BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

REMX - NYSE ARCA - MV.Rare Earth/Strategic Metals

November 8, 2010 

  Price: $21.31, November 5, 2010
 
Day's price range:
$21.00 - $21.30
  Note: Are rare earth stocks more than a bubble?
Digging into rare earth investment.

In the last few days of October, 2010, Van Eck launched a new ETF which would capitalize on the various companies' progress in what is called the rare earth metals phenomenon. In view of the fact that there aren't many rare earth companies that can be considered at this stage as investment potential, the ETF has included companies in related fields, therefore eliminating the concept of pure plays in the business. Accordingly, the ETF is called Market Vectors Rare Earth, Strategic Metals to cover the real and related field of rare earths.

Rare-Earth Element
Oxide Resource
% Relative Value
Lanthanum
29.3%
20.4%
Cerium
45.9%
15.5%
Praseodymium
4.4%
7.7%
Neodymium
14.4%
25.4%
Samarium
2.4%
1.1%
Europium
0.6%
17.5%
Gadolinium
1.2%
0.8%
Terbium
0.2%
5.6%
Dysprosium
0.5%
5.3%
Yttrium
0.9%
0.6%
Total
99.8%
99.9%

Rare earth companies in the year 2010 have moved at a rate almost unheard of in the reputable investment field. Some moved up 300 percent, 240 percent, and the future seems on stock market performance quite promising. The rare earth phenomenon exists because of the end products, the 17 elements of rare earth, are critical components of light bulbs, electric car batteries, wind turbines, strategic defense equipment, all considered part of a civilization. The rare earth components need to serve the entire world, and therefore the rising demand for rare earth has created almost, as I heard from a major player, a panic situation in the world.

The supply of rare earth is becoming a political issue. 97 percent of rare earth oxide is produced in China. At the same time, only 35 percent is from approved reserves in China itself. Sizable deposits are known to exist in the United States, Canada, Australia, India, Brazil and Mongolia. With the price increase of 2010, a revolution has taken place not only in the field of exploration, but at the same time in the brokerage offices and investment banking offices all over the world. Although it is predicted that new production will not reach the marketplace except four to five years from now, the preparation of matching money, mining and copper development has already begun. There are almost thirty and maybe even fifty companies, small in size, total lack of resources, which have begun to prepare themselves in developing a plausible and credible mine. This are the reserves which account for 63 percent outside China.

World Mine Production and Reserves: Reserves data for Australia, China and India were updated based on data from the respective countries.

 
Mine Production
2008     2009
Reserves
United States
13,000,000
Australia
5,400,000
Brazil
650
650
48,000
China
120,000
120,000
36,000,000
Commonwealth of Independent States
NA
NA
19,000,000
India
2,700
2,700
3,100,000
Malaysia
380
380
30,000
Other countries
NA
NA
22,000,000
World total (rounded)
124,000
124,000
99,000,000

World Resources:  Rare earths are relatively abundant in the earth's crust, but discovered minable concentrations are less common than for most other ores. U.S. and world resources are contained primarily in bastnasite and monzite. Bastnasite deposits in china and the United States constitute the largest percentage of the world's rare earth economic resources, while monazite deposits in Australia, Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and the U.S. constitute the second largest segment. Apatite, cheralite, eudialyte, loparite, phosphorites, rare-earth bearing (ion absorption) clays, secondary monazite, spent uranium solutions and xenotime makeup most of the remaining resources. Undiscovered resources are thought to be very large relative to expected demand.

The near-term situation is at the panic level. Whereas the Chinese at the moment produce 95 percent of the world's rare earth and it is their destiny to supply the whole universe, this is happening when China itself has an increased demand for the rare earth mines and refineries.

The rare earth production which was about 30,000 tons in 1980, and reached 120,000 in 2009, is likely to be between 180,000 tons to 225,000 tons by the year 2020. If we assume that an average tonnage would sell for $20,000, we can postulate a table of increased production. We have in front of us the development of a high margin, very much needed new industry.

PRODUCTION
1980
30,000 tons
2008
180,000 tons
2012
220,000 tons
Selling price
$20,000
2020
300,000
Revenue increase 2020/2030
120,000 tons
$3.6 billion

However, the production, or rather the demand, may increase substantially as the end products like electric cars could demand increased requirements. Electric cars today are technically non-existent as a major consumer item. Yet some experts predict that by 2020, 10 percent of the world's automobile production will be electric. Since electric cars are a technological breakthrough, we must analyze these figures in light of an increased automobile production in the whole world and increased percentage in electric cars, and an increased demand for rare elements.

