BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Quest Uranium Corporation

April 5, 2010

(QUC (TSV-Venture)

Shares outstanding:

40.1 million

Fully diluted shares:

48.6 million

52-week trading range:

$0.035 - $4.14

Daily trading volume:

400,000 shares

Market capitalization:

$145.2 million

Working capital:

$6.1 million


Interview with
Peter Cashin
Quest Uranium Corp.

ANDREW RACZ:  This is an interview with Peter Cashin, President and CEO of Quest Uranium Corp. Peter, how long did it take you to become forty years old?

PETER CASHIN:  It's so nice of you to give me such a beautiful compliment.

Q:  How long did it take you?

A:  To realize I was 40 years old, or that I am forty?

Q:  It was a journey, correct?

A:  Quite a journey.

Q:  In your life there was another journey, because the cost of uranium went from 8 cents or 10 cents to over $3.00 a share, and this happened in less than two years.

A:  In actual fact, the largest amount of that growth was in the last seven months of 2009.

Q:  Can you tell the story briefly about the second journey in your life?

A:  Very simply, Quest was launched as a junior uranium exploration company in January of 2008. It was a spinoff from a known multi-commodity junior by the name Free West Resources Canada. We work in earnest towards uranium, but unfortunately we caught the tail end of the uranium boom. As it still happens, one of our properties in northeastern Quebec that we now call Strange Lake led to the discovery of a new rare earths deposit within a three kilometer distance from a known deposit that the Iron Ore Company of Canada found.

Q:  You were now looking for rare elements, or was it just a fortuitous occurrence?

A:  Well, when I made the announcement at the beginning of April, 2009, of Quest's intention to diversify into rare earth it was as a result of having some significant analysis from work that we'd undertaken between 2006 and 2008. So to a degree it wasn't haphazard. It happens that the environment of formation of rare earths was similar to the environment of formation of the uranium deposits that we had defined in our exploration activity.

Q:  Let's go back to early 2008. Why not 2006 or 2004?

A:  We only started exploration for uranium in 2006.

Q:  In terms of rare earth mining and development, let's go back to the year 2000. Was there any real interest at that time, or was it just reliance on foreign imports?

A:  I think for the most part it was a lack of understanding by non-Chinese governments of the sheer importance of rare earths. There was some production in North America from the Molycorp's Mountain Pass deposits in California. That would have been in the 1980s and 1990s, I believe. So there was an understanding of the need of rare earths, but I think that is how Molycorp was put together by Goldman Sachs. This is likely to be the largest rare earths company outside China.

Q:  That's the private company owned by Goldman Sachs, correct?

A:  That's correct now, but at the time it was actually a division of Unical.

Q:  The oil company.

A:  That's correct.

Q:  Let me go back to the year 2000. There was a demand for rare earths in various industries.

A:  That's correct.

Q:  And that was all from Chinese or other sources that the industry fulfilled itself.

A:  Well, as a general rule, yes. Also, I think it was a convenient means for the Chinese to dominate the production side of rare earths. But obviously, with the increased demand of technologies that use rare earths, such as flat screen televisions, mobile phones, PDA's, computer chips, as well as the advent of the hybrid automobile and rechargeable hybrid batteries, wind power generation, a fairly new phenomenon, in the early 2000's it was very minuscule. I think that the growth of rare earths consumption has grown exponentially.

RARE EARTHS ELEMENTS - MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
  • Rare Earth Elements (REE), a series of 15 metals integral to the automotive, high-technology, nanotechnology and aerospace industries.
  • Excellent prospects for growth in the hybrid battery, computer circuit, auto catalyst, super alloy and super magnet sectors.
  • Principal consumers are the United States, Japan, Korea, Western Europe and China.
  • China has increasingly imposed REE export quotas, concern to non-Chinese consumers -- Security of Supply Issues!
  • To meet the estimated global demand of 180-190,000t REO in 2010, around 60,000t of new capacity will be needed to meet the unfulfilled demand from outside China.
  • China has imposed restriction on most REE and all Heavy REE (August, 2009).

As a matter of fact, just in the wind power generation side of the formula, the annualized growth of wind generation has been about 29% per year. 

