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BERAL,
INC.
Andrew G. Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, New York 10022
Telephone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail:
mlikar@aol.com
September
4, 2007
LEEWARD
CAPITAL CORPORATION
(LWC - TSX.V)
Shares
outstanding: 71,000,000
Molybdenum
exploration company
Cash:
$3M
Market
value: C. $14M
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Interview
with
Jim Davis
President
Leeward Capital Corporation
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ANDREW RACZ:
For the point of view of identification, we are talking
to Mr. Jim Davis, president of Leeward Capital Corporation.
Mr. Davis, in the last few weeks almost every mining exploration
company has lost 50 percent of its value. What was the high
for your stock in June?
JIM DAVIS: I would say in June
we were around 32 cents.
Q: And currently what's the
bid price?
A: I think it's 23 cents.
Q: So in other words, you lost
50 percent of your value. What has happened in Canada that
precipitated this decline?
A: Well, you've seen a general
market decline in Canada over the summer months, the summer
doldrums, when people are not that much interested in buying
stocks or are on vacation. Holidays and everything and they
do not pay attention to the market. The big selling was
triggered by this subprime loan crisis. Investors liquidate
everything they can find in order to cover their positions
in other types of issues.
Q: So in other words, what
you are saying is that there was an asset liquidation all
around Calgary, Toronto, Vancouver, and New York City.
A: That's correct.
Q: At the same time, your principal
interest is molybdenum, correct?
A: That is correct.
Q: Molybdenum is a base metal,
correct?
A: It is a base metal. It's
often referred to as the energy metal because applications
in the industry, pipelines to refineries, are being used
as a catalyst. It's not just new and replacement pipelines,
which might create an avalanche of demand for the silvery
medal. Molybdenum's applications are wide, diverse and expanding.
The metal is used in paint pigments, lubricants, catalysts
and prosthetic legs; the radioisotope Molybdenum-99 is used
in cancer treatment. A percent molybdenum is also used in
stainless steel for higher pressure piping in ore than 30
desalination plants (sea water reverse osmosis) now operating
in ten countries. As abrupt climate change impacts fresh
water supply, a great demand for desalination plants could
emerge.
Because of the nuclear energy renaissance, condensers in
the hundreds of planned and proposed nuclear power plants
may need up to one million meters four- to six-percent molybdenum
stainless steel. The number of power plants under construction,
planned or proposed, rises weekly or monthly, and now approaches
nearly 300. Aging U.S. reactors could require replacement
over the next two decades. About 30 new reactors are in
various stages are being moved forward in the United States.
Not all will be of the size requiring a vast quantity of
molybdenum, but sufficient growth in the nuclear sector
should firm demand for the metal.
According to a recent article published by IMOA, "Molybdenum
containing alloy sales for FGD applications are booming.
"The U.S. Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) set a deadline
of 2010 for many coal-fired power plants to install FGD,
or Flue Gas Desulfurization, systems. Basically, there are
air pollution systems, which remove acid-causing sulfur
dioxide from the exhaust gases of coal-fired electrical
plants.
The nickel-based alloy C-276, which includes 16 percent
molybdenum, is a corrosive-resistant component in piping
and component upgrades in Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD)
systems. During 2006, it was estimated more than $1 billion
was spent on molybdenum bearing alloy. IMOA believes the
FGD systems could rack up $168 billion in worldwide sales
between 2006 and 2020, of which about $15 billion would
be used for moly-bearing alloys. This assumes two-thirds
of the world's coal-fired generators install the FGD systems
by 2020.
On the books, the U.S., China and India propose to build
another 800 coal-fired power plants to met energy needs
before 2020. New plants would likely require the FGD systems,
which could potentially increase the amount of molybdenum.
Q: What you are saying is that
for molybdenum there is a natural buyer, people who need
molybdenum to carry out their daily business. Correct?
A: That's absolutely correct.
Q: So in other words, if you
compare molybdenum with gold, which happens to be my principal
interest but still, when you compare it to gold, in gold
you have speculators, you have the lunatic fringe who was
always there for gold, and there are a few natural buyers,
probably not more than one-third of the total. And there
is a big hoarding of gold. There natural sellers and a small
amount of natural buyers. Correct?
