of
Miracles"
posted April 8, 2006
"J.P.
Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
posted April 11, 2006
"The
Principal Guest Was Missing"
posted April 25, 2006
"Ken
Lay's Legacy"
posted May 8, 2006
"Gateway
Gold:
It's A Gold Story"
posted May 15, 2006
"Northern
Star
Mining Corp."
posted May 19, 2006
"I
Am An Immigrant!"
posted June 7, 2006
"Oil
& Gas
Energy Crisis Solution"
posted July 3, 2006
"Let
There Be Sunshine" -
Kirk Kerkorian
posted July 12, 2006
"The
Age of Mediocrity"
posted July 19, 2006
"Silver
In The
Twenty-First Century"
posted August 16, 2006
"Silver
Wheaton - SLW"
posted August 28, 2006
"A
Matter of Reasonable Doubt"
Ken Lay - Enron
posted August 30, 2006
"Brilliant
Mining Corp."
posted September 17, 2006
"The
Kennedy-Nixon debate revisited"
posted October 4, 2006
"The
Arrival of the
Nickel Billionaires"
posted October 18, 2006 |
|
BERAL,
INC.
Andrew G. Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, New York 10022
Telephone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail:
mlikar@aol.com
November
1, 2006
GLOBAL OPTIONS GROUP
(GL01 - PTC BB)
|
| Price:
$1.85 |
Earnings
per share |
| |
|
| Price
range: $3.00 - $1.28 |
2005 |
N.C. |
| |
2006E |
(1.25) |
| |
2007P
|
20¢
- 30¢ |
| |
2008
|
40¢
- 75¢ |
| |
|
|
Capital
Structure
(as of June 30, 2006) |
| Long-term
debt |
|
| Series
B convertible preferred |
53,000
-------> 42,000,000 shares |
| Common
stock |
18,774,000 |
| |
61,779,000 |
| |
|
| GLOBAL
OPTIONS GROUP |
|
Global Options is a company born in the
age of terrorism. This sentence probably will not go down
well with certain circles, but in the investment world, certain
major economic trends have created corporations who flourished
because of underlying political and economic developments.
In the late sixties and early seventies, an African-born entrepreneur,
Tony Roland, created Lonhro which was the largest mining company
then, headquartered in London. Its holdings were all over
Africa and the company was financed by Kuwaiti and other Middle
Eastern investors. I named it in an 80-page report in 1975,
"Lonhro, born in the age of OPEC."
The monetary instability which began in the 1970s and carried
through to the 21st century have created in the U.S. and Canada
three gold companies with a yearly production of one million
ounces of gold, and this represents a cash flow of about $1
billion to each company, a figure which was totally unheard
of forty or fifty years ago. Barrick, Newmont Mining and Goldcorp
combined yearly gold delivery is over five million ounces.
Each company was created by the age of potentially gold-backed
currencies and it is not very far in the future when the first
five mining companies in the world will represent a total
yearly output of $10 billion. We envisage a gold price of
$1,000 per ounce, and the $1 billion deficit of the USA with
Japan, China and other Far Eastern companies combined.
Global Options is a small company. The actual size of the
company, judging from its revenues for the first half of 2006,
is less than $50 million. See Table 2. Although the company
announced that through various acquisitions by July 15, 2006,
it has reached the size of $60 million and it aims to reach
$100 million by the end of 2006, we attribute this number
to anything but a potential springboard to the future, which
the company is currently structuring.
Through various acquisitions, a capital structure emerged
which is really commendable for a young company with ambitious
goals. With about $23 million in cash and a current ratio
of 3:1, Global has a total stockholders' equity of $57 million.
It is represented by some 20,000,000 common shares outstanding
and a convertible preferred which would basically create a
total stock market value of $120 million.
Growth Strategy
Global seeks to become a significant company
in the highly fragmented and fast growing risk mitigation
industry. According to the Lehman Brothers Security Industry
Annual Report 2004, the risk mitigation market doubled in
size from 1990 to 2000 and the market is expected to continue
its steady growth and triple in size from 2000 to 2010. As
governments, businesses and individuals focus on their security
arrangements proactively, the total international security
market for risk mitigation has grown to an estimated $14 billion,
according to Morgan Keegan & Company.
The company intends to grow through a series of acquisitions
that we believe will deliver revenue, capabilities, products
and services designed to meet the demand for the assessment
and management of risk. In addition to our acquisitions of
CBR and JLWA and pending acquisition of Safir Rosetti, LLC
as described below, we have identified additional acquisition
targets that we believe would expand our size and accelerate
our development in the risk mitigation industry. However,
we cannot assure you that any of these acquisiton targets
will actually be acquired by us or that such acquisitions,
if made, will lead to the desired financial outcomes.
On August 14, 2005, Global Options acquired CBR, a privately-held
nationwide investigations firm based in Nashville, Tennessee.
CBR's revenues and net losses for the year ended December
31, 2004 were approximately $8.8 million and $990,000 respectively.
The aggregate purchase price paid for CBR's assets and business
was approximately $5,293,000 subject to certain adjustments
through August 13, 2006 to the opening balance working capital,
as such purchase price adjustments are defined in the agreement.
