Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944

Mongolian Gold

January 8, 2008

I dedicate this thesis  

To the Mongolian People

The Prime Minister

The Cabinet

The Parliament

It is my firm belief that any politician rather elect to deliver $1.5 B for a population of 2.5 M within a year, $600 per person than a picture of the Congress of Vienna, which lasted a full year. It was the largest negotiating session in the last two decades.

The advanced marketing technologies of the international stock exchanges, the modern ideas of financing derivates of the snow covered assets of mines is now a reality. It converts the future gold production into recognized financial instruments and cash.

I discovered Gold Indexed Bonds 25 years ago. 
It works.

My best target is Mongolia! The sister nation of my native country, Hungary.

The Mongolian government, the Mongolian Parliament are the willing victims of an unnecessary dilemma.

Mongolia is a very rich country. Mongolia’s future is bright. The political campaign that is being waged today designed for the merits of the current and future generation of Mongolia can be resolved by ordinary mathematics by application of advanced investment techniques. These solutions are the proper application of the vast progress the international stock markets have made and the modern financing techniques which are available to every country in the universe. A rich country like Mongolia could be the Number One Customer.

Let us now concentrate on the beginning!

  1. Mongolia’s assumed gold reserve is 32 million ounce. The estimated 1 million ounce gold production in a full year of mining with the assumption of $1,000 price per ounce of gold is $1.0 billion.

  2. According to classical theories, this would represent a total value of $32 billion. Assuming no particular dramatic increase in the price of gold, simultaneously with the discounted value of the yearly production, we could conclude that Mongolia can produce 32 billion ounces of gold. If we assume that the discounted value and the future increase of price of gold will equal one another, the total value of the reserve is about $30 billion to $40 Billion.

Total mining reserve

32 million ounce of gold

Current gold price


Yearly production

1,000,000 ounce

First full year of production


Estimated revenue to Mongolia


(after discounts & capital expenditure in 2010)

$300 million

Capital expenditure


For mathematical illustration, we assume an equal split between the producing companies – RTZ and Ivanhoe, commonly called The Ivanhoe Group, and Mongolia – the value of gold reserves of Mongolia is about $16 billion. However, Mongolia is projected to draw only $300 M in 2010 and $500 M in 2011.

I would like to mention that these numbers are not politically accurate. I simply produce the underlying tables to illustrate as a starting point for our presentation.

It should, however, be pointed out that there have been several years of negotiations for the so-called Investment Agreement, that it would take two years to get to production, that it would cost $1 billion to the Ivanhoe Group to get the mines into the production stage, and we are disregarding the usual vagaries accompanying the mining industry which can cause very serious dislocation.



The following tables summarize what I call the starting point for a corporation. Let us call it Mongolian Gold, and let us list it on the NYSE, with the ticker MGG. Let us designate and refer to as the way business is conducted in the 20th century. My report to the Mongolian people, to the Mongolian Cabinet and Parliament is a cheerful presentation of the methods available in the 21st century.






In the 21st century, the international stock markets have advanced, and it is possible to discount future values to create early cash receipts. It is expected, however, in no uncertain near-term, that every contract between any at al parties are legally set and binding.






Going back to our original numbers, valuing the gold reserves at $32 billion of which $16 would then belong to Mongolia, it is quite possible to form a public company and place the entire gold reserves and future products of Mongolia into this company. This company will have international status; it will be in the billion dollar class; therefore, it can be listed on the New York Stock Exchange, on the London Stock Exchange, in China, in Hong Kong, and possibly in Zurich, Switzerland. We name it MONGOLIAN GOLD.


 PRICE: $10
 Share capital:

Authorized: 100,000,000
Issued: 13,000,000
Mongolian ownership: 6,500,000




Assuming that such a company is being formed, its initial market value will not be called excessive if we call it $13 billion. After all, gold production is 2 years away. Please keep in mind the following:



Gold Production has to be covered by an iron-clad agreement of the so-called Investment Agreement. A public company cannot operate with political uncertainty. A public company can operate with financial uncertainty, with prices dropping to $600 per ounce of gold or going to $2,000 per ounce of gold, but the corporate structure has to be confirmed by all the levels of power, including the Mongolian Parliament, Mongolian Cabinet, and the government. Similar commitment has to be obtained from the so-called Ivanhoe Companies, namely Rio Tinto, Inc., Ivanhoe, and Entree Gold.



The corporation which we call Mongolia Gold has to provide a projection schedule whereby gold is to be produced approximately two years after starting the company. This is essential if we want to pre-sell at least one year’s production of 1 million ounces of gold, which we can value at $1,000 per ounce. We could then raise $1.0 billion.



The Mongolian Gold would then be 50% owned by Mongolia, 50% by The Ivanhoe Group, each receiving $6.5 billion worth of stock. Let us now go through a corporate set and indicate all visible benefits to Mongolia.



First, 1 million shares are offered to the public exactly at billion dollar value. The shares can be exchanged for either $1,000 value in two years’ time, can be exchanged for gold produced by the company valuing every $1,000 with one ounce of gold. If the gold price is about $1,000, the stockholder to whom originally the billion dollar value shares are sold will receive the scrip shares, which is an option on further value of the shares. This is called MGG – warrant with NYSE listing.


This is how the arithmetic and market procedure will work. Mongolia would receive a nett of 500,000,000 shares. If the value of each share of Mongolia’s is $10 a share, 650 million shares are valued at $6.5 billion.

Simultaneously, the Ivanhoe Group will receive the same shares.

The million shares which were sold at $10 would be listed on one of the recognized stock markets.

