BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Gold Indexed Bonds

October 11, 2007

In a private conversation in the summer of 1982 President Nixon, after studying my theories said,

"I would have used the power of American gold reserves to confront Brezhnev and win a strong point about Russia's financial weakness."

In 1982 Nixon wasn't President, and the Cold War lasted almost another decade.

The Birth of an Idea

I first heard the value of gold when I was seven years old, the year was 1945, the beginning of hyper-inflation in Hungary. We had only one of the six rooms heated, so after dinner my father and three of his cousins were pushing around the table, Swiss franc, British pound and Napoleon gold. Usually they decided to convert everything into gold and put it in the vault.

When it comes to paying the village people who brought us food, my father paid with small Napoleon gold. If they didn't have gold, we wouldn't have food. That is when I first learned that In Gold We Trust.

I lived in South Africa in 1961 and visited the country many times. I even became friendly with the late Edmond Safra and Dr. Dietrich, the former state president of South Africa. I learned that investing in gold-related assets, meaning mining shares in the 1970's, I made money and in fact I generated a lot of commissions, when my fellow brokers could hardly meet the bill at the dinner table. In 1975 when Wall Street was starving, we bought a house at the lake in South Salem, New York, coming from the commissions I generated in selling gold shares to my clients. The summers at the lake were magnificent, and I reaffirmed my belief that In Gold We Trust.

In 1981 I was fortunate to get acquainted with President Nixon. When I got to know him a bit better I acquainted him with a theory of how to beat the Russians with American gold reserves. Actually I wrote an article, Russia in Bankruptcy, in which I stated that capitalism may not be able to pay for the Cold War, but communism simply cannot afford it. The Cold War was getting more and more expensive for the Soviet Union.

The story that I was telling to President Nixon was very simple. America has gold reserves. Float gold-backed bonds for about $1 trillion. This money would be segregated like Social Security money. Then, American agents would go all over the world and visit in London, Barclays the Westminster Bank and ask the bank how much is the floating credit of the Soviet Union. If the answer was $100 million, rolled over every month, the American agent would simply hand over a bill for $100 million and extinguish the Russian credit. Now, if the Russians want to get money not over the $100 M credit line at the end of the month, they have to come to the United States, their new creditor.

If it's done quietly, with $800 billion spent, the United States could simply buy up the world wide Russian credit and when it comes to the first of the month, Russia would be in a dilemma. We could simply say, that they should go and try to get credit from their friends. The US Treasury wants cash.

The idea appealed to the President. He went through various angles and subsequently stated that if he were President now, he would use this. After all, what is easier, to fight Brezhnev with a checkbook, or missiles?

It was then in 1980 that gold-backed bonds became a fixation in my mind. In Gold people Trust. If a nation instead of printing money would float in London or in New York a $100 million gold-backed bonds, it would have to pay only perhaps two or three percent interest rate instead of the prevailing rate, which certainly in the early 80's was in the vicinity
of 7 to 10 percent.

The Signs of Uncertainty

An idea came back to my mind. By 2001 and 2002 the US dollar, which was the cornerstone of international trade, had begun to decline. Budget deficits, the Afghanistan and Iraq wars led to a position where America had to borrow every day $2 billion worth of foreign currency to pay for its deficits. By the time the Chinese had over a trillion dollars in US dollars, the dollar decline became a daily phenomenon. Correspondingly, the Euro began to climb in the current decade from $0.90 to $1.50. This issue created another problem. Frankly, we are putting Europe out of business.

Actually, Spain and Italy, but particularly France and Germany found it very difficult to cope with a $1.50 Euro. It increases their unemployment, stops some of their factories from working, puts some of their manufactured goods out of the reach of the world market It creates unemployment and further pension liabilities.

Living in the world of European Union, we kept the old habit of having every commodity in the world, gold, silver, aluminum, copper, wheat, uranium, everything measured in US dollars. What it amounts to is that when the dollar declines, yes the purchase of this commodity is cheaper. At the same time for the sellers, oil, a fact for manufacturing almost any kind of equipment, the proceeds from the sale of goods to the dollar markets virtually wipes out the profit.

To make matters more colorful, we call the current age, The Age of Commodities. Commodity prices have increased from $1 copper to almost $4 copper, $6,000 a ton nickel to $50,000, oil from $20 a few years ago to $80. The sale of this vast amount of commodities and the proceeds of trillions of dollars from the commodity markets, for the commodity producers, have been dropping in real value when it's converted back to their own currency. The cheap dollars become the Currency of Man's Destruction.

Well, the commodity producers didn't say too much so far. The next frank French Revolution is yet to come. But the OPEC and other oil producers argue that it is true that oil is $80, but in terms of the Euro, they have to take away one third of the price because of the change in currency values.

We reached a stage when the commodity markets actually not only compete with the stock markets, influence the stock markets, but in terms of daily turnover, represent such magnitude that if they had votes, if there was a vote in the world market for the commodity producers, they would vote the dollar out of existence.

This kind of controversy cannot be sustained. The major change is accentuated that with the current commodity markets, several trillion dollars in cash is accumulated in the Middle East and in the Far East. Part of the money goes for infrastructure, but the other part of the money is investments and savings. Up until the habit was to hold all these currencies, all these monies in dollars, even though they saw a sharp deterioration of their savings and the value.

The pressure on the current system, and by the current system I mean October, 2007, comes from two corresponding sources, the commodity price for the commodity producers is falling in value because of the dollar, and on the top of it their savings is depreciating because of the value of the dollar.

