"1848 and
Beyond"
posted
August 4, 2005
"An
African Queen"
posted August 11, 2005
"Near Hit"
posted August 16, 2005
"Orko
Gold"
posted August 18, 2005
"Mr.
Smith Goes To Hungary"
posted September 1, 2005
"A
Letter To
President Bush"
posted September 8, 2005
"Mr
Clarke -
Call In The Boys"
posted September 12, 2005
"Orezone"
posted September 23, 2005
"U.S
Gold Corp."
posted September 29, 2005
"Mr.
Prime Minister"
posted October 13, 2005
"The
Business of Hungary is Business!"
posted October 31, 2005
"Then
And Now"
posted November 9, 2005
"50
Relatives Worse Than Yours"
posted November 14, 2005
"Bunker
Hunt-Silver-China"
posted November 28, 2005
"The
Currency of Mass Destruction"
posted December 5, 2005
"Sonesta
International Hotels Corporation"
posted December 29, 2005
"Northern
Star Mining"
posted January 16, 2006
"Other
People's Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
posted January 28, 2006
"Your
Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.
posted February 9, 2006
"A
Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani"
posted February 15, 2006
"Interview
with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation"
posted February 22, 2006
"Sparton
Resources"
posted March 1, 2006
"Harvest
Gold"
posted March 2, 2006
|
|
BERAL,
INC.
Andrew G. Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, 26C
New York, New York 10022
Telephone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
THE
MIDWAY GOLD CORPORATION |
(MDW
- T) |
The
Junior Gold Boom of the 21st Century |
| |
MDW
|
C.
$2.05 |
+ |
U.S.
$1.80 |
TSX
Venture Exchange |
|
Shares
outstanding: |
32,000,000 |
Market
Cap: |
C.
$64M
U.S. $57m |
|
THE MIDWAY GOLD CORPORATION
|
Midway is basically an exploration company. If anything,
the company is involved in two advanced and one early-stage
exploration project in Nevada, looking for high-grade gold
and silver resources. They are, namely, the Midway Project
and the Spring Valley Project.
Basically speaking there are two kinds of gold stocks. One
is an established man like Barrick and Newmont Mining and
the others, the junior gold stocks. The junior gold stocks
so far serve as speculative vehicles but never received particular
investment attention. Certainly, they very rarely received
respect.
At the end of 2004, I would say that the junior gold mines
in the North ameircan continent can claim what candidate Ronald
Reagan claimed when some international agreement was reflected
back in the United States. Reagan in shirtsleeves hit the
table."We do not want to be notified. Hell, no, we want
to be respected."
The purpose of this article is such a statement. For the first
time in history, in the year 2004, or rather the last quarter
of 2004, the junior gold mines may state, "Hell no, we
want to be respected." And respected they might be. Take
a typical junior gold stock. It is valued on the current asset
base of the mine and the current price of gold. If there is
no noticable movement of gold, the junior stock after a speculative
run-up usually increases.
Let us now break the valuation into four parts. We have a
junior gold mine. It has an estimated gold reserve and the
price of gold. This is the current value which we call "A".
Let's assume that the price of gold now goes from $420 to
$480. The valuation changes immediately. We have a number
now for the price of the mining stock, called "B".
Assuming that the company has contact with junior underwriters,
with the higher gold price and the higher price of the stock,
the company can raise some money or even more money. Callit
price "C".
If the management is astute enough to buy additional reserves
or revalue its reserves at a higher gold price, with the additional
capital, we now have price "D".
The interesting thing is that "B" is more than "A".
"C" is more than "B" and "D"
is more than "C". The process itself permits a junior
gold mine in the cycle to have more reserves, higher gold
price, higher valuation and more cash.
The company has 32 million shares fully diluted outstanding.
At $2.00 a share Canadian, it is $64 million Canadian market
cap and about $55 million U.S.
In order to analyze any current and future interest in Midway,
we have to put the company into a historical perspective.
Exploration companies are only popular if, and we use an old-fashioned
statement, they are in the right place at the right time under
the right circumstances. Let me come to the practical evaluation
of Midway with hypothetical numbers.