If after two years the shares would receive $10 value gold, which means that gold is at $1,000, the shares would be at parity. However, gold can fluctuate and the original shares while exchanged for 1,000 ounces of gold would then be freely tradable and become optioned or script on the remaining shares of the entire company.

This warrant would be extremely speculative and volatile. The owners of those shares in two, three, or four years’ time may receive enormous return, a very big return, on their values.

After two years, the 100,000,000 (x) shares that are sold for $10 can be exchanged/redeemed for 1 ounce of gold in value.

If the price of gold is over $1,000, investors will receive a “gold script”; a new share exercisable at $1,000 in gold.

The script is listed, tradable. Like the British War Loan – it is nonredeemable.

  1. MG sell $1.0 billion value, indexed stock at $10.
  2. After 2 years, $10 value can be redeemed for $10.
  3. Issue Script.

Let us now look at the benefits to Mongolia of this structure.

  1. The company would raise $1 billion immediately. These monies, 50% belong to Mongolia.
  2. The underwriting company of Mongolia Gold, however, can float $2 billion convertible bonds into corporate shares, which would cover all the construction equipment necessary for completing the mine, which would then produce the gold.
  3. This method would eliminate the heavy capital cost which at the moment would lean on the Ivanhoe Group. All the capital necessary would come from the stock market as opposed to the balance sheet of the individual companies.
  4. It would enable Mongolia to take its $500 million, or let’s say $1 B in loan immediately for benefit of the country.
  5. Furthermore, with this portfolio of $5 billion in MGG stock, Mongolia as a nation can borrow probably a billion dollars. This would then create a picture that the government can deliver $1.5 billion to a population of 2.5 billion and begin the long-term construction and modernization program that Mongolia badly needs.
  6. I would like to emphasize that this could happen all in the year 2008 instead of the year 2010 or 2011, when all the work on creating a producing mine is completed.
  7. It is my firm belief that any politician rather elect to deliver $1.5 B for a population of 2.5 M within a year, $600 per person than a picture of the Congress of Vienna, which lasted a full year. It was the largest negotiating session in the last two years.
  8. The value of the stock, however, is likely to increase. We have started with the original market value of $13 billion. However, if the 32 million ounces of gold becomes a credible reserve and goes to the construction phase, the valuation would at least double and the total estimated value of the company could double.

The stock (MGG) would be then listed as the world’s Number One gold company. Very big reserves, easy production, very strong backing, and if all the political doubts are eliminated, the stock would get the highest evaluation of any gold company in the world.

Let us carry this argument further. Let us go into 2010 or 2011 when full production is underway. The gold that is produces and sold goes into Mongolia Gold. If every year a million ounces of gold is sold for a billion dollars, the billion dollars can fully or partially dividend out to the stockholders. Mongolia is the largest stockholder. In other words, out of a billion dollar new production, the company can take let’s say $300 million out of dividend annually.

Let us now compare two charts, the old chart – the 20th century chart – and the 21st century chart. The year, let’s say, is 2015 and we assume that the production is at the million ounces a year, the price of gold is $1,500, and that Mongolia at least would take 30% of its yearly income out as dividend.

Let us carry the argument even further. It is possible that in the year 2015 the price of gold will be $2,000. IT is possible that if 21 million ounces is discovered, it will be 40 million ounces discovered. Let us now look at Mongolia’s wealth after its original $5 billion valuation stock becomes $15 billion. The picture is realistic and practical and certainly beneficial 15 years later, not only the current generation but the future generation.

The argument can now go even further. With the cash reserves and production of Mongolia Gold in trusted hands led by Rio Tinto, Inc. it is not a passive ownership but an active ownership. The operating management would be able to build an international mining company, an international gold company, an international conglomerate, and become one of the world’s most powerful companies, such as Anglo American was for almost a century, such as Rio Tinto and BHP is in 2008. It is a company itself which can alone supply Mongolia with the new monetary reserves to build the future for the future generation.

The argument is not over. Mongolia has copper and it has 6.4 billion ounces of copper. The same argument as we made with Mongolia Gold can be applied to Mongolia Copper.

I don’t see that I am considered an overly optimistic visionary if I point out that Mongolia not only has gold and copper, it has uranium, it has molybdenum. The emergence of Mongolia Gold would be a very positive factor for the Mongolian stock market, and a whole series of companies will be formed, with joint ownership or partial ownership, which would make the Mongolian stock market lively and the country even richer.

Let me quote the famous words of John F. Kennedy: Let us begin.

My message to my Mongolian friends and the message to all parties concerned is that there is a time when instead of protected negotiations and bickering, we apply our intelligent common sense and construct a picture which is fruitful for people who live today on this planet and can be extremely fruitful for the future generation. Let us go back to history. Negotiate or settle? Was Munich necessary? Actually, the biggest danger of a 21st Century Versailles – an armistice not a peace treaty. A Mongolian version of Versailles can obliterate the Mongolian miracle.

The two go together. To create a picture which sacrifices the current generation for the future never existed in history. We can do both but we have to utilize the tools of the 21st century.

Obviously, the 21st century is different. Today 7 billion people work. Today gold is valuable and is going to be much more valuable, because gold is one of the key monetary reserves and currency with which we finance international trade.

All people participate in this long discussion. I have to analyze the techniques, the methods of the 21st century. The 21st century says that we rely on the people’s attitude toward work. We rely on the people’s attitude toward decency, but at the same time we use the marketing tools and the mathematics of the 21st century so that our century will be called the Century of Progress, instead of unfortunately my generation has learned, a Century of Warfare.

Let me quote President Kennedy again:

Let us never negotiate out of fear and ignorance,
but let us never fear to negotiate.


Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.



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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail:

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.