Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944

Lynas Corporation, Ltd.

March 19, 2010

Price: 51¢ (A)
52-week price range:
81¢ - 35¢
Shares issued: 1,655,000,000
Options: 61,000,000
(Range: 16¢ - $1.05)
Cash: A 420,000,000

Global leader in Rare Earth international claims.

KBFO Rare Earth Index

Company Ticker
Alkane Resources
Arafure Resources ARU-A
Avalon Rare Metals AVL-T
Great Western Minerals Group GWG-V
Greenland Minerals & Energy GGG-A
Hudson Resources HUD-V
Lynas Corp. LYC-A
Matamec Explorations MAT-V
Neo Material Technologies NEM-T
Quest Uranium QUC-V
Rare Earth Metals RA-V
Rare Element Resources RES-V
Stana Energy RUU-V
Tasmen Metals TSM-V
Ucore Uranium UCU-V

Some Toronto-listed rare earth juniors



 Price ($) (Feb. 1)

52-week ($)

2009 (%)


Avalon Rare Metals






Great Western Minerals Group






Hudson Resources






Matamec Explorations






Quest Uranium






Rare Element Resources






Rare Earth Metals






Stans Energy






Tasman Metals






Ucore Uranium







Rare Earth Oxide Prices
Light / Heavy
Price (US$/kg)

This is an interview with Dr. Matthew James,
Executive Vice President of Lynas Corporation, which is perhaps the world's largest rare element developing company.
It's a field which is full of mystery.

Q:  In simple language, what does your company and your industry do?

MATTHEW JAMES:  The rare earth industry is a small industry, but it provides materials and metals which underpin three societal trends today.

Energy Efficiency through lower consumption -  Compact fluorescent lights
-  Hybrid vehicle
-  Weight reduction in cars
Environmental Protection through lower emissions -  Wind turbine
-  Auto catalytic converter
-  Diesel additives
Smaller yet more powerful digital technology -  Flat panel displays
-  Disk drives
-  Digital cameras

They go into many applications which improve energy efficiency from a compact electric car to the hybrid vehicle. Those applications do not work without rare earth.

They also improve environmental applications such as heavy automotive catalytic converters which cleans the automotive gases. The new generation wind turbines use rare earths.

The third application is they are in many electronic and digital technologies and applications. They enable miniaturization. The world is dependent on rare earths. We're addicted to rare earths. We use the applications that contain rare earths every day and you just don't know it. Lynas Corporation is a company which has a rare earth mined in western Australia, and we can develop that mine and we are currently building two plants, one a concentration plant in Australia next to the mine, and the other a processing plant on the east coast of Malaysia. We will produce up to 22,000 tons of different rare earth materials, and we will sell those to global chemical manufacturers, and to sell in the automotive and electronic industries.

Q:  I understand the total production a year is 120,000 tons.

A:  That's correct.

Q:  Let me simplify. What I understand is that you mentioned the main application, that with this current application there is already a shortage in the world.


2010 Demand Forecast by Application

Ceramics 1%
Other 3%
Magnets 24%
Battery Alloy 12%
Metallurgy ex battery 9%
Auto Cat 7%
FCC 16%
Polishing powder 15%
Glass additive 8%
Phosphors 6%
2010 Demand Forecast by Region
USA 11,000 tons - 8%
China 72,000 tons - 54%
Japan 32,000 tons - 24%
Asia, other 5,000 tons - 4%
Europe 13,000 tons - 10%

Growth Forecast by Application
Growth rate
% p.a.
2014 demand (tons)
Battery Alloy
Metallurgy ex batt
Auto catalysts
Polishing powder
Glass additives

A: That's correct.

Q: However, the way you describe the applications like hybrid cars, cell phones, wind turbines, five years from now it could be a ten times bigger business than it is today. So in other words, your company is heading towards a world where there will be a shortage in 2010-2011. If I were an engineer I would say, well, fellows, this is a joke, five years from now you will have so many electric cars, you will have so many electronic gadgets and the demand would be so much bigger that your 120,000 tons is history.





