"1848 and
Beyond"
posted
August 4, 2005
"An
African Queen"
posted August 11, 2005
"Near Hit"
posted August 16, 2005
"Orko
Gold"
posted August 18, 2005
"Mr.
Smith Goes To Hungary"
posted September 1, 2005
"A
Letter To
President Bush"
posted September 8, 2005
"Mr
Clarke -
Call In The Boys"
posted September 12, 2005
"Orezone"
posted September 23, 2005
"U.S.
Gold Corp."
posted September 29, 2005
"Mr.
Prime Minister"
posted October 13, 2005
"The
Business of Hungary is Business!"
posted October 31, 2005
"Then
And Now"
posted November 9, 2005
"50
Relatives Worse Than Yours"
posted November 14, 2005
"Bunker
Hunt-Silver-China"
posted November 28, 2005
"The
Currency of Mass Destruction"
posted December 5, 2005
"Sonesta
International Hotels Corporation"
posted December 29, 2005
"Northern
Star Mining"
posted January 16, 2006
"Other
People's Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
posted January 28, 2006
"Your
Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.
posted February 9, 2006
"A
Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani"
posted February 15, 2006
"Interview
with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation"
posted February 22, 2006
"Sparton
Resources"
posted March 1, 2006
"Harvest
Gold"
posted March 2, 2006
"Midway
Gold
Corporation"
posted March 23, 2006
"Pocketful
Of
Miracles"
posted April 8, 2006
"J.P.
Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
posted April 11, 2006
"The
Principal Guest Was Missing"
posted April 25, 2006
"Ken
Lay's Legacy"
posted May 8, 2006
"Gateway
Gold:
It's A Gold Story"
posted May 15, 2006
"Northern
Star
Mining Corp."
posted May 19, 2006
"I
Am An Immigrant!"
posted June 7, 2006
"Oil
& Gas
Energy Crisis Solution"
posted July 3, 2006
"Let
There Be Sunshine" -
Kirk Kerkorian
posted July 12, 2006
"The
Age of Mediocrity"
posted July 19, 2006
"Silver
In The
Twenty-First Century"
posted August 16, 2006
"Silver
Wheaton - SLW"
posted August 28, 2006
"A
Matter of Reasonable Doubt"
Ken Lay - Enron
posted August 30, 2006
"Brilliant
Mining Corp."
posted September 17, 2006
"The
Kennedy-Nixon debate revisited"
posted October 4, 2006
"The
Arrival of the
Nickel Billionaires"
posted October 18, 2006
"Global
Options
Group, Inc."
posted November 1, 2006
"This
Year I'm Voting For Dick Nixon"
posted November 7, 2006
"Aero
Mechanical Services, Ltd"
posted November 17, 2006
"Entree
Gold Inc."
posted December 13, 2006
"WisdomTree
Investments, Inc."
posted December 26, 2006
"My
Father Died In Auschwitz"
posted January 19, 2007
"Lexam
Exploration, Inc."
posted February 11, 2007
"Robert
Friedland -
The Man of The Year"
posted February 21, 2007
"Rubicon
Minerals Corp."
posted March 1, 2007
"Warren
Buffett - Franklin Roosevelt"
posted March 15, 2007
"Golden
Valley Mines, Ltd"
posted April 21, 2007
"Brilliant
Mining Corp."
posted May 22, 2007
"Bayswater
Uranium Corp."
posted May 30, 2007
"Ghengis
Kahn Was Hungarian"
posted May 31, 2007
"Portal
Resources"
posted June 12, 2007
"Aldershot
Resources Ltd."
posted July 16, 2007
"Entrée
Gold Inc."
Follow Up Report #1
posted July 24, 2007
"The
Age of Special 'Corporate' Relationships"
posted August 23, 2007
"Interview
with
David Hjerpe - Newmac Resources, Inc."
posted August 27, 2007
"Interview
with
Jim Davis - President of Leeward Capital Corporation"
posted September 4, 2007
"Interview
with Professor William Pfaffenberger - Torch River
Resources"
posted September 22, 2007
"Ghengis
Kahn Returns"
posted September 27, 2007
"Jasper
Mining Corporation"
posted September 27, 2007
"Gold
Indexed Bonds"
posted October 11, 2007
"Tagish
Lake Gold Corp."
posted November 1, 2007
"Stalin
& Chavez"
posted November 9, 2007
"Sanj
Bayar -
The Prime Minister of Mongolia"
posted November 15, 2007
"The
Mongolian Wakeup Call"
posted November 16, 2007
"Watergate
Saved Nixon's Life"
posted November 28, 2007
"No
More Munich -
The Mongolian Version of 1938"
posted December 11, 2007
"Sir,
Do Not Abdicate"
posted December 27, 2007
|
|
BERAL,
INC.
