BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Rare Element Resources Ltd.

February 9, 2010

(RES - TSX.V)

Price:

$3.60 C.

52-week price range:

$1.00 - $4.00

Rare Element Resources Ltd. is a publicly traded company exploring for gold and rare earth elements (REEs).

The company holds 100% interest in the Bear Lodge property, which hosts the largest disseminated REE deposit in North America (US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1049D), as well as extensive gold occurrences.


INTERVIEW WITH
DR. DONALD RANTA, PRESIDENT & CEO
RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES LTD.

ANDREW RACZ:  Doctor, it's Andrew Racz.

DR. DONALD RANTA:  How you doing?

AR:  The only stock I bought today is added to the Medallion (MDL-X) shares. Otherwise, the market is down 200 points, gold is down 40, and quite frankly the fear that Eastern and Central and Southern Europe is going to go bankrupt. They all lived on unsecured debt from the European Union and the IMF.

This is an interview with Dr. Donald Ranta, the chairman of the board of Rare Element Resources. The front page of the reports from the Internet show that between 2008 and 2009 your stock has gone up something like 20 cents to $3.

DR:  Yes.

AR:  Why is this enormous run, and why did it happen in 2010? What is the unusual feature of the event?

DR:  A couple things. First of all, our share price was generally around $1.00 per share before the financial collapse of the fall of 2008. So our share price fell down to I think as low as 26 cents. Then it slowly started climbing, and it was like 41 cents or so in the early winter or spring of 2009. In March of 2009, Rare Element Resources produced a report with a resource estimate of our rare earth mineralization. That resource report indicated that we had 9.8 million tons of better than 4% rare earth oxide. 

  The Future Flow of Events

Spring 2010

Resource estimate

Summer 2010

Scoping study and possibly begin Feasibility study
mining permits (2-4 years)

2014

Production
Cost: $200M ?

2015/2016

Production
10 million lb/year at $4/lb

2018/2019

20 million lb/year

It is anticipated that Rare Elements will produce $80 to $100M worth of rare earth. Assuming 40% profit margin over five years, RES can accumulate $200M.

Furthermore, because of doubling production due to increased market demand, the above figures can double from 10 to 20 million pounds per year.

This resource immediately put it in a position as one of the highest grade deposits, second highest perhaps, in North America of the deposits that have defined resources. So that was number one. Number two, a number of newsletter writers became more aware of the rare earth business and started talking about it, in particular our stock plus a number of other rare earth company stocks. And at the same time, China started making comments about limiting their exports of rare earths from China and insisting that all of the manufacturing plants using rare earths be placed in China.

AR:  You said that you have let's say 10 million tons, 4%. Could you explain what it means in simple language?

DR:  Each ton of rare earth, according to our resource report, which is a NI 43-101 resource report, has a gross metal value of somewhere around $265 per ton at the time when we did that report. Since then, the rare earth prices have gone up, probably to well over $300 per ton. Even $265 per ton is a very high value per ton of material in the mining industry. The mining costs of our material would probably be less than $10 per ton. Processing costs will be much higher than the mining.

AR:  So you have 10 million tons and the valuation has gone to over let's say $300 per ton. So now we have a $3 billion valuation.

DR:  That's correct. If you do the multiplication, that's the kind of number you get for gross metal value in the ground.

AR:  So in other words, what you can say as head of a public company with let's say 30 million shares outstanding, you can tell your stockholders that according to conventional current standards, we have a potential value of $3 billion.

DR:  That's correct. 

CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Shares outstanding

29,496,236

Fully diluted

34,612,736 ( 2,546,000 options + 2,570,500 warrants)

Market capitalization

$100 million (February 2010)

Cash on hand

U.S. $5.0 million cash and no debt

AR:  And the $3 billion, based on 30 million shares outstanding, is a very high figure. Certainly more than $3 a share.

DR:  That's correct. I'm told that most analysts who work with junior mining shares value the shares at somewhere around 5% and up to 10% of the gross metal value in the ground, as a rule of thumb. So if you take 5% of 3 billion, that's around $150 million. So that would be a reasonable valuation for our company. We're actually around $110 million total market cap right now. But this is what I'm told by different analysts. 

Evaluation of Junior Rare Element Mining Shares

Gross market value

$3.0 billion

5%

$1.50 million

Current market value

$100 million

Ratio

3:2

AR:  You are one of the seasoned Rare Earth companies. Correct?