The aggregate purchase price of approximately $5,293,000 consisted
of cash in the amount of $4,363,000 (net of cash acquired
of $26,000) and inclusive of a broker fee of $143,000, and
a note payable to the seller of $904,000 due August 14, 2006.
On March 10, 2006, Global purchased substantially all of the
assets and liabilities of JLWA, a privately-held crisis and
emergency consulting management firm based in Washington,
D.C. The acquisition was made pursuant to a certain asset
purchase agreement dated January 13, 2006, as amended, with
JLWA. The purchase price of approximately $6,000,000 included
$3,600,000 in cash, a promissory note in the amount of $400,000
and the issuance of 819,672 shares of our common stock, valued
at approximately $2,000,000, plus the assumption of certain
liabilities. The purchase price is subject to a post-closing
adjustment for working capital. In addition, the agreement
provides for the seller to obtain up to an additional $15,400,000
upon the attainment of certain revenue goals subsequent to
the closing of the transaction.
On January 27, 2006, Global entered into an asset purchase
agreement to acquire substantially all of the business and
assets of Safir Rosetti. Safir Rosetti is a security consulting,
investigative and intelligence firm headquartered in New York
City with seven additional offices nationwide.
The purchase price of $13 million includes $9 million in cash
and $4 million in our common stock, plus the assumption of
certain liabilities. The purchase price is subject to a post-closing
adjustment for working capital. The transaction, which is
expected to close in the second quarter of 2006, is subject
to customary representations, warranties, and covenants and
conditions, including delivery of Safir Rosetti's audited
financial statements and a financing condition. On April 3,
2006, we advanced approximately $553,000 to Safir Rosetti.
This amount will be applied towards the purchase price and,
if the closing does not occur, will be converted into a loan.
GLOBAL OPTIONS GROUP INC. & SUBSIDIARIES
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet
June 30, 2006
(Unaudited) |
Total
current assets |
41,406,968 |
Total
assets |
69,512,078 |
Total
current liabilities |
11,825,891 |
Series
B convertible preferred stock, voting, $0.001
par value,
60,000 shares authorized, 53,073 shares issued
and outstanding, liquidation preference $53,073,000 |
53 |
Common
stock, $.001 par value; 85,000,000 shares authorized;
18,774,399 shares issued and outstanding |
18,775 |
Total
stockholders' equity |
56,936,187 |
|
Almost all the capital was raised by the company
in the last two years. Since the price of the stock is $2.00,
the total capitalization of Global is $120 million. Returning
to out original thesis, the growth strategy of the company
has been meticulously mapped and reads as follows:
The company's interests can be broken perhaps into three segments:
- Investigation and litigation support
- Risk management and security
- Emergency preparation and crisis management
The basis for this expertise has been achieved
by a series of acquisitions. The breakdown of the company's
performance till the end of 2006 is illustrated in the table
to follow.
GLOBAL
OPTIONS GROUP INC. & SUBSIDIARIES
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
(Unaudited)
| |
For
the three months ended
June 30,
|
For
the six months ended
June 30,
|
| |
2006 |
2005 |
2006 |
2005 |
| Revenues |
$17,359,789 |
$1,196,567 |
2,3594,614 |
2,252,575 |
| Cost
of revenues |
8,778,654 |
594,990 |
12,122,809 |
1,088,645 |
| Gross
profit |
8,581,135 |
601,577 |
11,471,805 |
1,163,930 |
| Operating
expenses |
|
|
|
|
Total operating expenses
|
8,470,724 |
1,686,864 |
12,412,189 |
2,632,734 |
Income
(loss) from operations
|
110,411 |
(1,085,287) |
(940,384) |
(1,468,804) |
|
Let us now turn to the realistic discussion
of Global Options place in the marketplace and its market
capitalization, if such plans become reality. In the previously
mentioned objectives, such as crisis management, security
investigations, the numbers do not tie in with $100 million.
In the historical period which in a way began September 11,
2001, any of the areas connected with security investigations,
crisis management, loom to reach not $100 million but billions
and billions of dollars. The 21st century may be characterized
by far the largest economic growth in view of the fact that
three billion from the Far East joined the Western world,
and now we are expanding more to Central America, the Middle
East and Africa. The economic projects are becoming larger.
An Indian entrepreneur, Mr. Mittel, put a steel company together
with a production of 100 million tons of steel a year. In
contrast, during the war Mr. Churchill, British prime minister,
summarized that America had a total production of 110 million,
Great Britain 12 million, and Japan 7 million tons.
The demand for energy created a market for oil with 84 million
barrels a day at $60, representing $48 billion. In the age
of terrorism, the 100-million-ton steel plants of Mr. Mittel
and the oil deliveries of $50 billion a day have to be protected.
This is only just one or two isolated issues at hand.
The United States created Homeland Security, a cabinet ranking
department, with a budget of tens of billions of dollars.
The budget of Secret Service organizations such as MI-6 or
the CIA or KGB probably amounts to over $50 billion a year.
