BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

In Gold We Trust

February 26, 2009

The Crisis That Almost Wasn't


"What will happen to all the corporations who successfully issue

Gold-Indexed Dividend Bonds?

If the price of gold goes up, the bonds are attractive. If the company obtains money via gold-indexed dividend bonds at a time when most companies cannot raise money, their stock is likely to go up and the bonds are converted.

Why do we trust in gold?

Well, after the war when I was a seven-year-old child in Hungary, we first had no money, then the government created inflation by printing money, and then the system created hyperinflation, and then a new currency came into being and the old simply disappeared.

It was not only the Weimar Republic of Germany, it was the 1947-48 currency crisis in West Germany. They simply printed a new currency.

So what happened to the Hungarians in '46 and the West Germans I '47 who had monetary assets? Everything was wiped out except what they held in gold. And now in February 2009, President Obama recommends a $3.5 trillion budget.

We should reflect on the good old times until the 21st century brought in President George W. Bush. We should reflect on the good old times before "W". The decades which led to his $1 trillion deficit, those days before the year 2000, the days when there was

"The Crisis That Almost Wasn't"

Gold has been associated with the Rothschilds 200 years ago during the Napoleon war. Disraeli, at a time Great Britain purchased the Suez Canal, or rather the land for the Suez Canal. Gold was the king during the second World War and afterwards, and it has become every day money when on August 15, 1971, President Nixon closed the gold window. At that time, gold effectively became a floating currency.

I have had a lifelong fascination with gold. I was seven years old when I saw my step-parents and family after the end of the war, speculating all day long in the black markets for gold and hard currency. This fascination carried me as a student. After I spent a year at Cambridge, I managed to spend four months in South Africa where I worked in one of the mining houses but interviewed half of Johannesburg, including Harry Oppenheimer of the Anglo-American." In early 1982, I presented a study to President Nixon in an article which stated that Russia was in bankruptcy.

The price of gold is inversely related to the size of the budget deficit. However, when politicians talk about a $2 trillion deficit, the only reason gold declines is to liquidate for paying the grocery bills. Whatever way we look at it, gold will remain in the stratosphere until monetary discipline is reestablished.

I worked out a simple model. The United States would float for dollars a convertible bond against all its gold reserves. Taking this money, the United States would buy out at each major bank the Russian line of credit. In practical terms, if let's say Russia had a $300 million line of credit with Westminster Bank of England, and if the United States paid off the $300 million, then when let's say November 30, 1982 came long and the Russians want to refinance the debt, they would have to come to the United States. Having read the study, my friend, the late Governor John B. Connolly of Texas made a speech to some two thousand people in New York City in which he stated that just today in the Financial Times we read that the polls want to refinance a $22 billion loan.

The former Secretary of the Treasury, who was also a three-term governor of Texas, read the Financial Times. The Polish government wants to reorder a $22 billion loan.

No sir! We want cash.

Talk to your friends, the Soviet Union.

President Nixon summarized the conversation, saying that if he were in the White House he would try it. After all, he said Andrew's plan is to fight the Russians through bank accounts instead of missiles. We cannot be too much of a loser.

The history of finance never stops. We have invented the euro currency system which enabled Americans and, in fact, every nation in the world to own euros as opposed to dollars or other smaller currencies. The euro became actually the currency of the European Union, by far the greatest competitor to the U.S. dollar in the world's financial history.

However, we have to take into consideration that in ten years' time the euro oscillated between $.80 to $1.50 and is currently selling at $1.25. The euro is a currency but by no means more stable than the U.S. dollar and certainly more stable than the British pound and the Russian ruble.

In 1971, John Connolly, who was then Secretary of the Treasury, made a speech in Europe for the so-called G-7 international bankers, saying, "Gentlemen, the dollar is our currency but your headache." In the last ten years, hypothetically somebody could say that from the European Union the euro is a European currency but everybody's headache.