Application
Growth Rate
% p.a.
2013 demand
(tons)
Catalysts
6-8%
32-36,000
Glass Additive
1%
14,000
Polishing Powder
6-8%
21-25,000
Metal Alloys
15-20%
50-55,000
Magnets
10-13%
45-50,000
Phosphors & Pigments
7-9%
14-15,000
Ceramics
7-9%
10-11,000
Other
7-9%
13-14,000
Total 8-11%
205-215,000

Electric Cars

Electric cars are simply just one end product which demands rare elements. However, in the changing world we live in this is a reality. This has to be translated to the rare elements international picture, and of course the price structure. A similar picture appears about calculators such as iPads or wind turbines which are already an established industry but whose future is probably growing at a great multiple in the world universe.
Corresponding to what takes place in the marketplace, we now have to reflect upon the business at hand, namely the investments required to develop mines that mine rare earth and the size of those companies and market capitalization that are being developed.

In the U.S., which we mentioned as one of the nations with proven reserves, the largest company is Molycorp whose market capitalization has increased since going public in early 2010.

Molycorp - MCP
Original issue price
$24
Current price
$36
Current market price
$2.4B
Shares outstanding
82.0M
Note: By 2020, with 40,000 tons production, the market price can hit $10B.

The second company, which is a Canadian company, Rare Elements Resources, has sizable interests in the name of Bear Lodge Properties located in Wyoming. Rare Elements had a public offering a few months ago at a price of $3.50. At the time of writing in early November, 2010, the stock has run up to $12.00 a share and the market capitalization increased accordingly. It is our estimate that at the time of writing, Rare Elements Resources is seeking a $50 million initial financing to open a mine, to be followed by $100 million offering to develop the mine. The change in capitalization will increase accordingly.

Van Eck formed an ETF called REMX which is listed on NYSE ARC and can be obtained for trading in other major stock exchanges. The sample of companies which contain the ETF are listed in Table 7.

Not all these companies are pure ETF's for a very simple reason that related so-called strategic companies are reflected in the development of the rare elements industry. However, about thirty companies which have some exploratory reserves and a moderate amount of capital are in Australia, Canada and the U.S., and are listed in the table below.
 

Other ETF's issued by Van-Eck Global
Fund
Ticker
Commencement
Date
Volume as of 11/04/10
Index Ticker
Agribusiness ETF
MOO
08/31/2007
1,868,168
DXAG
Coal ETF
KOL
01/10/2008
540,305
TCOAL
Global Alternative Energy ETF
GEX
05/03/2007
36,505
AGIXLT
Gold Miners EFT
GDX
05/16/2006
13,993,157
GDM
Junior Gold Miners ETF
GDXJ
11/10/2009
5,342,183
MVGDXJTR
Nuclear Energy ETF
NLR
08/13/2007
207,308
DXNE
Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF
REMX
10/27/2010
885,755
MVREMXTR
RVE Hard Assets Producers ETF
HAP
08/29/2008
50,937
RVEIT
Solar Energy ETF
KWT
04/21/2008
103,248
SOLRXT
Steel ETF
SLX
10/10/2006
252,450
STEEL
 
 
 
 
 
International EFT's
 
 
 
 
Africa Index ETF
AFK
07/10/2008
23,477
DJAFKT
Brazil Small-Cap ETF
BRF
05/12/2009
700,060
MVRIOTR
China ETF
PEK
10/13/2010
77,319
CSIR0300
Egypt Index ETF
EGPT
02/16/2010
2,480
MVEGPTTR
Gulf States Index ETF
MES
07/22/2008
28,427
DJMEST
India Small-Cap ETF
SCIF
08/24/2010
39,497
MVSCIFTR
Indonesia Index ETF
IDX
01/15/2009
181,328
MVINDOTR
Latin America Small-Cap Index ETF
LATM
04/06/2010
22,100
MVLATMTR
Poland ETF
PLND
11/24/2009
54,668
MVPLNDTR
Russia ETF
RSX
04/24/2007
4,574,946
DXRPUS
Vietnam ETF
VNM
08/11/2009
124,144
MVVNMTR
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty ETF's
 
 
 
 
Environmental Services ETF
EVX
10/10/2006
1,555
AXENV
Gaming ETF
BJK
01/22/2008
51,994
WAGRT

The important thing to point out is that as the industry develops, as one company after another which has proven or about to be proven reserves for rare elements, are going to increase perhaps in price and will be perhaps capable of raising capital and suddenly what is called a penny stock will become a corporate entity which would constitute investment potential.

From the point of view of REMX, it is by all measures and means similar to the silver and gold trusts which have had a phenomenal increase in price in the last four or five years, and because of public interest they became vehicles that constitute a legitimate component of many institutional portfolios. At the same time, both the silver and gold trusts are favorite trading vehicles and they turn around on a daily basis as one of the most wanted stocks on the various stock exchanges, particularly the NYSE.