DR:  That's right. We've been in the business...our predecessor company, Paso Rico, has been in the business for over ten years, and Rare Element Resources was formed as a separate company, with Paso Rico being an integral part of that in 2003. So we've been in the rare earth business for quite a number of years, even when it wasn't very popular.

AR:  You are one of the leaders, a seasoned company, and you say that according to the conventional valuation, which is about $150 million in the current resources, your market cap is about $100 million (fully diluted).

DR:  Right.

AR:  So your stockholders already very nicely benefited from your activities. And the other point again, as a layman I can say that in the next three to five years, the possibility exists that you will expand your gross metal values from $3 billion to $10 billion maybe to $15 billion, and the company valuation will go from $300 to $400 million.

DR:  It could well be.

AR:  It could be. Is there any likelihood that it will reverse itself?

DR:  No, I don't see too much chance of that. But you never know. Markets are strange. Sometimes they don't make a lot of sense to me.

AR:  Today the price of gold was down 40 points, so anything can happen.

DR:  That's the other interesting thing about our property in Bear Lodge, Wyoming is that we have a substantial global occurrence on it also, and Newmont is our partner in that. There's a question of whether or not Newmont is going to stay in the venture, whereas they may not find something big enough for them, but if we could find one or two or three million ounces. We again could have a very substantial resource that could be beneficial to the company.

Investment Highlights

A Vancouver-based resource exploration company:

Attractive share structure

Strong management and corporate communications

U.S. $5 million cash on hand and no debt

Exploring the Wyoming Bear Lodge property, which potentially hosts:

Cripple Creek-style gold targeted by Newmont

One of the largest rare-earth occurrences in North America

Vision:

Creating shareholder value through:

  A foundation in rare-earth development

—  A future in gold exploration and development

[As the rare earths became more valuable to RES, we changed our vision]

AR:  Let's leave gold aside and let me ask you this. Why is it that the rare earth game or interest did not happen ten years ago? Why is it happening now, and where is it going in the next ten years?

DR:  I think the big reason was that China has produced as much rare earths as the world needed. They did that pretty continuously for probably more than twenty years. They produced so much rare earth that it drove down the price in the 1990's, so the other major producer in the world, Molycorp, producing out of the Mountain Pass Mine in California, was forced out of business. Molycorp continued producing at a very low level from stockpiles, but ceased all mining. But China over the last four or five years has been reducing their exports of rare earths about 10% per year, and they have actually made statements that by 2012 or 2013, they may not be exporting any more rare earths. That's what has caused this big concern around the world. Now, if China were still producing as much rare earths as the world needed at reasonable prices, I'm not sure we'd see this frenzy of activity in the Western world.

AR:  I gather that the rare earth supplies some of the most rapidly growing, high tech industries in the world. 

Industrial Demand

China produces 90-95% of world's REE supply.

There is one producing North American mine - Mountain Pass in California has been restarted.

With uses expanding rapidly, the REE market is already over U.S. $1 billion in the USA alone. Industrial uses include:

  • Catalysts, including petroleum cracking and auto emissions
  • Rechargeable Ni-metal-hydride batteries, super magnets
  • Hydrogen storage, nuclear reactors, magnetic refrigeration
  • Metal alloys, ceramics and glass additives
  • Fiber optics, lasers, phosphors, computer memory

DR:  Yes.

AR:  Could you kindly mention some of the big markets that you are targeted to do business with? 

Consumer Demand

Consumer product uses include:

  • Hybrid cars - about 27 kilograms per vehicle
  • Rechargeable Ni-metal-hydride batteries, super magnets
  • Hydrogen storage, nuclear reactors, magnetic refrigeration
  • Metal alloys, ceramics and glass additives, wind turbines
  • Fiber optics, lasers, phosphors, computer memory

DR:  A lot of my information on supply and demand comes from a man named Dudley Kingsnorth, who's probably the leading expert in the world on mineral economics of rare earths. Maybe China has others but they don't talk much. Dudley Kingsnorth is out of Australia and he has a technical background. He's a metallurgist, and he's worked in mineral economics of rare earth for about the last five to seven years. He indicates that the greatest increase in rare earth usage and value will be especially three commodities -- lanthanum, neodymium, and praseodymium. Those are quite large markets. Lanthanum is used especially in the nickel metal hydride battery. It has many other uses, too, but that's where its greatest increase in usage is projected, the nickel metal hydride battery. For instance, in a Toyota Prius automobile that has a nickel metal hydride battery, there are about 15 kilograms of lanthanum in every battery.

