BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Interview with Jim Davis - President of Leeward Capital Corporation

September 4, 2007

(LWC - TSX.V)

Price: C. 22¢

Shares outstanding: 71,000,000

Molybdenum exploration company

Cash: $3M

Market value: C. $14M


 Interview with
Jim Davis

President
Leeward Capital Corporation

 ANDREW RACZ:   For the point of view of identification, we are talking to Mr. Jim Davis, president of Leeward Capital Corporation. Mr. Davis, in the last few weeks almost every mining exploration company has lost 50 percent of its value. What was the high for your stock in June?

JIM DAVIS:   I would say in June we were around 32 cents.

Q:   And currently what's the bid price?

A:   I think it's 23 cents.

Q:   So in other words, you lost 50 percent of your value. What has happened in Canada that precipitated this decline?

A:   Well, you've seen a general market decline in Canada over the summer months, the summer doldrums, when people are not that much interested in buying stocks or are on vacation. Holidays and everything and they do not pay attention to the market. The big selling was triggered by this subprime loan crisis. Investors liquidate everything they can find in order to cover their positions in other types of issues.

Q:   So in other words, what you are saying is that there was an asset liquidation all around Calgary, Toronto, Vancouver, and New York City.

A:   That's correct.

Q:   At the same time, your principal interest is molybdenum, correct?

A:   That is correct.

Q:   Molybdenum is a base metal, correct?

A:   It is a base metal. It's often referred to as the energy metal because applications in the industry, pipelines to refineries, are being used as a catalyst. It's not just new and replacement pipelines, which might create an avalanche of demand for the silvery medal. Molybdenum's applications are wide, diverse and expanding. The metal is used in paint pigments, lubricants, catalysts and prosthetic legs; the radioisotope Molybdenum-99 is used in cancer treatment. A percent molybdenum is also used in stainless steel for higher pressure piping in ore than 30 desalination plants (sea water reverse osmosis) now operating in ten countries. As abrupt climate change impacts fresh water supply, a great demand for desalination plants could emerge.

Because of the nuclear energy renaissance, condensers in the hundreds of planned and proposed nuclear power plants may need up to one million meters four- to six-percent molybdenum stainless steel. The number of power plants under construction, planned or proposed, rises weekly or monthly, and now approaches nearly 300. Aging U.S. reactors could require replacement over the next two decades. About 30 new reactors are in various stages are being moved forward in the United States. Not all will be of the size requiring a vast quantity of molybdenum, but sufficient growth in the nuclear sector should firm demand for the metal.

According to a recent article published by IMOA, "Molybdenum containing alloy sales for FGD applications are booming. "The U.S. Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) set a deadline of 2010 for many coal-fired power plants to install FGD, or Flue Gas Desulfurization, systems. Basically, there are air pollution systems, which remove acid-causing sulfur dioxide from the exhaust gases of coal-fired electrical plants.

The nickel-based alloy C-276, which includes 16 percent molybdenum, is a corrosive-resistant component in piping and component upgrades in Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) systems. During 2006, it was estimated more than $1 billion was spent on molybdenum bearing alloy. IMOA believes the FGD systems could rack up $168 billion in worldwide sales between 2006 and 2020, of which about $15 billion would be used for moly-bearing alloys. This assumes two-thirds of the world's coal-fired generators install the FGD systems by 2020.

On the books, the U.S., China and India propose to build another 800 coal-fired power plants to met energy needs before 2020. New plants would likely require the FGD systems, which could potentially increase the amount of molybdenum.

Q:   What you are saying is that for molybdenum there is a natural buyer, people who need molybdenum to carry out their daily business. Correct?

A:   That's absolutely correct.

Q:   So in other words, if you compare molybdenum with gold, which happens to be my principal interest but still, when you compare it to gold, in gold you have speculators, you have the lunatic fringe who was always there for gold, and there are a few natural buyers, probably not more than one-third of the total. And there is a big hoarding of gold. There natural sellers and a small amount of natural buyers. Correct?

A:   That is correct.

Q:   In molybdenum there is no molybdenum hoarding. Nobody has been putting aside molybdenum for bad times and inventorying it in some isolated places.

A:   That's largely true at the present time. A "Spot Moly" fund has actually been buying physical moly and putting it aside, but they're the only exception that I know of.

Q:   It's Sprout, if I'm correct, who did it. Correct?

A:   That is right.

Q:   And do you have any idea how big it is?

A:   I don't recall precisely but it's several hundred thousand pounds of molybdenum.

Q:   And since one pound is about $30-35, 400,000 pounds is a meaningful amount of money, amount of value, but it's not going to shake the market.

A:   That's correct. Most of their investments have been in moly exploration and development companies. They just handle small inventories of moly that actually hasn't been delivered yet that they're holding aside.