If we want to put it in rough graphic terms, if a commodity producer, an oil producing nation, is losing 15 cents or 20 cents in value because of the decline of the dollar and their savings loses another 20 cents, we are talking of a merchant who gets in real terms, 40 cents less off of the dollar when it conducts daily business.

And this is when the dollar comes in. The dollar technically may be forced to give up its crucial and traditional position in the world.

Gold Anew

And this is where gold comes into the picture. For the beginner, we have to appreciate that 90 percent of the gold that has ever been mined in history, is still in regular form and available for trade.

I never thought that we'd go back to the barter business that prevailed in Hungary from 1945-1947. Frankly, I do not wish to go back to that system. However, the seven-year old boy in 1945 saw his parents daily work converted into Napoleon gold and bought the food which was necessary for living.

Sixty years later, isn't the situation is the same. The commodity producing country, the oil producing country, have to buy food, have to build cities, have to modernize their life, and they may come to the same conclusion as the lucky middle class in Hungary, that they store the value of their daily existence in gold.

Of course, the world has advanced in the last 60 years. It is inconceivable that any government, let's say the Nigerian government receiving its income from oil would not only buy gold, but settle its food bill with Ghana, coffee and cocoa, paying with the same gold.

Gold-backed Bonds

We have an international monetary system. We have an international bond market of various currencies, in various categories, government bonds, corporate bonds, secured bonds, and of course, real estate backed bonds.

If Ghana would like to be paid for cocoa and coffee in a solid currency, they would welcome the idea if the financiers of London or Dubai or America would create gold-backed bonds which act just as frequently as ordinary treasury bonds. Gold-backed bonds can be created by governments. However, it is more than likely that they would be created by corporations.

First of all, what is a gold-backed bond? It is a bond with an interest rate with a denomination, with an expiration date and any other characteristics like any legal tender. If a company realized that it could create a bond with full or partial gold backing, and pay less interest and it would be welcomed more by the international purchasing community, by hedge funds, by private equities, they would resort to creating such paper.

Let us take a practical example. Not so long ago Travis tendered $24 billion for TXU the largest utility in America. For a few months it was difficult to close the deal because the banks had difficulty placing the bonds.

What if KKR had access to sufficient gold that it could issue 100 percent or 50 percent or 25 percent of gold-backed bonds, wouldn't the buyer run? And the takeover would have happened much faster.

Take the large or not so large gold companies that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Barick has been known to be an acquisition-oriented company, issuing shares on each occasion. If Barick raised $500 million in gold-backed bonds, maybe the acquisitions would have been much cheaper on a per share basis, and raised the price of their stock.

Let us not forget that the 21st Century created other new phenomena in the market. We have now $1.5 trillion in the hedge funds industry. The hedge funds move very fast. The hedge funds have money available. The hedge funds make acquisitions. Major investment banks buy into hedge funds. The pool of capital very soon may be $3–$4 trillion. If you have the private equity companies, we are talking $5 trillion if not $10 trillion.

If these fast moving entities have access to gold-backed bonds, which they issue for their activities, they would acquire tremendous power, accelerate their programs, and expand their programs. Take for instance a famous example, KKR buying Hilton Hotels not so long ago. Hilton is supposed to double its hotels in China because of the 2008 Olympics. If they used gold-backed bonds and made the acquisition cheaper, there is more money available to expand the hotel chain, and in fact would create all over the world a better climate for hotels and entertainment.

If the same thing applies to the steel industry, we would probably have the entire international steel industry reorganized, mainly those who have gold-backed bonds, and those who don't.

Gold-backed bonds came into being because a monetary system that has served the world since the Bretton-Woods Agreement in 1944 is no longer valued. The lack of trust is basically the lack of trust in the continual buying power of the dollar, and as such, can create a tremendous dislocation between other currency values, commodity prices, particularly if the producing countries demand a change of currency denomination other than the dollar.

In this atmosphere comes gold. The creation of gold-backed bonds by governments, by corporations, by utilities, is a refuge which would absorb the current dissatisfaction of the monetary system.

It is not a solution.

It can lead to silver-backed bonds. It can lead to oil-backed bonds. It can lead to a commodity exchange system into which we are in any case going into.

The recovery of Europe was not fueled by gold-backed bonds after the Second World War. Gold has, however served as a storage of values to my family and in fact to many families in Europe. We had something to trust. We had exchange of values to sustain our lives.

To my mind, we are at the same turning point.

In 1947 Hungary would have collapsed if they hadn't brought in a total devaluation and brought in a new currency. In the year 2007 we are heading toward something similar. The dollar as an ultimate currency is breaking down. We can, if we do nothing, wake up one morning with an international monetary catastrophe. It could be an announcement by Saudi Arabia and a number of Middle Eastern countries demanding the price of oil set by a combination of currencies or the Euro. It can be ushered in by other drastic changes between currencies, commodities and exchange rates, or even could lead to sequester ship.

We can, in fact, forcefully live through Mr. Erdmann's famous book, The Crash of '79.

However, thanks to mankind and thanks to the gold mining industry for the last two hundred years, we have sufficient amounts of gold in the world to have gold and silver backed bonds, which could be a bridge between the dying system that we have and the new system which is to be born.

Gold is not a solution. Gold, however, and gold-backed bonds gives us the opportunity to believe that there is a way to bridge over the 20th and the 21st Century.

We have come to this historical point, because the world has to realize that

"The Way We Were"

was a success only on the movie screen.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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