A: That is correct.
Q: In molybdenum there is no
molybdenum hoarding. Nobody has been putting aside molybdenum
for bad times and inventorying it in some isolated places.
A: That's largely true at the
present time. A "Spot Moly" fund has actually
been buying physical moly and putting it aside, but they're
the only exception that I know of.
Q: It's Sprout, if I'm correct,
who did it. Correct?
A: That is right.
Q: And do you have any idea
how big it is?
A: I don't recall precisely
but it's several hundred thousand pounds of molybdenum.
Q: And since one pound is about
$30-35, 400,000 pounds is a meaningful amount of money,
amount of value, but it's not going to shake the market.
A: That's correct. Most of
their investments have been in moly exploration and development
companies. They just handle small inventories of moly that
actually hasn't been delivered yet that they're holding
aside.
Molybdenum has corrosive resistance to many acids, such
as sulfuric, hydrochloric, hydrofluoric and many organic
acids. Because its melting point exceeds 4700 degree F.,
molybdenum acts as a strengthener in the turbine blades
and jet engines. It is because of these factors that higher
molybdenum percentages may provide the world's first line
of defense against pipeline corrosion in conjunction with
the new generation of corrosion inhibitors. Molybdenum prices
should remain strong for a number of years to come. Increased
demand and under investment in the molybdenum sector for
a lengthy period. It also costs a fortune to build a new
mine, some $500 to $700 million. It's kind of a risky proposition
for a commodity you can't sell forward.
Q: Can I ask you at this stage
if you can describe, as far as you see the molybdenum market,
how big is it, yearly delivery, price structure. Can you
say a few words to understand the company?
A: Well, at the present time
there's a shortage of molybdenum production, created primarily
by China, who at one produced 24 percent of the world's
moly. But now they find that their own internal consumption,
they need that much moly. If you take 24 percent of the
production of any commodity, you're going to end up with
the rapid price rise that you've seen with aluminum, going
from $2.50 a pound to $25.00 a pound. At the present time
China has got export duties on moly to severely restrict
any exports of moly from China. In the meantime, in the
West there's no moly production coming out of mines of any
significance, and that has caused the price squeeze that
we presently endure.
Q: What was the price of molybdenum
four years ago?
A: Four years ago, I believe
it was about $4.50 a pound U.S.
Q: And now it's $30-35.
A: That is correct.
Q: Can you tell me what's happened
in the world that created this almost tenfold increase?
A: Well, as I mentioned to
you, the principal influence has been the elimination of
China as a moly producer. But there are also a number of
other uses of moly that have come to the fore that have
to be addressed. It's used primarily in the production of
steel, stainless steel in particular. And there's been an
increasing amount of stainless produced in the world. Also,
as I mentioned previously, it's the energy metal. It's used
in the production of pipeline steel to refineries, and if
occasionally you need corrosion resistance and strength
you add moly to the steel. So there's been a tremendous
pressure in trying to produce more moly anywhere in the
Western Hemisphere.
Leading companies with "moly" content:
•Adanac Molybdenum Corporation
•Blue Pearl Mining
•Idaho General Mines
•Moly Mines
•Phelps Dodge
•Roca Mines, Inc.
•Tenaris S.A.
Q:
So what you are really saying is that the energy industry
at every level, pipes, refineries, corrosion-free steel,
stepped in and put its incredible need into the market,
whereas the normal steel industry itself has expanded, so
you had a double pressure upwards of the molybdenum price.
A: That's essentially correct.
Q: If you have to swear in
at a trial, what could be very negative for molybdenum in
the balance of this decade?
A: The only thing that could do that
is increased number of mines put into production for moly.
B 2010-2012, an increased moly production will be seen.
But at the same time, you have increased consumption of
moly, so it's a question more of balance between production
and purchases of moly.
Q: Let me concentrate for a
minute on your company. You are an exploration company,
correct?
A: That is absolutely correct.
Q: Let's say if everything
works out well and you have money, when would be the first
time that you could deliver from your mines?
A: I'm looking at about four
to five years before all the permitting processes would
be completed on our deposit.
Q: Four to five years of exploration
and research and registration.
A: Well, that would include
exploration and engaging in the permitting process to put
a mine in production.