The oscillations continued. In the last decade, the price of gold has gone up from $250 in 1982 to $1,000 as of February 20, 2009. In the interim, the economic structure of the world has collapsed, but the oscillation of the dollar, the euro, gold, not to mention the Japanese yen, the Russian ruble, the British pound, continued up and down and it has given a very handsome income to many of the financial experts who predicted short- and long-term ups and downs of all currencies, which frankly very soon I feel will be extended to silver. As a matter of fact, a new element entered the picture. The price of oil goes in two years from $20 to $145, down to $40, and what was surprising to me is that the world has not worked out an oil currency in a world of oil economy. As a matter of fact, this could happen. People can borrow money in a way that repayment or interest is tied to oil. If that happens, we may actually witness the collapse of Western civilization.

After all, the dollar and the euro are based on solid economies. Oil is tied to OPEC, and there is no history of solid economic development to an oil-based economy, but there is a correlation between oil and terrorist movements. Imagine of Sadam Hussein had kept Kuwait in 1991. A currency based on oil, controlled by Sadam Hussein, could have been devastating.

Saddam Hussein would have tried to conquer Israel the way Hitler occupied France. In fact, under this scenario, Saddam Hussein would have driven to London in a limousine, a place Hitler couldn't invade, with weapons in 1941.

An oil-indexed currency would have changed history.

Let us now examine a world tied to gold. If it happens it will be gradual, but if it happens--this is my opinion--it would lead to greater currency stability and an economic upswing in the world today. Gold-indexed bonds are different from what I call the gold-indexed dividend financing. Gold-indexed bonds are basically a simple bond which is convertible to gold at a certain price at a certain time. Such a financial instrument is obviously limited in size because the amount of gold that is available for such purpose is fairly limited.

I am always proud that the first silver-indexed bonds for Sunshine Mining I devised for Sunshine. The bond was convertible at a $20 silver, $60 million in size, and was a total flop because of the decline and the bad structuring of the instrument. The silver-indexed bonds and its total collapse convinced me that I would have to research to a greater extent to be practical to our financial system.

The Simplest Form of a Gold-Indexed Bond

$1,000

30-year maturity

 

Dividend: 0.1 ounces of gold

 

Sinking fund amortization

Modification:

 

Bond is convertible. If we assume that gold is going up 50%, a 40% conversion is in order.

Assume a conversion in 5 years:

(A) 

5-year dividend is about 0.75 ounces of gold. 50% increases x 150 = $750.

(B) 

Retain dividend for 10 years, gold reaches $2,000. $1,000 total retain + converted bond.

The gold-indexed dividend bond is not necessarily tied to physical delivery of gold. The simple structure is a $1,000 bond paying an interest rate of let's say 1/10th of an ounce of gold every year. It has a 30-year life and a certain amortization to pay the money back. If gold goes up and the investor holds the gold, let's say, for 20 years, the rate of return could be more than rewarding. However, not many corporations or even states can afford to throw gold into a financial scheme. There are some who can afford it, but the theory is different.

Let's assume that we have a corporation with 100,000,000 shares, selling at $5, down from $20 in the last collapse, but basically in a solid position. We are creating a $1,000 bond convertible at $7.50 and a 6% coupon. The 6%, however, is tied to gold at $1,000 and if the price of gold goes up $25, the dividend rate goes up to let's say 6.15%. Thus, if gold is $1,100, the dividend would be 8%. The numbers I'm quoting here at totally arbitrary and simply for illustration. What is not for illustration is the fundamental benefit that a corporation would get by getting an actually zero cash interest piece of paper if the dividend is paid neither in cash nor in gold, but so-called PIK, which is the security of the company itself.

The financing therefore would be done at zero cash interest cost, and beneficial to a company which is sound today, cheap because of the market conditions, and can use the $1,000 to retire bank debt and therefore strengthen its capital structure.

If the stock goes back to $7.50 and the bond is called, we can postulate that the PIK dividend at the last evaluation is paid for two more years, and therefore the rate of return for the investors could be very high, whereas the corporation would receive a meaningful amount of cash at a time when the debt economy in which we live today is lifting its stature by the financing in the marketplace.

The "Golden Picture"

Company

Solid, undervalued -- solid financing.