Andrew G. Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, New York 10022
Telephone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail:
mlikar@aol.com
January
8, 2008
I
dedicate this thesis
To the Mongolian People
It
is my firm belief that any politician
rather elect to deliver $1.5 B for
a population of 2.5 M within a year,
$600 per person than a picture of
the Congress of Vienna, which lasted
a full year. It was the largest
negotiating session in the last
two decades. |
|
|
The advanced marketing technologies of
the international stock exchanges, the modern ideas of
financing derivates of the snow covered assets of mines
is now a reality. It converts the future gold production
into recognized financial instruments and cash.
I discovered
Gold Indexed Bonds 25 years ago.
It works.
My
best target is Mongolia! The sister
nation of my native country, Hungary. |
|
|
The Mongolian government, the Mongolian
Parliament are the willing victims of an unnecessary dilemma.
Mongolia is a very rich country. Mongolia’s
future is bright. The political campaign that is being
waged today designed for the merits of the current and
future generation of Mongolia can be resolved by ordinary
mathematics by application of advanced investment techniques.
These solutions are the proper application of the vast
progress the international stock markets have made and
the modern financing techniques which are available to
every country in the universe. A rich country like Mongolia
could be the Number One Customer.
Let us now concentrate on the beginning!
-
Mongolia’s assumed
gold reserve is 32 million ounce. The estimated 1 million
ounce gold production in a full year of mining with
the assumption of $1,000 price per ounce of gold is
$1.0 billion.
-
According to classical
theories, this would represent a total value of $32
billion. Assuming no particular dramatic increase in
the price of gold, simultaneously with the discounted
value of the yearly production, we could conclude that
Mongolia can produce 32 billion ounces of gold. If we
assume that the discounted value and the future increase
of price of gold will equal one another, the total value
of the reserve is about $30 billion to $40 Billion.
Total
mining reserve |
32
million ounce of gold |
Current
gold price |
$860/ounce |
Yearly
production |
1,000,000
ounce |
First
full year of production |
2010 |
Estimated
revenue to Mongolia |
|
(after
discounts & capital expenditure
in 2010) |
$300
million |
Capital
expenditure |
$1,500,000 |
|
|
For mathematical illustration, we assume
an equal split between the producing companies –
RTZ and Ivanhoe, commonly called The Ivanhoe Group,
and Mongolia – the value of gold reserves of Mongolia
is about $16 billion. However, Mongolia is projected
to draw only $300 M in 2010 and $500 M in 2011.
I would like to mention that these numbers are not
politically accurate. I simply produce the underlying
tables to illustrate as a starting point for our presentation.
It should, however, be pointed out that
there have been several years of negotiations for the
so-called Investment Agreement, that it would take two
years to get to production, that it would cost $1 billion
to the Ivanhoe Group to get the mines into the production
stage, and we are disregarding the usual vagaries accompanying
the mining industry which can cause very serious dislocation.
| 3. |
|
The
following tables summarize what I call the starting
point for a corporation. Let us call it Mongolian
Gold, and let us list it on the NYSE, with the ticker
MGG. Let us designate and refer to as the way business
is conducted in the 20th century. My report to the
Mongolian people, to the Mongolian Cabinet and Parliament
is a cheerful presentation of the methods available
in the 21st century. |
| |
|
|
| 4. |
|
In
the 21st century, the international stock markets
have advanced, and it is possible to discount future
values to create early cash receipts. It is expected,
however, in no uncertain near-term, that every contract
between any at al parties are legally set and binding. |
| |
|
|
| 5. |
|
Going
back to our original numbers, valuing the gold reserves
at $32 billion of which $16 would then belong to Mongolia,
it is quite possible to form a public company and
place the entire gold reserves and future products
of Mongolia into this company. This company will have
international status; it will be in the billion dollar
class; therefore, it can be listed on the New York
Stock Exchange, on the London Stock Exchange, in China,
in Hong Kong, and possibly in Zurich, Switzerland.
