BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Gold At 2000!!

February 14, 2008

In 1967, Herman Kahn of the Hudson Institute published a book: The Year 2000. It was a positive and futuristic prediction of the "good life." Actually, it was called The Great Society.
It was a total flop.

In 1975, Paul Erdman predicted "The Crash of '79." Nobody, not even the author, believed that the "crash" would last over 30 years.

Gold at $2,000!!

I dedicate this article to the concept of gold at $2000, not with a question mark but with an exclamation mark.

Facts, information, and logic are available today, in February 2008, indicating that in the next 5, 8 or 10 years the price of gold could top even $2000. The concept is not because of the position of the Euro versus the dollar, because of the price of oil, because of the jewelry demand from the Far East, because of the fear of inflation. The reason is entirely different.

We live in a world where 7 billion people work. When anybody works it creates paper currency on a daily basis. President Roosevelt put the country back to work by creating paper currency. I leave it to economists to explain it. The very simple results of having 7 billion people at the table or in the agricultural land or in the seas is that they have demands for all the commodities in the world, and when they don't consume they want to put their savings or temporary savings into something stable, too.

In the last two years we have seen some very distinct disequilibrium and the world has paid for it.

  1. Between the Clinton and the Bush administrations the Euro, between 1999 and 2008, has increased in value from 82¢ to $1.45. Just ask the French merchant how he feels when he goes overseas to sell his product.

  2. In the last 10 years the price of oil has gone from $20 per barrel to $100 a barrel. The result is an accumulation of oil-induced currency reserves of 500 billion in Russia, 2,000 trillion in the Far Eastern and Middle Eastern countries; $1.3 trillion in the hands of the Chinese. Just ask any of these countries how they feel when at the end of the day they have to store currencies convertible into dollars, or in fact to any other currencies that the fluctuations are meaningful.

  3. Politicians all over the world—Brazil, Australia, Canada, America—talk about so-called "alternative fuels." Bio, oil, ethanol, and ask about the possibility of increasing the price for wheat, coal. The expected increase of the wheat and coal gain momentum. Surely every presidential candidate in the United States wants to double ethanol production, wants a great deal of money for alternative energy, and none of them mentions the potential price of corn and wheat, which is costing real money for 300 million Americans and other countries.

  4. Anybody who knows that agriculture commodities are the breadbasket of the world. When prices in those commodities go up, inflation obviously gets under way. If inflation increases, the price of gold obviously, according to traditional manners, are going to increase.

  5. The world today consumes daily 85 million barrels of oil. The famous international money manager, Mr. Jimmy Rogers, hit the table on many occasions saying that in the last 40 years there hasn't been one single major oil discovery. He is hedging his bet on the value of the Chinese currency, which has already increased from $9 to $7, and according to Jimmy Rogers will go to $3 in 5 years. However, the 7 billion people who work get more prosperous and the demand for all kinds of commodities will increase. According to published sources, the price of oil will rise, and rise substantially. Oil at $120, $130 again is a tremendous push for gold.

Let us now concentrate on commodity or the currency, or whatever we call it, gold itself.

First, we must appreciate the fact that gold that's mined in the world does not disappear and Central Banks have meaningful gold reserves.

The countries with gold reserves are listed above. The largest is the United States with 8,100 tons of reserves.

The actual gold production going back to 1980 is impressive but we must keep in mind that in the last two years gold production remained steady and the actual production has been on decline.

Let us not look at the actual figures. In the Central Banks there are 32,000 tons of reserves with a corresponding value of $1,000,000,000,000, or $1 trillion at the price of $1000.

For simplicity we have to create a table. Every ton of gold is equivalent to 32,150 troy ounces of gold and, accordingly, Table 3 shows the background material for future arguments.

The question is how much the gold reserve is able to absorb the increased demand.

  1. At around 2005, most of the Middle Eastern countries had no gold in their reserves. The purchases were entirely done by private sources.

  2. The income of oil-producing countries is a direct match to the world's gold reserves as well as the gold yearly production.

Let us take Saudi Arabia and the assumption that it will buy gold with all the money it nets with its export of oil. This is a mathematical example but let us now look at the various facts.

Saudi Arabia sells 10 million barrels of oil a day. At $100 daily rate, when you match it with the gold reserves of the world, a hideous conclusion becomes clear.