- Let us assume that Midway suspects that they are in
touch with approximately
a million ounces of gold in the various places of search.
- The traditional valuation of underground gold is about
$50 per ounce, or $50 million.
- The value has inherent leverage if we expect the price
of gold to go up. For instance,
if the price of gold goes from $550 to $700, the valuation
ratio will go from
$50 to $60 and we are talking of a $60 million market
valuation.
- If the price of gold goes up and expect it to go up
and stay up, we have a potential
of expanding the exploration, and instead of a million
maybe we would be talking
about 1.2 million ounces of gold.
- Because of the growing interest in a mineral which
goes in abstract terms and
valuation terms, there is always a possibility that a
larger company would purchase,
let's say, 40% of the total project, not at the valuation
price of $60 per ounce
but maybe $100 an ounce.
Adding this hypothetical table together an interesting conclusions
arises, which we reproduce in the following table.
The Confidence Factor
As we have compiled, Midway started basically with very little
money and very little support. As the company gets bigger,
in the year 2004-05-06, a number of finances have been completed.
This is an extremely important factor in assessing the future
of a company. A series of private placements actually is a
vote of confidence for the company. A company like Midway
moves among what?s called the gold people, people who have
knowledge, interest, information in their selected area, which
is Nevada, and by providing the capital and seeing the price
of the stock going higher is like an interpretation of current
and future success.
A list of finances is illustrated in Table 1.
The Historical Background for Major Exploration
Success
Like any other industry, the success of a series of projects
is not a coincidence but usually backed by historical factors.
If we want to talk about gold, the first major discovery was
in South Africa at the end of the 19th century. In fact, Winston
Churchill in his book My Early Life mentioned that his father
and mother were not rich people, and only at the end of their
lives acquired a portfolio of South African gold mining shares
which helped the family through difficult times. For over
a hundred years, South Africa has been an important country
for deep mined gold, and it occupies today a vital place in
gold and mineral history. To some extent, no other gold depository
assets have stayed popular for over a hundred years, which
is now culminating in bringing the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
public.
Gold was discovered in Australia some fifty years ago. The
South American gold discoveries have actually grown in the
last 25 years. The largest gold discoveries in the United
States and the North American continent were the Nevada discoveries,
and companies like Newmont and Barrick have made billions
of dollars. A short description of these two companies is
in Table 2.
Recently, around September, 2005, a maverick gold executive,
Robert McEwen, after making a big success of his former company,
Gold Corp, which he built up from a $15 million market cap
to $7 billion, suddenly resigned his position and started
a new company called U.S. Gold, with the desire to acquire
an impressive large territory in Nevada, putting his belief
that deep mining in those territories could bring about a
major change in his company's history.
After six months in business, the statistical description
of U.S. Gold and its holdings, in terms of acquisitions, appears
in Table 4.
Since Mr. McEwen could bring a buying power of maybe a billion
dollars to his current company, which already has a market
cap of $600 million, and because of his demonstrated engineering
and financial acumen, he may make Nevada into a Monte Carlo.
There are a number of independent companies such as Midway,
whose market cap is $64 million, about one tenth of U.S. Gold
Corp.'s market cap, and whose technical expertise in selecting
territories is undeniable and are basically saying "I,
too, have a chance."
Description of Midway in terms of projects and
expectations
Historical Comparison
Mineral discoveries in the world, whether oil, gold, copper
or nickel, do not happen in isolation. Major discoveries usually
create a whole series of companies that benefit from the trend.
In recent history, let me quote a number of examples.
U.S. Gold looks to consoldate Cortez Trend
Aims
To Swallow Four Juniors in All-Share Deals Worth
$290M
by Stephen Starkiw
Vancouver-
Robert McEwen's U.S. Gold (USGL-O)
has launched takeovers offers for four TSX Ventute-listed
companies in an anticipated manoeuvre to fuse
together a large, strategic land position around
its Tonkin Springs project in Nevada's Cortez
Trend.