Monetary need

Expansion, modernization

Shares

100,000,000 shares outstanding

$5.00 price, high $20

Offering

$10,000,000

10,000 units, convertible at 7.50

10,000 warrants at $6.00

6% coupon -- when Gold is at $950/ounce; dividend pay at PIK

Indexing

Dividend rate at Gold Price

Coupon

Gold Price

6%

$9.00

6.5%

+25

7%

1,000

8%

1,100

9%

1,200

10%

1,300

STOP

Notice:

If, after 3 years bond is called, we have executed an $8.00 per share financing and paid out approximately $240 in PIK interest.

 

Our company will then enter the 21st century.

The configuration I have presented, which is what I call the classical gold-related dividend financing, can be beneficial today to a vast majority of the companies. I can only hope that there will be no junk bond market developed from such an idea, because it's not devised to entice the public to put money in hopelessly over-leveraged companies, but on the contrary, help our good corporations to lift themselves from the financial mess in which they find themselves.

There are, however, an enormous number of variations from the above scenario.

Almost every finance company with production in gold and silver could do similar financing which actually be converted fully and partially into the commodity, namely gold and silver, and pay the interest in gold and silver.

The theory can be extended to other commodities with certain configuration. I have in mind in general terms, for instance, an industry like nickel or molybdenum or aluminum or copper where the bond can be paid off at a higher priced copper than it's selling today. In other words, if we do a $1,000 bond where interest is payable 6% tied to gold and payable in copper, the conversion price of the bond if it's tied to a higher priced copper, makes the bond probably saleable and the accumulation of the dividends in copper, tied to copper itself, would increase substantially and provide an extremely attractive paper for the investors.

What have we accomplished? We provide cash for a copper company at a lower level of its history. Recently, for instance, we read that the Chinese pulled out of the Belgian Congo. It is a tragedy for everybody, but it is a tragedy which may prevent by commodity-related gold-indexed bonds which would provide the capital cheaply and bridge over the production deficit until the price readjusts itself.

Everything I said can be made more attractive with zero coupon financing. This is a field which is known to the investment banking community where the leverage is simply the increase in the price of the commodity, enabling a producing company to obtain money cheaply.

Nothing, however, can compare with the benefits that a country could draw from a set of financing. When a country is in deficit and lacks the ability for solid financing, it is a tragedy for the people. Currencies fall, unemployment rises, production declines, and the human suffering accumulates.

If, however, on a multi-billion dollar level, indexed bonds can be issued but the dividend is paid with extra currency under consideration. Accordingly, if we consider our theory for a country, the benefits have to be measured in other than ordinary financial numbers. If a country is in deficit and if the currency declines, all its outstanding obligations sell 90, 80, 70 cents to the dollar. This means that the country is actually frozen into debt.

If they can make a dividend attractive so that various commodity production, so that permanent money can be obtained in the marketplace, and if they can use that money to repurchase depressed bonds, their currency improves and the benefits are sizeable.

The conceptual interpretation of mobilizing the dividends. The history of mankind has been characterized by mobilizing unusual efforts. In 1940, Churchill mobilized the English language against Hitler. A year later, Professor Silard of Hungary communicated his ideas to Professor Einstein. Einstein referred it to President Roosevelt, and the Manhattan Project was born, which probably saved Western civilization.

Is there anything wrong if we say that if not gold alone, but gold-indexed bonds, the concept of creating large-scale financing tied to the price of gold and making the financing acceptable to the marketplace is an unusual or unacceptable idea? On the contrary, it is an idea that mankind can create.

Today President Obama came to power determined to flood the market with approximately perhaps $2 trillion to save American industrial society. He is printing money. Gold has always been contrary to printing money. Gold-indexed bonds are a mathematical formula in my imagination, which is an extension of the value of gold against a flood of paper money. Could it work? I cannot say.

The only reference I have is that one day I entered President Nixon's study on East 65th Street, and I said, "Mr. President, I have an idea of how to fight the Russians." The President, in maybe the proudest moment of my life, after several seconds said, "I would have tried to use it."

The test of what I am propagating, what I call gold-indexed dividend financing, can be tested easier than the Manhattan Project. A corporation has to file it with a major underwriter, and if it works, it will work. It will work. It could work, it could fail. But if it works, it works. And if I can repeat two, three, four or five times, newspapers will write about it. works, it works. And if I can repeat two, three, four or five times, newspapers will write about it.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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