AR:  Can you mention some other markets?

DR:  Neodymium is used in permanent magnets, many times called super magnets. Neodymium is also used anywhere from 10 to 15 kilograms in every Toyota Prius hybrid automobile, and probably every other automobile too. What super magnets allow is a miniaturization of electrical motors. Their usage is going up tremendously. Every wind turbine, these great big wind turbines that generate electricity, and President Obama wants to have many more of those around the countryside, every wind turbine that uses that technology -- and that is the best technology, to use the neodymium magnet in those wind turbines -- uses anywhere from 560 up to 700 pounds of neodymium in every one of them. Most of the wind turbines today do not have rare earths in them, but they are much larger, more cumbersome, and less efficient than the ones using Neodymium.

AR:  What about computers or iPods, any of these electronic gadgets? 

DR:  Every one of those use rare earths. The hard drive on almost every computer now is made with neodymium magnets.

AR:  And rare earth is an essential part of all these markets?

DR:  Yes. 

Bear Lodge Geology

Alkaline-Igneous Complex

Cripple Creek-Bear Lodge Comparison

Bear Lodge Geology & General Target Areas

AR:  It's a definite must.

DR:  Oh, absolutely. Cell phones, computers, TV sets, any electronic device.

AR:  I have a theory that in the last let's say 25 years, actually ever since President Nixon ran off the convertibility of gold, there has been development in the world where everything was financed on borrowed money. Things got out of hand and various political issues happened, the world was rearranged, and nowadays the most positive factors in the world are technological changes.

For instance, Apple Computer definitely introduced novel ideas. They are big markets. There is a field which is sort of amusing, electric cars, which could be enormous markets. These kinds of technological changes may be leading the world out of the current bad situation, and as a result your industry came along and said, look, we can be part of it and we can accelerate and refine the growth of these industries. Meanwhile, you have today five billion people who are working. When I left Hungary, maybe one and a half billion people worked.

Those five billion people, like you and me, on Saturday evening will go to McDonald's, have a hamburger, spend money, and they want a better life. What happens? Families buy iPods or other personal computers or cars for their children, and that's how the world is developing. Now, the largest of the countries was China and India. And the Chinese say we have been battling for centuries with the Western powers like Japan, America, and so on, but we are not stupid. We got President Nixon to come and visit us and open the door, and we can manufacture anything that the West manufactures and we have more people than the West. So as a result, they are going to have more computers, they've replaced bicycles, they have different kinds of cars, and since it's a planned economy the Politburo would say that we will need all these metals for the next ten or fifteen years, and we none to even sell to the West.

Furthermore, I think I'm right in saying that the world is going nuclear, and the uranium industry has so many technical needs that they could be an enormous market for you, for your industry.

DR:  Oh, absolutely.

AR:  I read that the uranium industry was mainly pushed along in this world by a fellow Hungarian, Professor Edward Teller. You know him?

DR:  Yes. A very well-known physicist.

AR:  I met him many times. He was Hungarian and my aunt was the most famous Hungarian actress, so he was willing to talk to me. He had a vision, and his vision of nuclear energy in the whole world was probably creating markets to many companies, many people, and many sophisticated metals, such as the one you are making. The markets that you serve, five years from now, ten years from now, could be 20, 30, 40 times bigger than today, which means you can't be forced to find more metals but the price is going to go up substantially. Correct?

DR:  That's correct.

AR:  Harold Simmons circled around titanium, and today he is the titanium industry of the Western Hemisphere. That's the world we live in. That's my vision of your business. Am I correct?

DR:  Yes, you are correct.

AR:  Let me ask you what will happen to your company in the next three years, then five years?

DR:  We're going to have a new resource report this spring. We'll have a preliminary engineering/economic study done, called a scoping study, that will be done sometime this summer. And if that's sufficiently positive, we'll move into a feasibility study. Now, the feasibility study will probably take the better part of a year, and the key thing with every rare earth deposit is to get the metallurgy down, to understand the metallurgy and to get a process where you can get a good concentrate. We're still working on the metallurgy of our project, but we're told that we're further along than most of our competitors based on the kind of grades that we're able to concentrate. I expect that maybe if it all works out well, we'll start our mine permitting this coming summer. Once the scoping study is done, we can start the mine permitting. That'll be probably two to three years or a four-year process. If there's a delay in when we can start production, it'll be because of the permitting. Theoretically, we could begin production by 2014. But with a typical permitting scenario, it might be 2015. The timing would be something like that.