As an indicator, we have to look at the past and development of the platinum ETF and recently the palladium ETF. Actually, the public would never have thought of seeking to commit sizable sums to platinum or particularly to palladium. The palladium ETF made it possible to create an investment vehicle, and its history, or rather recent history, is illustrated below.

Trust Features
Sponsor
ETF Securities USA LLC
Underlying metal
Physical, allocated palladium plates and ingots, to LPPM specifications
Vault Inspector
Inspectorate International
Palladium Bar Count
List of allocated plates and ingots and copies of the plate and ingot counts available daily at www.etfsecurities.com
Custodian
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
Zurick Sub-Custodiam (January '10)
UBS A.G.
Vault Location London, U.K. and Zurich, Switzerland
Trustee The Bank of New York Mellon
Expense Ratio 0.60% per annum ordinary brokerage commissions to apply.

Palladium Price Drivers

After rising above $1,000 per ounce in 2001, palladium prices declined for the next two years, falling below $200. As of January 2009, palladium was trading at about $430. Because palladium is used in various industrial applications and has appeal as an inflation hedge, prices for the metal can be impacted by a wide variety of factors.

Price drivers of palladium include:

* Production levels in South Africa, Russia, and the U.S.
* Hedging activity and unwinding by palladium producers and consumers
* Inflation expectations among investors
* Geopolitical tensions in palladium producing regions

While the manufacturing sector accounts for the vast majority of platinum demand, the metal is also becoming popular as an investment. Physically backed investment demand, including coins, bars, investments held in allocated accounts and exchange traded products, has steadily risen over the last decade and represented approximately 5% of total reported demand in 2008.

Let us now return to the issue of REMX. As we stated, REMX was created by Van Eck. The size of an ETF grows with the daily investment by the public. If the public buys 1,000 REMX shares at $20, the $20 is then reinvested by the trustees in the component stocks which of course now receive an increased buying power based on the pro rata investments in REMX.

Since rare earth has been the two most active stocks trading on the NYSE, particularly Molycorp and Rare Elements Resources, we calculated that on October 29, 2010, the total turnover on these two companies in America alone was $500 million. The actual size of REMX after two days was about $35 million. It is therefore interesting to see that if the same $500 million on a daily basis invested in REMX, the stock of the component stocks like Lynas in Sydney would increase, and the corresponding valuation of the REMX would increase.

There is no question that interest in rare earth companies as investment vehicles if it's translated not through individual companies alone, but by the purchase of REMX, the price of the component stocks are likely to increase, and so is the valuation of REMX.

Since rare earth investments today are painted almost on a daily basis by the London Financial Times, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, we can assume that the commitment of funds all over the world into REMX will increase, the price of the rare earth companies are certainly not going to suffer, and at the same time a reasonable appreciation of the REMX stock would follow. In fact, based on the assumption of the industry and the recent experience, we may conclude that never in the history of the stock exchange has there been more interest suddenly been directed to an investment vehicle as REMX, either directly or indirectly, into the component companies or indirectly to the component companies through REMX. We have now concluded that an investment vehicle has been found whose growth will be comparable to Xerox of the 1960s, Resorts International and casinos in 1978, and Apple Computer in 2009 and 2010. We can also conclude that the rare earth phenomenon is not going to disappear. There is a Chinese dominance in rare earth mining. There is a questionable on and off Chinese embargo which can be assumed, and therefore the calculations for the next four or five years indicates to us that rare earth investment is likely to stay. Various underwritings will become common and various mining companies will increase in size and with the combined psychological and practical interest, REMX will become one of the most colorful investment vehicles in the world.

Strategic metals ETFs as formed by the reputable and well-known financial holding company, Van Eck Associates, was launched on October 29, 2010.

As a reminder, the statement is to be made that there is a problem that at the time of writing, there aren't many remote pure-play of rare earth metals in existence. Therefore, Van Eck's representative had to include non-pure-play companies. The name reflects the change.

China today owns over 90 percent of the rare earth metals production, and the situation is by no means stable.

Key Statistics

Estimated World Production of Rare Earths
(in tons of total rare earth oxide)
Country
2008
2009
2010
2014
China 115,000 (93%) 90,000 (93%) 120,000 (94%) 165,000 (81%)
Others 9,000 (7%) 6,500 (7%) 7,500 (8%) 38,500 (19%)
Total 124,000 (100%) 96,500 (100%) 127,500 (100%) 203,400 (100%)
Estimated World Demand of Rare Earths
(in tons of total rare earth oxide)
Country
2008
2009
2010
2014
China 77,000 (59%) 65,000 (72%) 92,000 (61%) 133,000 (65%)
Others 54,000 (41%) 25,000 (28%) 53,000 (39%) 72,000 (35%)
Total 131,000 (100%) 90,000 (100%) 135,000 (100%) 208,000 (100%)

China occasionally hinted at an all-out embargo which has obviously has the most bullish effect on real and non-real and related rare earth companies. Based on the experience of the past year and the performance of rare earth companies, it is my considered opinion because of the facts noted above. Market Vector Rare Earth Strategic Metals ETF, which trades under the symbol of REMX, will emerge as a similar stock market success as Xerox was in 1964, Resorts International in 1978, and Apple Computer in 2009 and 2010. It is a phenomenon, and like every unique stock market potential, it will not only create great trading activity, but in many respects it will enter just like the stocks I named above, it will enter stock market history.