We name it MONGOLIAN GOLD. |
| |
|
|
MONGOLIAN
GOLD
(MGG – NYSE)
PRICE: $10
Share capital:
Authorized:
100,000,000
Issued: 13,000,000
Mongolian ownership: 6,500,000 |
|
| |
|
|
| 6. |
|
Assuming
that such a company is being formed, its initial market
value will not be called excessive if we call it $13
billion. After all, gold production is 2 years away.
Please keep in mind the following: |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
a: |
Gold Production has to be covered by an iron-clad
agreement of the so-called Investment Agreement.
A public company cannot operate with political uncertainty.
A public company can operate with financial uncertainty,
with prices dropping to $600 per ounce of gold or
going to $2,000 per ounce of gold, but the corporate
structure has to be confirmed by all the levels
of power, including the Mongolian Parliament, Mongolian
Cabinet, and the government. Similar commitment
has to be obtained from the so-called Ivanhoe Companies,
namely Rio Tinto, Inc., Ivanhoe, and Entree Gold. |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
b: |
The corporation
which we call Mongolia Gold has to provide a projection
schedule whereby gold is to be produced approximately
two years after starting the company. This is essential
if we want to pre-sell at least one year’s production
of 1 million ounces of gold, which we can value at
$1,000 per ounce. We could then raise $1.0 billion. |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
c: |
The Mongolian
Gold would then be 50% owned by Mongolia, 50% by The
Ivanhoe Group, each receiving $6.5 billion worth of
stock. Let us now go through a corporate set and indicate
all visible benefits to Mongolia. |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
d: |
First,
1 million shares are offered to the public exactly
at billion dollar value. The shares can be exchanged
for either $1,000 value in two years’ time,
can be exchanged for gold produced by the company
valuing every $1,000 with one ounce of gold. If the
gold price is about $1,000, the stockholder to whom
originally the billion dollar value shares are sold
will receive the scrip shares, which is an option
on further value of the shares. This is called MGG
– warrant with NYSE listing. |
| |
|
|
|
This is how the arithmetic and market
procedure will work. Mongolia would receive a nett of
500,000,000 shares. If the value of each share of Mongolia’s
is $10 a share, 650 million shares are valued at $6.5
billion.
Simultaneously, the Ivanhoe Group will
receive the same shares.
The million shares which were sold at
$10 would be listed on one of the recognized stock markets.
If after two years the shares would receive
$10 value gold, which means that gold is at $1,000, the
shares would be at parity. However, gold can fluctuate
and the original shares while exchanged for 1,000 ounces
of gold would then be freely tradable and become optioned
or script on the remaining shares of the entire company.
This warrant would be extremely speculative
and volatile. The owners of those shares in two, three,
or four years’ time may receive enormous return,
a very big return, on their values.
After two years, the 100,000,000 (x) shares that are sold
for $10 can be exchanged/redeemed for 1 ounce of gold
in value.
If the price of gold is over $1,000, investors will receive
a “gold script”; a new share exercisable at
$1,000 in gold.
The script is listed, tradable. Like the
British War Loan – it is nonredeemable.
-
MG sell $1.0 billion
value, indexed stock at $10.
-
After 2 years, $10 value
can be redeemed for $10.
-
Let us now look at the benefits to Mongolia
of this structure.
-
The company would raise
$1 billion immediately. These monies, 50% belong to
Mongolia.
-
The underwriting company
of Mongolia Gold, however, can float $2 billion convertible
bonds into corporate shares, which would cover all the
construction equipment necessary for completing the
mine, which would then produce the gold.
-
This method would eliminate
the heavy capital cost which at the moment would lean
on the Ivanhoe Group. All the capital necessary would
come from the stock market as opposed to the balance
sheet of the individual companies.
-
It would enable Mongolia
to take its $500 million, or let’s say $1 B in
loan immediately for benefit of the country.
-
Furthermore, with this
portfolio of $5 billion in MGG stock, Mongolia as a
nation can borrow probably a billion dollars. This would
then create a picture that the government can deliver
$1.5 billion to a population of 2.5 billion and begin
the long-term construction and modernization program
that Mongolia badly needs.
-
I would like to emphasize
that this could happen all in the year 2008 instead
of the year 2010 or 2011, when all the work on creating
a producing mine is completed.
- It is my firm belief that any politician
rather elect to deliver $1.5 B for a population of 2.5 M
within a year, $600 per person than a picture of the Congress
of Vienna, which lasted a full year. It was the largest
negotiating session in the last two years.
- The value of the stock, however, is likely
to increase. We have started with the original market value
of $13 billion. However, if the 32 million ounces of gold
becomes a credible reserve and goes to the construction
phase, the valuation would at least double and the total
estimated value of the company could double.