Price increase













A:  I think the industry understands that the forecasts in rare earth demand is in the double digits per annum.

Q:  Tell me about the price structure.

A:  Today the Chinese dominate supply. They are setting the price of rare earth. The potential for a particular rare earth to increase in price dramatically is there. You must have these rare earths. Otherwise the applications don't work.

Q:  So if the market in five years time is quadrupled and you have 120,000 tons today, and you said that the rare earths are absolutely essential, it is like a checkmate. The rare earth companies are checkmating the world. A 185,000 ton demand in 2015 would make 1 100-200% increase in price.

A:  In a way. The applications which are increasing tenfold, for example, today maybe only account for 10 percent of the rare earths market. So our forecast in five years' time is for demand to be approximately 200,000 tons of rare earths. But in these elements there are examples already where the price of a particular rare earth, neodymium, for example, has increased fivefold in a matter or six or seven months. This could happen going forward. So today neodymium is $25 a kilo. In times of extreme shortage, it doesn't matter whether that element is $100 a kilo. The application of a $2 million wind turbine generator, the price has no effect on the economics of that application. Same with hybrid vehicles. It might only contain two kilos of neodymium magnets. If the manufacturer has to pay $100 a kilo for the magnets, they have to pay $100 a kilo rather than $20 a kilo, because the hybrid vehicle is a $30,000 vehicle.

As supply tightened in '08 prices increased, in '09 demand dipped,
prices are now recovering
Demand creates price increases.
If higher price world creates more production, it leads to acquisition.
If not, a "price jump" can occur.

Q:  So your business is called a broker's delight.

A:  Yes. It's a perfect storm from a supply aspect.

Q:  You have, if I am correct, 1.6 billion shares.

A:  Correct.

Q:  And it's selling at $.50.

A:  Correct.

Q:  My question is who owns these shares?

A:  About 70 percent of our register is institutional investors. Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan have substantial shareholding positions, about 5 percent in Australia. Those are the only people who are known [in the register]. But we have a largely European and U.S. institutional holders in the register. About 30 percent of it is called private individual.

Q:  How does management fit into this?

A:  Management in total has about 4 percent, with our executive chairman having the majority interest. Other members of management holding only a few percentages.

Q:  So 4 percent of 1.6 billion is 60 million shares, at $.50. If your stock goes up to $5.00, it will be $300 million. You obviously talk to some of your colleagues in the business. The numbers you project are the same as theirs. I had done a report on Peter Cashin. He has a company in Toronto. But his market cap is small, $150 million. He's rich but not in your class. There is a small cap company, $70 million, Great Western Resources. You know them?

A:  Yes.

Q:  They have good properties?

A:  They have an interesting property in South Africa. I think the South African resource is the highest producing asset they have. Great Western, who had an auction on their assets, are listed in Canada.

Q:  I know, 22¢. It didn't go up the last week. Thirty or forty years ago, there was a development in America called Silicon Valley. Lots of people became millionaires. The sky was the limit. Do you think that there will be a Rare Earth Valley internationally, all the companies working together or supporting one another, joint projects, and creating a mining community which, in fact, the way you describe it will have the world in its hand.

A:  I think that there is certainly a desire to create a supply system which is separate from the Chinese supply system for rare earth. We have 95 percent of the world's rare earths coming out of China. Even the U.S. government is looking at strategic supply and there will be one or two major suppliers who have first-move advantage.

Q:  Who are they?

A:  We see ourselves, Lynas, and potentially a group called Molycorp.

Q:  That's Goldman Sachs.

A:  That's a Goldman Sachs company. Those two we see as getting into the market, dominating the market. Our business model is then to say smaller companies find good rare earth assets, and then our model is that they come to us and we help them develop and process together and create a consortium.