Molybdenum has corrosive resistance to many acids, such as sulfuric, hydrochloric, hydrofluoric and many organic acids. Because its melting point exceeds 4700 degree F., molybdenum acts as a strengthener in the turbine blades and jet engines. It is because of these factors that higher molybdenum percentages may provide the world's first line of defense against pipeline corrosion in conjunction with the new generation of corrosion inhibitors. Molybdenum prices should remain strong for a number of years to come. Increased demand and under investment in the molybdenum sector for a lengthy period. It also costs a fortune to build a new mine, some $500 to $700 million. It's kind of a risky proposition for a commodity you can't sell forward.

Q:   Can I ask you at this stage if you can describe, as far as you see the molybdenum market, how big is it, yearly delivery, price structure. Can you say a few words to understand the company?

A:   Well, at the present time there's a shortage of molybdenum production, created primarily by China, who at one produced 24 percent of the world's moly. But now they find that their own internal consumption, they need that much moly. If you take 24 percent of the production of any commodity, you're going to end up with the rapid price rise that you've seen with aluminum, going from $2.50 a pound to $25.00 a pound. At the present time China has got export duties on moly to severely restrict any exports of moly from China. In the meantime, in the West there's no moly production coming out of mines of any significance, and that has caused the price squeeze that we presently endure.

Q:   What was the price of molybdenum four years ago?

A:   Four years ago, I believe it was about $4.50 a pound U.S.

Q:   And now it's $30-35.

A:   That is correct.

Q:   Can you tell me what's happened in the world that created this almost tenfold increase?

A:   Well, as I mentioned to you, the principal influence has been the elimination of China as a moly producer. But there are also a number of other uses of moly that have come to the fore that have to be addressed. It's used primarily in the production of steel, stainless steel in particular. And there's been an increasing amount of stainless produced in the world. Also, as I mentioned previously, it's the energy metal. It's used in the production of pipeline steel to refineries, and if occasionally you need corrosion resistance and strength you add moly to the steel. So there's been a tremendous pressure in trying to produce more moly anywhere in the Western Hemisphere.

Leading companies with "moly" content:
   •Adanac Molybdenum Corporation
   •Blue Pearl Mining
   •Idaho General Mines
   •Moly Mines
   •Phelps Dodge
   •Roca Mines, Inc.
   •Tenaris S.A.

Q:   So what you are really saying is that the energy industry at every level, pipes, refineries, corrosion-free steel, stepped in and put its incredible need into the market, whereas the normal steel industry itself has expanded, so you had a double pressure upwards of the molybdenum price.

A:   That's essentially correct.

Q:   If you have to swear in at a trial, what could be very negative for molybdenum in the balance of this decade?

A:  The only thing that could do that is increased number of mines put into production for moly. B 2010-2012, an increased moly production will be seen. But at the same time, you have increased consumption of moly, so it's a question more of balance between production and purchases of moly.

Q:   Let me concentrate for a minute on your company. You are an exploration company, correct?

A:   That is absolutely correct.

Q:   Let's say if everything works out well and you have money, when would be the first time that you could deliver from your mines?

A:   I'm looking at about four to five years before all the permitting processes would be completed on our deposit.

Q:   Four to five years of exploration and research and registration.

A:   Well, that would include exploration and engaging in the permitting process to put a mine in production.

Q:   How many shares do you have outstanding?

A:   At the moment around 71,000,000.

Q:   So 70,000,000 at U.S. price of let's say 20¢ is a $14 million market valuation, correct?

A:   That is correct.

Q: So we are in a key industry with an exploration company with a more or less normal financing, and you are trying to become a producer. In your main mine, how much molybdenum do you suspect you have?

A:   At the present time I think we have between 100 million and 150 million tons.

Q:   I want to go through this very carefully, because most people don't understand it. Let's say you have 100 million tons. How many pounds is that?

A:   It's approximately one pound per ton.

Q:   One pound per ton. So one pound is $35, 100 million is $3.5 billion. So basically your current market valuation is an infinitesimal part of the real value of the company.

A:   That is also correct.

111Salient Statistics

Share price:                     20¢ U.S.

Shares outstanding:         70M

Market cap:                      $14M

Moly assets equivalent:    100 Mt
                                         100M lb

Equivalent:

Current price:                   $35/lb

Value:               $3.5B = $3.500M

Production target:       4-5 years

Money in the company:    $3.0M

Q:   Do you expect to discover more molybdenum at the rate of valuation increase compared to market value?

A:   Yes, we do. We have defined a moly corridor that extends for about four and half kilometers. We have thus far explored only one and a half kilometers.

Q:   So in other words, a year from now this 100 million could increase to 200 million, or even 500 million tons.

A:   Easily.