U.S. Gold is looking to acquire White
Knight Resources (WKR-V, WITNF-O)
Nevada Pacific Gold (NPG-V,
NVPGF-O), Coral Gold Resourses
(CGR-V, CGREF-O)
and Tone Resources (TNS-V,
TONRF-O) in an all-share transaction worth a
combined $280 Million (based on March 3 closing
prices).
|
|
Summary
of 2004 Production
|
| Gold |
6,942,000 |
|
ounces
* |
| Silver |
10,398,000 |
|
ounces
* |
| Barite
(shipped) |
559,000 |
|
tons |
| Copper
|
26,900,000 |
|
pounds |
| Diatomite |
** |
|
|
| Dolomite |
** |
|
|
| Gypsum |
2,310,000 |
|
tons |
| Limestone |
** |
|
|
| Lithium
carbonate |
** |
|
|
| Magnesium |
** |
|
|
| Mercury |
no
report |
|
|
| Perlite |
** |
|
|
| Precious
opal |
** |
|
|
| Saly |
14,000 |
|
tons |
| Silica
sand |
750,000 |
|
tons |
| Specialty
clay |
35,000 |
|
tons |
_____________________________________________________________________________ |
*Includes
production from smaller mines not listed in this
report.
|
**Proprietary
information. |
|
1. The post-war discovery of Saudi Arabian,
Kuwaiti, Middle East oil, which actually changed
the military equation of the world.
2. The Alaska oil in 1970-71 created great
excitement, but because of political factors, so far
it has turned out to be a minor event.
3. Copper discoveries in Chile for the
last forty years created wealth and potential political
pressure in South America.
4. The Russian oil fields created enormous
wealth for a handful of companies and transformed
the entire financial picture of the former Soviet Union,
particularly Russia.
5. The discovered of Diamondfield nickel
in Newfoundland, while creating great excitement,
turned out to be a non-important factor in the world of
nickel.
6. Gold discovery in Nevada contributed
a large increase in the world's gold production and,
as such, they are starting to play and will play an important
role in the monetary assets
of industrialized and emerging countries in the years to
come.
All in all, we live in a decade or perhaps a century of commodities.
Any mineral discovery which is being sought after by the financial
community is gong to play an important part in the field of
monetary values.
The Nevada gold really started with the Carlin Trend, which
is owned by Newmont. It started in 1965 with a reserve of
$3.5 billion and reached $12 billion in 1998. In the interim,
Newmont has mined 26 million ounces, representing a revenue
total of $8 billion.
The Nevada story basically didn't grow rapidly between 1965
and 1981. This was partially due to the low price of gold
and the lack of concentration of production. Production really
started in 1982. See Table 5. It's interesting to reproduce
the cumulative gold production between
1965 and 2001.
The Growth Years in Nevada
Midway is basically a candidate to benefit from the exploitation
of gold production in the Carlin Trend, which represents the
main territories for Nevada gold. After 1982, a dramatic rise
in reserves began with the discovery of various deposits.
The Nevada and Gold and Silver Production
In evaluating an exploration company such as Midway, we cannot
really make any progress unless we look at the entire circumstances
which govern the operation. Midway states that the so-called
Midway Project has six gold deposits. Inferred Resources estimates
further gold zones. In addition, eleven targets have been
identified. The Spring Valley Project is an advanced-stage
exploration project. It has encountered gold already. The
best deal to date encountered 215 feet of .137 ounces per
ton of gold. Drilling in late 2004 identified two new gold
zones.
Midway is interesting when we look at the entire background
within which the company operates, and the economic and political
implications of the territory, as well as the value of its
gold and silver reserves, in contrast to the total reserves
of Nevada itself. The production figures are available for
the year 2004, as illustrated in Table 6.
The figures are impressive because our valuation of 7 million
ounces of gold at $600, and 10 million ounces of silver at
$10, creates a total revenue base of $4.5 billion.
The production highlights indicate that the 7 million ounces
of gold make Nevada the third largest producer of gold in
the world, behind South Africa and Australia.