AR:  How much money would you use up to get there?

DR:  It would probably be close to $200 million. Theoretically, we should be able to do it for less than that. Trying to be conservative I really think that we could do it for less than $100 million, but just looking at what some of the other mines are spending for their mine development and building a plant and everything, probably $200 million is more realistic. This capital cost is a best guess based on very preliminary data.

AR:  You finance it by equity or loan capital or partnerships?

DR:  We don't know at this point. It probably would be a combination of the first two.

AR:  What happens in the following two years, after 2015?

DR:  Then we'd be slowly ramping up production, and we should be producing probably about ten million pounds per year of rare earth oxide, then moving up closer to 20 million pounds per year.

AR:  What would you sell it for per pound?

DR:  With the current price, it would be somewhere between $3.50 and $4.00 per pound. 

AR: So now there's a $200 million investment and you start, say, with less than 50 million production, which can double to 100 million, but obviously with very high profit margin.

DR:  Yes.

AR:  So in other words, it's feasible.

DR:  That's based on very order-of-magnitude, back-of-the-envelope numbers. Nothing proven but that's our best estimate at this time.

AR:  In 2015, you start production, selling, reaching $100 million. In 2020, what will happen? What's the profile of the company?

DR:  Based on what we know right now, we should be in production for at least fifteen years. And as we're expanding our resource, we should be in production longer than that. So I would expect that we continue producing at roughly that same rate for at least 20 to 30 years.

AR:  In other words, between $50 and $100 million, probably 100 because of the prices, 20 years is $2 billion, and that is compared to a total investment of $200 million. And a very big cash flow, so the company will become a mining giant. You go into partnership with China and buy up Mongolia. Last question. In 2015, where is the industry going to be?

DR:  I think there will be a lot more production from overseas—outside of China. I think China has just about peaked out on their production, and all the new production that's going to be needed is going to have to come from overseas, meaning from Australia, from Canada, from the U.S., from South Africa, maybe Brazil, wherever the rare earth deposits are.

AR:  In other words, in ten years' time all of you could be suppliers to China.

DR:  That's possible. It's possible, although China still have 40% of the world's known reserves.

AR:  But you can walk over to Shanghai or Beijing and say, listen, we are partners now. We are partners. 

DR:  That could well be.

AR:  But the business is going to be there, the production will be there, the demand will be there. At the moment there is much more interest in your and your colleagues' companies in the stock market than in banking circles. The big transactions are not yet there.

DR:  That's correct.

AR:  You went into partnership in a limited segment with Medallion. It's a small company, $6 million market cap. My wife is already a stockholder. That's a very small cap for a business like they are in with you.

DR:  Yes.

AR:  Who do you consider to be your two most noteworthy competitors?

DR:  Basically it's Molycorp and Lynas Corporation. Lynas Corporation is the Australian company. Those two are the two front runners. They have higher grade deposits. They both have quite large deposits, and they're the ones that are going to be in production probably by 2012.

AR:  I remember in 1980, there was a Canadian company, Commodore International, making personal computers.

DR:  I remember those.

AR:  The head of the company was a Bahamian diplomat. I've forgotten his name. In the summer, we have a house in the Hamptons and we were in a club, and I said to a fellow who was head of a small brokerage, I said I'm going to add to my position in Commodore. And he said you are very wise. I asked why. He said because in about three weeks Apple Computer is going public, and that would be valued at...he gave me a number. So they would be converted to Commodore. He said Commodore will go from $20 to $300. And it went to $2,000.

Although you have been on the market, are very successful, so are other companies, if Molycorp has Goldman Sachs ownership and backing, goes public, then each and every one of you, including Rare Element Resources, could have a multiple jump because of comparison to Molycorp. That would be the beginning of the history of your industry in the high-class segment of the stock market.

DR:  Right.

AR:  So basically speaking, there is another game in town for rare elements, and that's the capitalization on the market. That if the capitalization can go let's say with the Molycorp catalyst from $100 million to $300-400 million, and you raise some convertible debt and expand, buy gold, and so on, you may in the next five or six years grow into a capitalization of let's say half a billion and if you want, you can become a mining giant.

In other words, the story of Rare Element Resources has not really begun. 