Q:   You said you have 100-150 million. 150 million is not $3.5 billion but almost $50 billion. Fifty divided by 14 is three and a half times the market cap. How much money do you have in the company now?

A:   We have approximately $3 million.

Q:   Most of the mortgage companies don't have $3 million today.

A:   That's the amount of money we have in our account at the present time.

Q:   Do you have so-called strategic potentials, strategic partners who would buy into the company, provide the cash to accelerate the exploration?

A:   Well, we've been having some initial discussions with a Japanese group. I'm also aware of a Korean group that is also interested in engaging in funding exploration with the view to having to call on that in the future.

Q:   So in other words, the financial and customer interest is coming to you for future deliveries and participation in the company.

A:   That's what are interested in the present time. We have concluded any arrangements with them, but that is a simple way for us to finance our future development, by a partnership.

Q:   You are looking for future financing, they are looking for future deliveries. Has it ever occurred to you or anybody in the industry to have a joint holding company with another molybdenum company roughly at your stage of development so you represent not 100-150 million tons but maybe 250 million together. Therefore, you attract a bigger and better potential financial partner.

A:   We haven't contemplated that as yet. We're just pursuing our exploration at this time.

Q:   I got from the literature and what you have told me that the customers are mainly from the Far East and overseas, not from Canada or America. Is that correct?

A:   That's the truth. The United States is the world's largest producer of molybdenum,

Q:   Who are the largest producers?

A:   The United States in the one deposit basically. That's the Henderson mine in Colorado. And they have by-product moly from some of the copper mines.

Q:   And which company is it?

A:   I believe it's Newmont Mining.

Q:   They have plenty of money. So your company and companies in Canada are becoming related one way or another to the Far East financing and customer list.

A:   Yes, that's the direction we're taking.

Q:   Where do you see your company three or four years from now?

A:   I see us on the verge of getting a permit to go into mining three or four years from now.

Q:   Once you try to get that permit, how long does it take to get it done?

A:   Once the permitting is completed, it would probably take a year and a half to build the mine to put into production.

Q:   So two years after the first application, you can deliver.

A:   That would be our plan, two or three years. After the permitting is done, I would expect a year and a half to get it into production.

Q:   What happens if after four or five years when you deliver, the cash flows comes to the company and that can be formidable. I mean, assuming that you deliver ten million pounds, and by then the price is maybe $40, and that's $400M cash minus the production cost, which is let's say $10. That's $300 million cash a year coming into this company.

A:   That would be correct.

Q:   At that time the company will become a target even for financial as well as an operating partner. I mean, $300 million cash flow a year is a big number.

A:   I'm anticipating that there will be interest in our company long before we reach that stage.

A:   I think there is real value in the company.

APPENDIX 1 

HIGH DEMAND AND LIMITED ROASTING CAPACITY
CAUSES RECORD HIGH MOLYBDENUM PRICES

In March 2004, molybdenum prices started to rise rapidly, responding to limited world roasting capacity and growing demand for molybdenum, mainly in stainless steel. By May 2005, prices had peaked at between U.S. $40 and $50/lbMo, compared with an average price of about $4.50/lb in the ten years up to 2004. Mine production of molybdenum has historically been surplus to demand, but in 2002 and 2003 was in deficit. Mine output was again surplus to demand in 2004 and 2005, though there was a deficit in usable molybdenum products because of limited roaster capacity. The increasing prices of molybdenum substitutes, along with mine closures, compounded the problem. In late 2005, some 24 molybdenum mining or concentrator projects were under consideration, with a total capacity of about 105ktpMo. Of more importance for world molybdenum supply is the addition of new roasting capacity to provide usable product. No major new capacity that is independent of new mine supply appears likely to come on stream before 2009. Although prices in 2006 will probably be somewhat lower than in 2005, they are not expected to return to their pre-2004 levels, and will be underpinned by limited roasting capacity and firm demand, particularly in China.

The key trends, issues and developments in the market are analyzed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.

The main end-sue of molybdenum is in steel. Stainless steel accounted for an estimated 28% of worldwide molybdenum demand in 2005, followed by full alloy steel (15%), tool and high speed steel (10%), high strength low alloy steel (9%) and carbon steel (9%).

The global market for molybdenum is estimated to have grown from about 100kt in 1990 to 181kt in 2005, an average year-on-year growth rate of 4.3%. This compares with a world real GDP growth rate of 2.9% py. Chinese consumption of molybdenum doubled to around 19kt between 2001 and 2005.

Ten companies account for about two-thirds of world molybdenum mine production. Codelco from its four copper mining divisions in Chile, and Phelps Dodge from one molybdenum-only and three copper mines in the USA, are by far the biggest producers, together accounting for about a third of world mine production. Rio Tinto more than doubled molybdenum output from the Bingham Canyon mine in 2005 to become the third largest producer with almost 9% of world production. 