INSTALLED CAPACITY - 2008
  • Total installed capacity projected to be 190,000 MWh by 2010
  • 2008 to 2009 wind generation growth rate -- 29%
  • Growth seen as exponential to 1.5 million MWh by 2020
  • Each 3.0 MWh wind generator requires 315 kg of Neodymium or 19,800t for current generating capacity.

Q:  So in this current decade, oil prices hit $145 at some stage and the development of the Far East, their demand for metals and minerals increased. For instance, iron ore between the years 2002 and today has a price increase of tenfold. So there is a very major change in both production and distribution of these metals. That took place in this current decade.

A:  That's correct.

Q:  You have a whole list of fifteen different metals, but the issue is that when you look at the markets, they have an incredible internal growth potential. For instance, iPod didn't exist five years ago. What is it in your country, the opposite to Apple Computer?

A:  The BlackBerry.

Q:  Yes. They didn't exist ten years ago.

A:  No, they didn't. If you really look at when consumption for rare earths became important, it's only a recent phenomenon. I keep harking back to the days, in the early 1990s or mid-1990s, when portable cell phones only started coming into use and they were very large. There was an understanding that use of rare earths and mobile phones allowed miniaturization of the phones themselves. So you're only talking about a 15-year time frame in which there's been a rapid growth on the consumption side of rare earths, so it's a new phenomenon.

Q:  Can I use that expression that in the last ten or fifteen years there's a preparation for a new industry and new materials, and the distribution of production in various countries. So the whole thing has been arranged haphazardly all over the world, and maybe the structure is now solid but it wasn't ten years ago. And it's already created very big growth and profit opportunities for companies like yours: 

  • "Quest is an extreme-risk bottom-fishing buy for its Rare Earth exposure."
  • The company has a $120 million market cap; company is holding part of a potentially $16 billion in-situ REE deposit (Strange Lake) -- currently sitting at $145 million.
  • The company gets get a rock value of $304/ton.
  • 65% enriched in the high-value Heavy REE relative to other known deposits (i.e. Thor Lake, NWT).

A:  That's correct. It's related to the new economy. It's a very simple fact that consumption of the technologies that use rare earths are related to a new economy with which there's no track record, there's no training track record. In fact, rare earths were really bought on [offtake] agreements from the Chinese directly. 

Q : At the moment you have let's say 50 million shares outstanding.

A:  About 40.5 million.

Q:  The market cap is about $120 million, or less?

A:  That's correct.

Q:  You are not producing any of these metals, are you?

A:  Not at this current moment, no. There's no current non-Chinese producers of rare earths at the current moment.

Q:  You have about $5-10 million in cash?

A:  We've got about $5.5 million in cash currently.

Q:  So in other words, you can go forward but how far can you go and when would you have to expand and go into production?

A:  Obviously, this year is critical for improved definition of the resource that we announced in 2009, what you would call the B-Zone. To take it to feasibility, we actually have to convert the resource that we're currently estimated now from an inferred category to an indicated category in order to go to feasibility. So feasibility would likely occur in 2011.

Q:  How much money would you need to finish feasibility?

A:  We're estimating in the order of $20-30 million in order to add value through Strange Lake Project resource confirmation. 

  • Completed confirmation drilling of the B-Zone and the Main Zone.
  • To develop sufficient drill data to complete a 43-101 inferred resource estimate by mid-2010.
  • Collected sufficient bulk material (1 ton) to undertake pilot mill studies.
  • Complete market studies for the products developed from Strange Lake and B Zones.

Q:  With the market cap, it's manageable. Once the feasibility is finished, what's the next stage?

A:  I think at this point in time in the resource investment field you're advanced for a long time. I think investors have a full understanding that there is a distinction to be made between a junior exploration company versus a producer. The multiples, your expectation of multiples on the discovery of a brand new resource are significantly higher than when you ramp up into a production company.

Q:  How much money would be required for production?

A:  To bring it to production, we're estimating in the order of $500-600 million at this point.

Q:  Let's say $500 million. After the feasibility and obtaining this money, when would you go into production?

A:  The new deposits that we call the B-Zone at our Strange Lake project in northeaster Quebec is fully exposed at surface and would be open-pitable. As you know, open pit deposits don't require any kind of pre-production stripping and can be brought along on stream fairly quickly. So our estimate is we could comfortably say that from the current moment, within a five-year window, we would potentially be in a position to go into production.