Mineral scarcity -- it is not about size of resource, it is about
production in a specific timeframe
  • Shortages occur when supply as a function of time can no longer keep up with demand as a function of time.
  • The ultimate recoverable resource in the ground is irrelevant in this respect.
  • We have reached this point in the Rare Earths industry.
    — Current resources are struggling to maintain production.
    — Growth forecasts are greater than new supply coming to market.
  • Mineral scarcity is expected to be an aspect of this industry for at least the next five to ten years.
    — There are insufficient well-advanced new projects in the pipeline.
         Lynas - Mount Weld 
         Molycorp - Mountain Pass
  • There is significant first mover advantage to be gained by those companies able to supply

Q:  Just a little bit about price for the industry overall.

A:  The prices for different elements, and there are about eight different rare earth elements, the price depends on the supply and demand of each particular element. For our basket of rare earths, currently our average price is $13.50 per kilo. In the first half of 2009, when demand in the world was down and the world was not buying, the price got to $9.50.

Q:  This year, 2010, what would be the industry delivery in tonnage or kilos and price?

A:  We expect in 2010, for the world market to be about 135,000 tons of rare earth, with an average price of at least $15.00-16.00 this year. So you're talking about a market of about $2 billion in total.

Q:  And it represents profit outside China, or not yet?

A:  Yes. Those prices will be very sustainable for our operation. Our cost of production is $5.65, so we're looking at about a $10.00 margin on 22,000 tons. That's $220 U.S.

Q:  And let's say two years later.

A:  Two years later, the question is how high can the price go? We're always careful about predicting prices, but it could easily be in the $20 region for our average price. So that would be 150,000 tons in two years' time.

Q:  And at $20 kilo, that's $3.5 billion. Still a very small industry.

A:  Yes.

Q:  Now, you got the biggest monetary contribution of all the companies from JP Morgan.

A:  JP Morgan underwrote our recent capital raising. We raised $450 million. And JP Morgan underwrote all that 100 percent. So they subsequently sold that to different institutions. But JP Morgan is one of our biggest shareholders.

Q:  And the $450 million would carry you to production?

A:  Correct.

Q:  So in other words, you use up this money but if you take 2012, you would have let's say maybe 30,000 tons of production.

A:  In 2012, we'll just be finishing the expansion of our plant for 22,000 tons. So it will only be after 2012 that we'll be looking to increase beyond that. But by 2014, certainly we could be above 22,000 tons.

Q:  And that would be 22,000 at $30, almost $700 million.

A:  If you're at $30 a kilo, that's correct.

Q:  At the end of the decade, we can look for a $6-7-8 billion industry.

A:  At the end of this decade, yes, easily.

Q:  And much higher prices, big cash flow, and you probably will support the emergence of new industries.

A:  Yes. I believe that's very true. I think today because of the tight supply of rare earths, there are many applications which are not being developed because the engineers are concerned about the security of supply. Something that Lynas is doing is guaranteeing that security of supply because they're outside of China. And we expect the growth of the industry security of supply because they're outside of China. And we expect the growth of the industry to benefit from that.

Q:  So in other words, what you're describing is that through various strategic moves in mining, engineering, contracts, there can be a new industry with a limited number of participants, prices rising, double, treble current prices. But the interesting part is twofold. One, that you put hybrid electric cars on the map, and windmills, which have been a research idea for thirty or forty years, you also put on the map. And as a reward, you being the largest with a capitalization of $800 million, in ten years' time you will be in the forefront of creating new industries, supplying industries, having a tremendous cash flow, and there will be two, three, four, five electronic applications, which is comparable to the growth of Apple Computers in your industry.

Lastly, there will be a lot of articles about your business, because they all represent what not only the investment industry wants to read, but the public wants to read. So this is going to be an industry where there will be ample publicity.

Hybrid: 100 years after the Model-T.

Hybrid vehicles could revolutionize the automobile industry. 

Hybrid is in the 21st century
the Model-T 100 years ago.

Hybrid vehicle technology is dependant
upon Rare Earths

Hybrid electronic motor and generator

  • Neodymium
  • Praseodymium
  • Dysprosium
  • Terbium

Hybrid NiMH battery

  • Lanthanum
  • Neodymium
  • Cerium
Enabling better emission standards and lower energy consumption.


Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.



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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail:

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.