Current market cap ($3.00) $100M 26 million shares
Cost of production $200M
5-year profit $200M
Debt reduction -200
Double profit on higher volume & price ambition $200M
Per share $2.00
Refinancing at $10.00 10M shares + note
36M
Adjusted EPS $3.00

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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"Ghengis Kahn Returns"
Posted September 27, 2007

"Interview with Professor William Pfaffenberger - Torch River Resources"
Posted September 22, 2007 

"Interview with
Jim Davis - President of Leeward Capital Corporation"

Posted September 4, 2007 

"Interview with
David Hjerpe - Newmac Resources, Inc."

Posted August 27, 2007 

"The Age of Special "Corporate" Relationships"
Posted August 23, 2007

"Entrée Gold Inc."
Follow Up Report #1

Posted July 24, 2007

"Aldershot Resources Ltd."
Posted July 16, 2007 

"Portal Resources"
Posted June 12, 2007 

"Ghengis Kahn Was Hungarian"
Posted May 31, 2007

"Bayswater Uranium Corp."
Posted May 30, 2007 

"Brilliant Mining Corp."
Posted May 22, 2007

"Golden Valley Mines, Ltd"
Posted April 21, 2007

"Warren Buffett - Franklin Roosevelt"
Posted March 15, 2007

"Rubicon Minerals Corp."
Posted March 1, 2007

"Robert Friedland -
The Man of The Year"

Posted February 21, 2007

"Lexam Exploration, Inc."
Posted February 11, 2007

"My Father Died In Auschwitz"
Posted January 19, 2007

"WisdomTree Investments, Inc."
Posted December 26, 2006

"Entrée Gold Inc."
Posted December 13, 2006

"Aero Mechanical Services, Ltd"
Posted November 17, 2006

"This Year I"m Voting For Dick Nixon"
Posted November 7, 2006

"Global Options
Group, Inc."

Posted November 1, 2006

"The Arrival of the
Nickel Billionaires"

Posted October 18, 2006

"The Kennedy-Nixon debate revisited"
Posted October 4, 2006

"Brilliant Mining Corp."
Posted September 17, 2006

"A Matter of Reasonable Doubt"
Ken Lay - Enron

Posted August 30, 2006

"Silver Wheaton - SLW"
Posted August 28, 2006 

"Silver In The
Twenty-First Century"

Posted August 16, 2006

"The Age of Mediocrity"
Posted July 19, 2006

"Let There Be Sunshine"
Kirk Kerkorian

Posted July 12, 2006

"Oil & Gas
Energy Crisis Solution"

Posted July 3, 2006

"I Am An Immigrant!"
Posted June 7, 2006

"Northern Star
Mining Corp."

Posted May 19, 2006 

"Gateway Gold:
It"s A Gold Story"

Posted May 15, 2006

"Ken Lay's Legacy"
Posted May 8, 2006

"The Principal Guest Was Missing"
Posted April 25, 2006

"J.P. Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
Posted April 11, 2006

"Pocketful Of
Miracles"

Posted April 8, 2006 

"Midway Gold
Corporation
"
Posted March 23, 2006 

"Harvest Gold"
Posted March 2, 2006 
 
"Sparton Resources"
Posted March 1, 2006 

"Interview with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation
"
Posted February 22, 2006 

 
"A Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani
"
Posted February 15, 2006
 
"Your Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.

Posted February 9, 2006

"Other People"s Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
Posted January 28, 2006

"Northern Star Mining"
Posted January 16, 2006 
 
"Sonesta International Hotels Corporation"
Posted December 29, 2005 

"The Currency of Mass Destruction"
Posted December 5, 2005
 
"Bunker Hunt-Silver-China"
Posted November 28, 2005

"50 Relatives Worse Than Yours"
Posted November 14, 2005

"Then And Now"
Posted November 9, 2005 

"The Business of Hungary is Business!"
Posted October 31, 2005

"Mr. Prime Minister"
Posted October 13, 2005
 
"U.S. Gold Corp."
Posted September 29, 2005

"Orezone"
Posted September 23, 2005

"Mr Clarke -
Call In The Boys"

Posted September 12, 2005
 
"A Letter To
President Bush"

Posted September 8, 2005

"Mr. Smith Goes To Hungary"
Posted September 1, 2005
 
"Orko Gold"
Posted August 18, 2005

 "Near Hit"
Posted August 16, 2005

"An African Queen"
Posted August 11, 2005

"1848 and Beyond"
Posted August 4, 2005

 

 

Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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