Q:  Let's say the first year in the current price structure, what would be the revenue? Let's assume prices don't change.

A:  It's very difficult. You've got to understand our resource is heavy rare earths, and heavy rare earths, there's no current primary production of heavy rare earths anywhere in the world, even in China. 98% of what Chinese produces is what they call the lights, and they are in much more frequent use at this current moment. A lot of the technologies that would love to have had heavy rare earths have been impeded because of the lack of primary supply. So really, we would have to expand any operation that we have as the consumption fundamentals improve in the heavy rare earths space. So at this point in time, it would be very difficult to even estimate the revenues by virtue of the fact that we literally would be creating a brand new market.

Q:  Let's say that you make an estimate that at the current price level, the first year of production you will bring in $100 million at a 50% profit margin. However, the realistic issue is that five to seven years from now, the markets you serve will be more than a hundred percent bigger. If you take wind power, I suppose it will be double or triple. You take the iPod of the Apple Computer, there can be ten different models for different uses, and when you take worldwide consumption it can be twenty times bigger than it is today. So in other words, your markets are expanding and getting sophisticated, in such a manner that the price really wouldn't matter because it would be essential for a well-sponsored product.

A:  That's correct.

Q:  In other words, we are going into a new economy.

A:  We're in the infancy stages of a new economy, I agree.

Q:  I remember in 1982, the Falkland Islands near Argentina, a fight by the British. And the British were well equipped with airplanes, with everything, and at the unexpected moment, the Argentineans had a missile and downed a big British aircraft. That's when the world realized that today you fight with missiles and not old-fashioned equipment. Hitler didn't understand that the war would be fought with airplanes and they needed gasoline, which he didn't have. So he was defeated very badly in Africa. "Corporal Hitler and Mussolini lost 950,000 men, dead prisoners." Churchill understood that the war is fought with oil. Rare Earth belongs to the 21st century. Detroit needs electric cars. Electric cars need rare earth. These are very well-known analogies, but to some extent it will be on a bigger scale when the new products come into being. In the year 2016 there will be calculators, televisions, these kinds of equipment all over the world for seven billion people, and each needs a little bit of your product. They will each be customers.

A:  That's correct.

Q:  Now, everybody likes seven billion customers. Seven billion is seven billion. We are heading perhaps to the seven billion market. It's inevitable, but it's also inevitable that the market will pay any price for rare earths components because these are the biggest needs for the new products in the 21st century.

A:  I agree with you philosophically, but the thing is ideally it's really difficult to estimate. You know that there's going to be growth, we're in agreement there. But it's the degree of growth that I think that the market doesn't fully comprehend at this point in time. I agree with you. In a five-year window which would allow us to bring our deposits into production, the market will have grown, let you say, exponentially. I firmly believe that. But I think therein lies the problem of evaluating the value of this resource because the biggest question, as we've been so very dependent on the Chinese to provide us with those metals, they have a virtual lock on production as well as marketing and pricing of these metals.

Q:  It's in the paper today that the Chinese are not going to take care of anybody.

A:  They're going to take care of themselves.

Q:  Yes, they take care of business, so that dream is gone and you have to compete. Actually, they're putting an umbrella over you.

A:  Well, no. It's refreshing to know that and I've been following that story as well. But even under the current scenario of rare earths production, the Chinese put Mountain Pass out of business once before by flooding the market with light rare earths. So therefore, I would be quite concerned if I were sitting on a light rare earths element opportunity, because there's nothing to say that the Chinese would not do it again, completely depress the share prices of those companies that are going to be producing some light rare earths elements deposits and be able to turn around, as they're current doing, and buy the companies at pennies on the dollar.

Q:  The last issue I want to raise is what you call "creative financing", which is open to you. With $140-150 million market cap, going into a multi-billion-dollar market, huge price increases and even just the production with $500 million, the actual methods of going along require a whole set of creative financial techniques in order to retain maximum leverage for the current stockholders.

A:  Correct.

Q:  To some extent, the last group of stocks which have done this were the conglomerates of the 1960s, of which some Canadians were very clever. When they bought company after company it created a piece of paper. Then came the companies like Blackstone who with various borrowing techniques bought equity. Now, the current decade, of which this year is one, is the age of creative finance where the rapid increase of product sales and manufacturing costs will challenge the abilities of management to be with it. 

You have to be with it.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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