The stock (MGG) would be then listed as
the world’s Number One gold company. Very big reserves,
easy production, very strong backing, and if all the political
doubts are eliminated, the stock would get the highest
evaluation of any gold company in the world.
Let us carry this argument further. Let
us go into 2010 or 2011 when full production is underway.
The gold that is produces and sold goes into Mongolia
Gold. If every year a million ounces of gold is sold for
a billion dollars, the billion dollars can fully or partially
dividend out to the stockholders. Mongolia is the largest
stockholder. In other words, out of a billion dollar new
production, the company can take let’s say $300
million out of dividend annually.
Let us now compare two charts, the old
chart – the 20th century chart – and the 21st
century chart. The year, let’s say, is 2015 and
we assume that the production is at the million ounces
a year, the price of gold is $1,500, and that Mongolia
at least would take 30% of its yearly income out as dividend.
Let us carry the argument even further.
It is possible that in the year 2015 the price of gold
will be $2,000. IT is possible that if 21 million ounces
is discovered, it will be 40 million ounces discovered.
Let us now look at Mongolia’s wealth after its original
$5 billion valuation stock becomes $15 billion. The picture
is realistic and practical and certainly beneficial 15
years later, not only the current generation but the future
generation.

The argument can now go even further.
With the cash reserves and production of Mongolia Gold
in trusted hands led by Rio Tinto, Inc. it is not a passive
ownership but an active ownership. The operating management
would be able to build an international mining company,
an international gold company, an international conglomerate,
and become one of the world’s most powerful companies,
such as Anglo American was for almost a century, such
as Rio Tinto and BHP is in 2008. It is a company itself
which can alone supply Mongolia with the new monetary
reserves to build the future for the future generation.
The argument is not over. Mongolia has
copper and it has 6.4 billion ounces of copper. The same
argument as we made with Mongolia Gold can be applied
to Mongolia Copper.
I don’t see that I am considered
an overly optimistic visionary if I point out that Mongolia
not only has gold and copper, it has uranium, it has molybdenum.
The emergence of Mongolia Gold would be a very positive
factor for the Mongolian stock market, and a whole series
of companies will be formed, with joint ownership or partial
ownership, which would make the Mongolian stock market
lively and the country even richer.
Let me quote the famous words of John
F. Kennedy: Let us begin.
My message to my Mongolian friends and the message to
all parties concerned is that there is a time when instead
of protected negotiations and bickering, we apply our
intelligent common sense and construct a picture which
is fruitful for people who live today on this planet and
can be extremely fruitful for the future generation. Let
us go back to history. Negotiate or settle? Was Munich
necessary? Actually, the biggest danger of a 21st Century
Versailles – an armistice not a peace treaty. A
Mongolian version of Versailles can obliterate the Mongolian
miracle.
The two go together. To create a picture
which sacrifices the current generation for the future
never existed in history. We can do both but we have to
utilize the tools of the 21st century.
Obviously, the 21st century is different. Today 7 billion
people work. Today gold is valuable and is going to be
much more valuable, because gold is one of the key monetary
reserves and currency with which we finance international
trade.
All people participate in this long discussion.
I have to analyze the techniques, the methods of the 21st
century. The 21st century says that we rely on the people’s
attitude toward work. We rely on the people’s attitude
toward decency, but at the same time we use the marketing
tools and the mathematics of the 21st century so that
our century will be called the Century of Progress, instead
of unfortunately my generation has learned, a Century
of Warfare.
Let me quote President Kennedy again:
Let
us never negotiate out of fear and
ignorance,
but let us never fear to negotiate. |
|
|
Andrew Racz

(Article
73 - posted January 8, 2008)
DISCLAIMER
Information
contained herein is based on data obtained from
recognized statistical services, issuers reports
or communications or other sources believed
to be reliable. However, such information has
not been verified by us and we do not make any
representation to its accuracy or completeness.
Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes
only current opinions which are subject to change.
BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts
or employees may have positions in the securities
or commodities referred to herein, and may as
principal or agent buy and sell such securities
or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer
or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director
for companies mentioned in this report. Neither
the information nor any comment expressed shall
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy any securities or commodities
mentioned herein. There may be instances when
fundamental, technical and competitive opinions
may not be in concert. This firm may from time
to time perform investment banking or other
services for or which investment banking or
other businesses from any company mentioned
in this report. |
|
e-mail: mlikar@aol.com
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