APPENDIX 2

UPCOMING CHINA EXPORT QUOTAS COULD SEND MOLYBDENUM TO RECORD PRICE

Our sources in Asia confirmed an industry trade report pre-announcing China would slash export quotas on molybdenum products by approximately 50 percent. The quotas are expected to take effect next week.

Many had been bracing for a 30 percent reduction in molybdenum exports. Traders are probably reeling now. Many stainless steel mills go through summer maintenance programs during this period. After Labor Day, the molybdenum price could rush past the June 2005 record price. This could result in a frenzied market through at least mid-spring 2008, as we anticipate traders to fight for depleting molybdenum inventories in the face of continued firm demand.

Next week's China announcement could provide the trigger for a spectacular un. In a March 2007 interview with Thompson Creek, executive chairman Ian McDonald, his biggest concern was China's capability of dumping a large quantity of molybdenum product into the market and driving the molybdenum price lower. It now appears that concerns of Chinese dumping are unwarranted.

In previous interviews with Adanac Molybdenum Corp., executive chairman Larry Reaugh pointed out that South American and U.S. molybdenum production is unlikely to rise, and more likely to stagnate or decline. Reaugh explained that copper producers have been mining their higher grade material to capitalize upon the firm molybdenum price. Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon in Utah has also suffered falling molybdenum production.

Molybdenum demand has remained strong despite higher pricing.

U.S. Geological Survey molybdenum expert Michael Magyar lamented in an interview in July 2006 that the industry had a long way to go before molybdenum inventories could be rebuilt.

For stainless steel manufacturers and other end users, a sustained molybdenum price spike could evolve into a nightmare before year-end and into 2008. But for investors in molybdenum producers, near-term producers, and potentially for exploration companies, this could provide the sort of double-digit returns many investors found in uranium mining and exploration companies during late 2005 into early 2007.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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"Aero Mechanical Services, Ltd"
Posted November 17, 2006

"This Year I"m Voting For Dick Nixon"
Posted November 7, 2006

"Global Options
Group, Inc."

Posted November 1, 2006

"The Arrival of the
Nickel Billionaires"

Posted October 18, 2006

"The Kennedy-Nixon debate revisited"
Posted October 4, 2006

"Brilliant Mining Corp."
Posted September 17, 2006

"A Matter of Reasonable Doubt"
Ken Lay - Enron

Posted August 30, 2006

"Silver Wheaton - SLW"
Posted August 28, 2006 

"Silver In The
Twenty-First Century"

Posted August 16, 2006

"The Age of Mediocrity"
Posted July 19, 2006

"Let There Be Sunshine"
Kirk Kerkorian

Posted July 12, 2006

"Oil & Gas
Energy Crisis Solution"

Posted July 3, 2006

"I Am An Immigrant!"
Posted June 7, 2006

"Northern Star
Mining Corp."

Posted May 19, 2006 

"Gateway Gold:
It"s A Gold Story"

Posted May 15, 2006

"Ken Lay's Legacy"
Posted May 8, 2006

"The Principal Guest Was Missing"
Posted April 25, 2006

"J.P. Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
Posted April 11, 2006

"Pocketful Of
Miracles"

Posted April 8, 2006 

"Midway Gold
Corporation
"
Posted March 23, 2006 

"Harvest Gold"
Posted March 2, 2006 
 
"Sparton Resources"
Posted March 1, 2006 

"Interview with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation
"
Posted February 22, 2006 

 
"A Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani
"
Posted February 15, 2006
 
"Your Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.

Posted February 9, 2006

"Other People"s Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
Posted January 28, 2006

"Northern Star Mining"
Posted January 16, 2006 
 
"Sonesta International Hotels Corporation"
Posted December 29, 2005 

"The Currency of Mass Destruction"
Posted December 5, 2005
 
"Bunker Hunt-Silver-China"
Posted November 28, 2005

"50 Relatives Worse Than Yours"
Posted November 14, 2005

"Then And Now"
Posted November 9, 2005 

"The Business of Hungary is Business!"
Posted October 31, 2005

"Mr. Prime Minister"
Posted October 13, 2005
 
"U.S. Gold Corp."
Posted September 29, 2005

"Orezone"
Posted September 23, 2005

"Mr Clarke -
Call In The Boys"

Posted September 12, 2005
 
"A Letter To
President Bush"

Posted September 8, 2005

"Mr. Smith Goes To Hungary"
Posted September 1, 2005
 
"Orko Gold"
Posted August 18, 2005

 "Near Hit"
Posted August 16, 2005

"An African Queen"
Posted August 11, 2005

"1848 and Beyond"
Posted August 4, 2005

 

 

Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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