These are, however, government projects. The private programs
all involved in areas when currently Global Options has an
interest is not ten-fold, not a hundred-fold, but maybe a
thousand times bigger than the projected revenue rate of $100
million.
3-Phase
Growth Strategy
|
• Phase I: Initial
Acquisition |
• Phase II: Expansion/Acquisitions |
• Phase III: Market
Leader |
• Back-office Synergy |
• Full in-house Services |
• Organic Growth |
• Cross-Selling |
|
The question comes up, who is going to be
employed as participant or consultant to Global Options? Obviously,
we see a list of directors and key executive personnel are
people who have had vast experience in certain segments of
law enforcement, including a former director of the CIA, a
retired former director of the FBI, a well-known active general,
etc.
Brig. Gen. Harvey Schiller,
Ph.D., USAF (ret.), Chairman |
| Key Executive
Management |
Gen. Wesley Clark
Halsey Fischer
Neil Livingstone
Jeff Nyweide
Thomas Ondeck
Joseph Rosetti
Howard Safir
Rodney Slater
James Lee Witt |
| Senior Advisory Board |
Admiral William J. Crowe
Hon. R. James Woolsey
Frances D. Cook
Sir Richard Needham
Ronald B. Richard
Hon. William S. Sessions
Rodney E. Slater
Hon. William H. Webster |
|
The field of researching in large public projects
have not been discovered in the year 2003 or 2004. Well over
fifty years ago, the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica had
a group of eminent scientists/politicians to work on special
projects to guide the government, as well as the industry
of the United States. Some fifteen years ago, composed of
previous government employees, retired from high levels, formed
in Washington the Carlyle Group which went from an advisory
company to become one of the biggest international private
equity groups, investing in China, the Middle East, Russia,
in American, to a total sum of over $60 billion.
Global Options is a brain trust of eminently qualified people.
Management is putting together an organization which by the
end of 2006 would have a working base. To look forward to
2007-2008, etc., we must consider the business and the market
globally. The need for security, even alone in the United
States, runs to tons of billions of dollars. The terrorists
are financed by oil money, have not millions but hundreds
of millions at their disposal and therefore the potential
risk in managing our lives safely is still increasing, and
it's unlikely to slow down in the current decade.
Taking all this into consideration, we could only say that
if the team effort of Global and the current acquisition program
of Global are successful, and somewhere in the year 2007 a
company between $100 and $200 million will emerge as a diversified
securities-oriented company, benefiting from the leadership
of its experienced advisory board and management, the possibility
exists that Global in five or six years, so organic growth
through acquisitions would command a revenue base of one billion
dollars.
Considering the current small capitalization, and the initial
successful steps of raising $30 million capital, the creation
of a $45 million Series B convertible preferred, which created
a company eventually to be debt-free and with $20 million
in cash, is the first step towards a company which has been
created and guarded by its planned, streamlined infrastructure
to cope with the security dangers of the next ten years ahead.
Success along the line represents a manifold increase in the
price of the stock. As a last sentence, current management
has succeeded in the three vital areas for a company in the
early stage of its history:
- Attracting the right management talent.
- To execute a commendable acquisition plan.
- Refinancing the growth so the future is
based on a solid footing.
Futuristic
Picture
For January,
2007, with $100M revenues and $20M cash, Global Options
will be in a position to handle:
investment banking
&
money management
| Key Financial
Objectives |
| |
FY
2006 |
Pro
Forma
FY 2006
|
Pro Forma
YE 2006
|
Target
YE
Run Rate 2006
|
| Revenue |
$15.5M |
$39.4M |
$55-60M |
>$100M |
| Gross
margin |
45.4% |
48.0% |
50-55% |
50-55% |
| EBTDA
margin** |
- |
- |
6.8% |
10-15% |
|
** Excludes expenses related to acquisitions and financing.
Key Assumptions:
- Target 10-15% annual
organic growth assuming status quo operations.
- Upside potential
to accelerate organic revenue growth to 15-20% through cross-selling
opportunities.
- 1-2 additional acquisitions
that are accretive or can be quickly driven to profitability.
for its chosen fields of endeavor. It could
buy companies, raise more cash.
Like Giuliani Partner and the Carlyle Group, a new corporate
entity can be born. It certainly has the personnel.
The $2.00 per share price may be undervalued.
DISCLAIMER
Information
contained herein is based on data obtained from
recognized statistical services, issuers reports
or communications or other sources believed
to be reliable. However, such information has
not been verified by us and we do not make any
representation to its accuracy or completeness.
Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes
only current opinions which are subject to change.
BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts
or employees may have positions in the securities
or commodities referred to herein, and may as
principal or agent buy and sell such securities
or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer
or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director
for companies mentioned in this report. Neither
the information nor any comment expressed shall
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy any securities or commodities
mentioned herein. There may be instances when
fundamental, technical and competitive opinions
may not be in concert. This firm may from time
to time perform investment banking or other
services for or which investment banking or
other businesses from any company mentioned
in this report |
|
Andrew Racz

Dated: November 1, 2006
(Article
40 - posted November 1, 2006)
e-mail: mlikar@aol.com
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