The first macro economic factor which we must clearly state
is that if the price of gold and silver go up, and in the
year 2006 silver is already hitting $10? per ounce compared
to $7 about six months ago, the exploration will increase
and the production will increase, and of course the profit
will increase. We have indicated at the beginning of this
report that an exploration company has reserves whose value
dramatically increases with the price of the commodity. For
any company such as Midway, the skillful utilization of a
stock and potential mineral production attracts capital, thereby
increasing the potential of the company.
Frankly, we believe that in the next two or three years, companies
like Midway not only will sell part of their equity to other
larger companies, but pre-sell its reserves to other parties
without disturbing the capital structure. Vital in any area,
such as in Nevada, are the actual reported reserve figures.
In the last two years, the gold reserves in Nevada have increased
to 8.3 million troy ounces, compared to 66 million a year
before.
If any mineral or mining company can increase their reserves
every year after actual production, it is a sign of greater
longevity of the mine and therefore increases the value of
the common stock of the company they represent. Needless to
say, the higher the commodity price silver and gold pose,
the more reserves the company can add and have a higher net
reserve number, which of course commands a higher stock price.
Midway is a new company. It is in the heart of Nevada and
after the initial confirmation of reserves, say a million
ounces, it will participate in the growth of Nevada in gold
and silver, or maybe copper, along the thesis I have outlined.
Market Conditions
Nevada in the year 2006 will go through some unusual changes.
Apart from the major companies like Newmont and Barrick, the
entree of U.S. Gold will bring about a challenge that the
state has not experienced before. The philosophy of U.S. Gold
is that more major fields could be found in Nevada other than
what Newmont, Placer Dome and Barrick have found. Furthermore,
this gold will be found mainly by deep drilling. U.S. Gold,
of course, has access to capital of maybe a billion dollars.
It allocated $30M to drilling for the spring season of 2006.
If Robert McEwen, the chairman, is right and gold is discovered
in the drilling between April, May, June and July, it would
create a speculative fever not experienced in Nevada before.
U.S. Gold may have money, or access to money, but it is a
small company. When it started it had 30 million shares outstanding,
and today it has 95 million shares and covers a territory
almost as big as any of the majors in their heydays. Meanwhile,
the capital structure of the four companies we have been talking
about, namely Midway, U.S. Gold, Newmont and Barrick, are
strikingly dissimilar.
See Table 12.
If U.S. Gold is successful in its drilling program, it could
set up a Nevada Scarlet Fever like Diamondfield created in
Vancouver and Newfoundland in 1994 to 1997. This being the
case, promising and successful exploration companies such
as Midway could have a sharp increase in the price, maybe
even threefold its current price, which would enable it to
further financing in favorable conditions and expand its operating
base and transform itself into a different company.
This scenario is hypothetical but cannot be ruled out.
Conclusion
If we want to evaluate Midway, one can look at immediate possible
reserves of let's say a million ounces, and with 20 million
shares outstanding, we can come up with a ratio as illustrated
in Table 10. If, however, in two years the confirmed figures
increase to 1.5 million ounces, equivalent both in gold, and
the price of gold goes to $700, the ratio based on the current
capitalization changes meaningfully. See Table 11.
Where management skill is tested is finding the right areas,
finding the right reserves, and then utilizing the stock market
and personal contacts to leverage by selling either reserves
or stocks so that the changing circumstances would create
a modified company, capitalizing on the current possibilities,
but also include in its price at some stage the forecasted
values which we can hope with a certain amount of constructive
expectation.
Midway Closes $595,000
Private Placement
Midway Gold Corp. is pleased to confirm that
it has closed its private placement of 700,000
units at a price of $0.85 per unit. Each unit
is comprised of one common share and one non-transferable
share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles
the holder to purchase one additional common
share at a price of $1.00 per share for a period
of twelve months.