If we take into account all the other factors such as the increased cost of living, the increased volume of trade, the increased demand from private sources for gold, we can actually paint a picture at $1,500 an ounce, $2,000 an ounce, or even $5,000 an ounce –a different picture. Demand outstrips supply.

Somewhere between $1,000 and $2,000 the investment bankers of the world will realize that instead of telling their clients to put their money in Canadian dollars or Australian dollars or Swiss francs or Euro, they will realize the value in gold. If they store their money in gold, they will start to do business in gold.

Let me recapitulate what the late Edmond Safra, Chairman of Republic National Bank, has done. I knew him well. He has done business with everybody. When the Russians began to have capital surplus in their trade in Europe, they were afraid to leave their money in banks in dollars, because they owed money to the United States and they were afraid that America would confiscate it. So Safra told them to leave the money in Euro dollars. These were paper transactions. The Russians deposited the money in Euro dollars but a month later they used it to buy tractors, they used it to buy cars, medical equipment, and paid them also in Euro dollars. The Euro currency market is the prelude to the Gold Indexed market.

Suddenly other countries, other nations like my native Hungary, began to use Euro currencies which was basically a way to avoid past obligations but carry on regular trade.

If nations can be persuaded to make gold deposits at specified rates, investment bankers will start parceling out gold-backed bonds and gold-backed securities, because they want to generate commissions on the gold savings accounts.

Actually, it is the current generation of politicians who are digging the grave of the current currency transactions by being irresponsible.

We had sub-prime lending, with a loss of $500 billion.

We had before junk bonds of Drexel, so $500 billion has gone.

Even the individual "traders" increased the value of the trade. In the early 1960s Edi Gilbert lost millions. Bosky traded in tens of millions. By 1995, Nick Leeson of Baring Brothers lost $1.4 billion.

Enron, $7 billion.

Society General, $7 billion. The numbers are increasing.

The time will come when men or able traders will deal in gold. After all, the world is changing.

In February 2008, I have been notified by one of the best known international banking house that they have tentatively approved my idea of using Gold Indexed Bonds for financing companies. I have tried to bring it to the attention of the financial community for several years.

The international banking firm annually asked me to present companies to them for gold-backed financing.

I wrote my last report on Gold Index Bonds in October 2007. On the front page I placed a remark that I was 7 years old when I began to understand, in 1945, after the war, the value of gold. That was when I first heard the word "gold."

It was one of the most moving moments of my life when my old friend Saul Steinberg remarked at the dinner table that there is perhaps no other person in the world but Andrew Racz who was interested in gold at the age of 7.

Let me go through, perhaps with my history, as an illustration for the future.

After the war most people in Hungary were very poor. My father died and my step-mother had to be innovative to keep the family going. I was 14 when she sent me out to the villages to sell leather goods and bring home some money. She kept the money in gold and dollars. There were 12 dollars equal to one Napoleon gold, which is roughly an ounce of gold.

My stepfather and his cousins every night were trading gold and various foreign currencies back and forth. They were on the post-war black market. But the money was always measured in gold.

My stepmother, in 1956 when I left, had her own Bank stored in the kitchen. Her banking assets were 11 Napoleons and about $500. We lived much better than the average family.

When I was 21, I went to the Belgian Congo as a student journalist and I was paid $10,000 for my articles for interviewing President Tshombe and Sir Roy Walensky.

In 1964 when I emigrated to America, I had $700 in my pocket but by 1966 I could pay $5,000 for a wedding for 150 people in the Plaza Hotel.

In 1967 I met Saul Steinberg, chairman of then Leases. Associating with him I was lifted from the class of Hungarian immigrant to a Wall Street analyst. I made on Leases about $100,000. In 1969 Mr. Steinberg wanted to buy Chemical Bank for approximately $1 billion. That was the first time I heard the word "$1 billion" and I heard it from a self-starter, a 29-year-old businessman.

Many years later, in 1983, I met Harold Simmons, called the Texas Tycoon, to my mind the best securities analyst in the world, who built up a net worth in 25 years from $100 million to as recently published $7.4 billion. He did it on pure securities analysis and even today I try to remember his wise words on the transactions we did together, the acquisition of 16% of Maxim, which was about $150 million, and the potential takeover of Union Carbide, which was $4 billion.