Q: How many shares do you have
outstanding?
A: At the moment around 71,000,000.
Q: So 70,000,000 at U.S. price
of let's say 20¢ is a $14 million
market valuation, correct?
A: That is correct.
Q: So we are in a key industry with an
exploration company with a more or less normal financing,
and you are trying to become a producer. In your main mine,
how much molybdenum do you suspect you have?
A: At the present time I think
we have between 100 million and 150 million tons.
Q: I want to go through this
very carefully, because most people don't understand it.
Let's say you have 100 million tons. How many pounds is
that?
A: It's approximately one pound
per ton.
Q: One pound per ton. So one
pound is $35, 100 million is $3.5 billion. So basically
your current market valuation is an infinitesimal part of
the real value of the company.
A: That is also correct.
Salient
Statistics
Moly
assets equivalent: 100
Mt
100M
lb
Production
target: 4-5
years
Money
in the company: $3.0M
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Q: Do you expect
to discover more molybdenum at the rate of valuation increase
compared to market value?
A: Yes, we do. We have defined
a moly corridor that extends for about four and half kilometers.
We have thus far explored only one and a half kilometers.
Q: So in other words, a year
from now this 100 million could increase to 200 million, or
even 500 million tons.
A: Easily.
Q: You said you have 100-150
million. 150 million is not $3.5 billion but almost $50 billion.
Fifty divided by 14 is three and a half times the market cap.
How much money do you have in the company now?
A: We have approximately $3 million.
Q: Most of the mortgage companies
don't have $3 million today.
A: That's the amount of money
we have in our account at the present time.
Q: Do you have so-called strategic
potentials, strategic partners who would buy into the company,
provide the cash to accelerate the exploration?
A: Well, we've been having some
initial discussions with a Japanese group. I'm also aware
of a Korean group that is also interested in engaging in funding
exploration with the view to having to call on that in the
future.
Q: So in other words, the financial
and customer interest is coming to you for future deliveries
and participation in the company.
A: That's what are interested
in the present time. We have concluded any arrangements with
them, but that is a simple way for us to finance our future
development, by a partnership.
Q: You are looking for future
financing, they are looking for future deliveries. Has it
ever occurred to you or anybody in the industry to have a
joint holding company with another molybdenum company roughly
at your stage of development so you represent not 100-150
million tons but maybe 250 million together. Therefore, you
attract a bigger and better potential financial partner.
A: We haven't contemplated that
as yet. We're just pursuing our exploration at this time.
Q: I got from the literature
and what you have told me that the customers are mainly from
the Far East and overseas, not from Canada or America. Is
that correct?
A: That's the truth. The United
States is the world's largest producer of molybdenum,
Q: Who are the largest producers?
A: The United States in the one
deposit basically. That's the Henderson mine in Colorado.
And they have by-product moly from some of the copper mines.
Q: And which company is it?
A: I believe it's Newmont Mining.
Q: They have plenty of money.
So your company and companies in Canada are becoming related
one way or another to the Far East financing and customer
list.
A: Yes, that's the direction
we're taking.
Q: Where do you see your company
three or four years from now?
A: I see us on the verge of getting
a permit to go into mining three or four years from now.
Q: Once you try to get that permit,
how long does it take to get it done?
A: Once the permitting is completed,
it would probably take a year and a half to build the mine
to put into production.
Q: So two years after the first
application, you can deliver.
A: That would be our plan, two
or three years. After the permitting is done, I would expect
a year and a half to get it into production.
Q: What happens if after four
or five years when you deliver, the cash flows comes to the
company and that can be formidable. I mean, assuming that
you deliver ten million pounds, and by then the price is maybe
$40, and that's $400M cash minus the production cost, which
is let's say $10. That's $300 million cash a year coming into
this company.
A: That would be correct.
Q: At that time the company will
become a target even for financial as well as an operating
partner. I mean, $300 million cash flow a year is a big number.
A: I'm anticipating that there
will be interest in our company long before we reach that
stage.
A: I think there is real value
in the company.