The company received total proceeds of $595,000.
|
Table 1/a
|
Midway Closes $765,000
Private Placement
Midway Gold Corp. is pleased to confirm that
it has closed its private placement of 1,020,000
units at a price of $0.75 per unit. Each unit
is comprised of one common share and one non-transferable
share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles
the holder to purchase one additional common
share at a price of $.80 per share for a period
of twelve months. The company received total
proceeds of $765,000.
|
Table 1/b |
Midway Closes Private
Placement and
Mobilizes Additional Drills
Midway Gold Corp. is pleased to confirm
that it has closed its previously announced
non-brokered private placement of one million
units at a price of $1.15 per unit, for proceeds
of $1,150,000. Each unit is comprised of one
common share and one-half non-transferable common
share purchase warrant of the company. Each
whole warrant will entitle the holder to acquire
one additional common share at a price of $1.15
per share until July 27, 2006. The proceeds
of the private placement will be used to fund
ongoing exploration expenses on the Spring Valley
Property and for working capital.
|
Table 1/c |
|
No.
of shares
(000,0000)
|
Price
$
|
Market
Cap
($ MIL)
|
| Barrick |
538 |
26 |
14,000 |
| Newmont
Mining |
417 |
49 |
20,433 |
| U.S.
Gold |
95 |
6.50 |
600M |
| Midway
Gold |
32 |
1.80 |
57.6 |
Table 3 |
Midway Closes $595,000
Private Placement
Midway Gold Corp. is pleased to confirm
that it has closed a non-brokered private placement
of 2.5 million units at a price of $0.85 per
unit, for proceeds of $2,125,600. Each unit
is comprised of one common share purchase warrant
of the company. The units will be subject to
a four-month hold period. Each warrant will
entitle the holder to acquire one additional
common share at a price of $1.00 per share for
a period of twelve months from the date of issuance.
The proceeds of the private placement will be
used to fund exploration expenses on the Spring
Valley Property and for working capital.
|
Table 3/c |
Midway Closes $700,000
Private Placement
Midway Gold Corp. is pleased to confirm
that it has closed a private placement of 500,000
units at a price of $1.40 per unit. Each unit
is comprised of one common share and one non-transferable
share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant entitles
the holder to purchase one additional common
share at a price of $1.45 per share for a period
of twelve months, expiring August 23, 2006.
The company received total proceeds of $700,000.
The shares, and any shares acquired upon the
exercise of the warrants, will be subject to
a four-month hold period, expiring December
23, 2005. The company also confirms that all
of the 1,000,000 warrants issued in August,
2004 have been exercised, at a price of $0.80/share,
for proceeds to the company of $800,000.The
funds raised by this placement and exercise
of warrants will help fund the drilling currently
in progress at the Spring Valley and Midway
projects in Nevada. Two reverse circulation
and one core rig are currently exploring the
Pond, Sill, and Porphyry gold zones at the Spring
Valley project. Step-outs drill holes more than
500m (1700 feet) from the known gold zones are
testing new targets on the west side of the
Spring Valley diatreme. The first hole has encountered
strongly quartz-tourmaline altered tuff and
brecciated rhyolite, near the west edge of the
diatreme. One reverse circulation drill is testing
extensions of the resources and exploring new
targets at the Midway project. This funding
will allow Midway to aggressively explore these
two high-grade gold properties in Nevada.
|
Table 4/b |
Inferred
Projection
|
| Shares
outstanding |
32M |
Price:
$2 |
| Gold
reserve |
1.5
x 1 |
0.47 |
Price
|
$700/$600 |
.55 |
| Inferred
stock price; |
$3.00+ |
|
Even the 50% price increase, creating a market
cap of C. $90M, does not include a possible $10M
financing. Midway could be a candidate for a new
corporate listing.
|
Table 11 |
| Information
contained herein is based on data obtained from
recognized statistical services, issuers reports
or communications or other sources believed
to be reliable. However, such information has
not been verified by us and we do not make any
representation to its accuracy or completeness.
Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes
only current opinions which are subject to change.
BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts
or employees may have positions in the securities
or commodities referred to herein, and may as
principal or agent buy and sell such securities
or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer
or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director
for companies mentioned in this report. Neither
the information nor any comment expressed shall
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy any securities or commodities
mentioned herein. There may be instances when
fundamental, technical and competitive opinions
may not be in concert. This firm may from time
to time perform investment banking or other
services for or which investment banking or
other businesses from any company mentioned
in this report. |
Andrew Racz
Dated: March 23, 2006
|
(Article
24 - posted March 23, 2006)
e-mail: mlikar@aol.com
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