The most colorful illustration I was ever injected with was my involvement in the Hunt brothers play in silver. Many people analyzed the brothers' objectives. Many people attacked them. It took me years to realize and I would like to make a statement here that although in 1980, in an article called "Gold and the Polish Debt," I recommended Bunker Hunt for a Nobel Prize for economics.

In looking back I was right, and the Hunts were right. They pointed out to the world that commodity prices were rising, that paper currencies would suffer, that we were entering a new world. They were 25 years ahead of their time, and he paid a price that is unbelievably harsh for a human being.

The Hunt brothers had the courage to think ahead and when they suffered, when they were humiliated, they went back to the drawing board and rebuilt their empire quietly, profitably. Every year I try to encourage the Hunt brothers to permit me to write their memoirs but they turn me down.

Obviously the silver accumulation was only 25 years ahead of the time.

I only try to relate the growth of the numbers as they came into my life.

Saul Steinberg's son, Jonathan Steinberg, became president and formed a company called Wisdom Tree that manages about $4.5 billion in ETFs. Jonathan Steinberg was an inventor in his business and he got some of the best people in the world to support him. I heard that he complained to his father that he still fails to get $1 billion extra every month. He was upset and he told me that he would like to be as great a man as his father.

When I told him one month that he didn't get a billion dollars that that's only a bump in the road, he was relieved that other people had similar setbacks.

And now we are approaching an election in 2008. The candidates talk of spending—universal health care and similar items. The USA is bankrupt. We have $2 trillion, or maybe more, in foreign hands. Our gold reserves are down to 8,000 tons.

In going through the numbers our total gold reserves could be wiped out in about six months by the oil production of Iran, Iraq and Venezuela—three nations who are absolutely not in love with the United States. We can do it.

You ask would it better if the price of gold were $2,000 and our gold reserve of 8,000 ton would be worth much more money?

Investment bankers and securities analysts are not politicians.

I had the privilege of discussing with President Nixon in 1982 my theory of using American gold to buy up the dollar deposits of Russian banks, the Russians bank credit and bankrupt the Soviet Union.

I had a similar discussion with the late Gov. John B. Connelly of Texas.

The issue today is not who is going to wipe out whom, who is going to demand more from whom. The issue is now the survival of the world while we need oil, when we need wheat, when we need currencies to foster the trading activities of 7 billion people. It is my humble opinion that gold at $2,000 would be a step in the right direction.

Gold at $200 is not an inflation hedge. Gold at $2,000 has nothing to do with what's called the lunatic fringe, as they used to be called. Gold at $2,000 is just one step towards a rational world.

The world in 2008 has changed a great deal from the time I was 7 in 1945 and I began to understand that people In Gold Trust.

The number has grown phenomenally.

Last week when I was notified about the Gold Index Bonds to be used for corporate transaction, I was also asked by the same sources to try to persuade the government of Mongolia, Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe to accept the fact that if they monetize gold, the value of Rio Tinto would increase. The 2.5 million Mongolians would be able to get very early at least $500, if not a billion dollars, and the peaceful development of Mongolia would begin.

This report is not an exposé of Mongolia, except that I state that expected prices in five or ten years Mongolia could be one of the richest countries in the world. At the moment we are only talking of the 2.5 Mongolians. However, every human being is part of the universe which is being financed by currencies and gold.

The takeover value of Rio Tinto is $150 billion. The value of Mongolia's mineral reserves is probably $250 billion. That makes $400 billion.

I must say that it is exhilarating to be involved with such transactions. I have written at least 200 pages on Mongolia, and many articles. It makes me feel that I have fulfilled partially my destiny in this world.

My step-mother, who took over my younger brother and me in 1945, after my parents died, had tremendous faith in me. She did not know the expression "one billion dollars," she did not know the expression "four hundred billion dollars."

For a curious coincidence she did know the name of Saul Steinberg because in 1968 it was Saul Steinberg who smuggled my younger brother out of Hungary.

However, I venture to suggest that in 1968 Saul Steinberg didn't know the word "four hundred billion dollars."

Looking through all the ventures of a lifetime, $400 billion would justify saying the words "I have arrived." However, it's happening now and it is becoming a reality.
Gold is going to $2,000! Both myself and gold reached a height that only occurs in the American Dream.

It is 2008. My stepmother, Nixon, Connelly and Sofra are dead.

Saul Steinberg and I are very much alive.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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