APPENDIX 1
HIGH DEMAND AND LIMITED
ROASTING CAPACITY
CAUSES RECORD HIGH MOLYBDENUM PRICES
In March 2004, molybdenum prices started
to rise rapidly, responding to limited world roasting capacity
and growing demand for molybdenum, mainly in stainless steel.
By May 2005, prices had peaked at between U.S. $40 and $50/lbMo,
compared with an average price of about $4.50/lb in the
ten years up to 2004. Mine production of molybdenum has
historically been surplus to demand, but in 2002 and 2003
was in deficit. Mine output was again surplus to demand
in 2004 and 2005, though there was a deficit in usable molybdenum
products because of limited roaster capacity. The increasing
prices of molybdenum substitutes, along with mine closures,
compounded the problem. In late 2005, some 24 molybdenum
mining or concentrator projects were under consideration,
with a total capacity of about 105ktpMo. Of more importance
for world molybdenum supply is the addition of new roasting
capacity to provide usable product. No major new capacity
that is independent of new mine supply appears likely to
come on stream before 2009. Although prices in 2006 will
probably be somewhat lower than in 2005, they are not expected
to return to their pre-2004 levels, and will be underpinned
by limited roasting capacity and firm demand, particularly
in China.
The key trends, issues and developments in the market are
analyzed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides
a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an
authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
The main end-sue of molybdenum is in steel. Stainless steel
accounted for an estimated 28% of worldwide molybdenum demand
in 2005, followed by full alloy steel (15%), tool and high
speed steel (10%), high strength low alloy steel (9%) and
carbon steel (9%).
The global market for molybdenum is estimated to have grown
from about 100kt in 1990 to 181kt in 2005, an average year-on-year
growth rate of 4.3%. This compares with a world real GDP
growth rate of 2.9% py. Chinese consumption of molybdenum
doubled to around 19kt between 2001 and 2005.
Ten companies account for about two-thirds of world molybdenum
mine production. Codelco from its four copper mining divisions
in Chile, and Phelps Dodge from one molybdenum-only and
three copper mines in the USA, are by far the biggest producers,
together accounting for about a third of world mine production.
Rio Tinto more than doubled molybdenum output from the Bingham
Canyon mine in 2005 to become the third largest producer
with almost 9% of world production.
APPENDIX 2
UPCOMING CHINA EXPORT
QUOTAS COULD SEND MOLYBDENUM TO RECORD PRICE
Our sources in Asia confirmed an industry
trade report pre-announcing China would slash export quotas
on molybdenum products by approximately 50 percent. The quotas
are expected to take effect next week.
Many had been bracing for a 30 percent reduction in molybdenum
exports. Traders are probably reeling now. Many stainless
steel mills go through summer maintenance programs during
this period. After Labor Day, the molybdenum price could rush
past the June 2005 record price. This could result in a frenzied
market through at least mid-spring 2008, as we anticipate
traders to fight for depleting molybdenum inventories in the
face of continued firm demand.
Next week's China announcement could provide the trigger for
a spectacular un. In a March 2007 interview with Thompson
Creek, executive chairman Ian McDonald, his biggest concern
was China's capability of dumping a large quantity of molybdenum
product into the market and driving the molybdenum price lower.
It now appears that concerns of Chinese dumping are unwarranted.
In previous interviews with Adanac Molybdenum Corp., executive
chairman Larry Reaugh pointed out that South American and
U.S. molybdenum production is unlikely to rise, and more likely
to stagnate or decline. Reaugh explained that copper producers
have been mining their higher grade material to capitalize
upon the firm molybdenum price. Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon
in Utah has also suffered falling molybdenum production.
Molybdenum demand has remained strong despite higher pricing.
U.S. Geological Survey molybdenum expert Michael Magyar lamented
in an interview in July 2006 that the industry had a long
way to go before molybdenum inventories could be rebuilt.
For stainless steel manufacturers and other end users, a sustained
molybdenum price spike could evolve into a nightmare before
year-end and into 2008. But for investors in molybdenum producers,
near-term producers, and potentially for exploration companies,
this could provide the sort of double-digit returns many investors
found in uranium mining and exploration companies during late
2005 into early 2007.
Andrew Racz

(Article
61 - posted September 4, 2007)
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contained herein is based on data obtained from
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only current opinions which are subject to change.
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