I cannot help but remind the public that there are two kinds of entities or individuals who could mislead the public in investing in rare earth companies. First there are the so-called "professors". These individuals have the knowledge of the words and the description of geographic potentials, what is considered rare earth or related companies. These people make speeches, write articles, and represent a psychological myth that their expertise could lead the listeners and the subscribers to sizable amounts of money. Nothing can be further from the truth. Even the most accomplished so-called professors have no knowledge of the stock market.

The second group is widespread, the so-called IR people, formerly called public relations, who ask for usually $5,000 a month to update the investors and stockholders of a particular company. They usually have no knowledge whatsoever of investments, no knowledge whatsoever of the industry, and their actual knowledge is a personal interpretation of published information of the companies concerned whose daily activities they reproduce on fancy stationery. They are the ones who are in touch with the public without any real investment background. Again, I want to remind the public that this communication can be misleading. IR people sit in an office, have a mailing list, and call anybody whose name somehow or another falls into their hands and reproduce like parrots what is on the Internet with a hint that the companies they represent have very great investment interest.

Since rare earth companies fluctuate or have fluctuated so far, more than almost any investment group, again the public is reminded that self-appointed experts under the guise of investor relations has only one duty, to pump a stock regardless of merit, regardless of changes. The rare earth industry will have many changes in the next few years, and consequently communication about the stock by a paid IR person can be misleading.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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"Aero Mechanical Services, Ltd"
Posted November 17, 2006

"This Year I"m Voting For Dick Nixon"
Posted November 7, 2006

"Global Options
Group, Inc."

Posted November 1, 2006

"The Arrival of the
Nickel Billionaires"

Posted October 18, 2006

"The Kennedy-Nixon debate revisited"
Posted October 4, 2006

"Brilliant Mining Corp."
Posted September 17, 2006

"A Matter of Reasonable Doubt"
Ken Lay - Enron

Posted August 30, 2006

"Silver Wheaton - SLW"
Posted August 28, 2006 

"Silver In The
Twenty-First Century"

Posted August 16, 2006

"The Age of Mediocrity"
Posted July 19, 2006

"Let There Be Sunshine"
Kirk Kerkorian

Posted July 12, 2006

"Oil & Gas
Energy Crisis Solution"

Posted July 3, 2006

"I Am An Immigrant!"
Posted June 7, 2006

"Northern Star
Mining Corp."

Posted May 19, 2006 

"Gateway Gold:
It"s A Gold Story"

Posted May 15, 2006

"Ken Lay's Legacy"
Posted May 8, 2006

"The Principal Guest Was Missing"
Posted April 25, 2006

"J.P. Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
Posted April 11, 2006

"Pocketful Of
Miracles"

Posted April 8, 2006 

"Midway Gold
Corporation
"
Posted March 23, 2006 

"Harvest Gold"
Posted March 2, 2006 
 
"Sparton Resources"
Posted March 1, 2006 

"Interview with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation
"
Posted February 22, 2006 

 
"A Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani
"
Posted February 15, 2006
 
"Your Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.

Posted February 9, 2006

"Other People"s Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
Posted January 28, 2006

"Northern Star Mining"
Posted January 16, 2006 
 
"Sonesta International Hotels Corporation"
Posted December 29, 2005 

"The Currency of Mass Destruction"
Posted December 5, 2005
 
"Bunker Hunt-Silver-China"
Posted November 28, 2005

"50 Relatives Worse Than Yours"
Posted November 14, 2005

"Then And Now"
Posted November 9, 2005 

"The Business of Hungary is Business!"
Posted October 31, 2005

"Mr. Prime Minister"
Posted October 13, 2005
 
"U.S. Gold Corp."
Posted September 29, 2005

"Orezone"
Posted September 23, 2005

"Mr Clarke -
Call In The Boys"

Posted September 12, 2005
 
"A Letter To
President Bush"

Posted September 8, 2005

"Mr. Smith Goes To Hungary"
Posted September 1, 2005
 
"Orko Gold"
Posted August 18, 2005

 "Near Hit"
Posted August 16, 2005

"An African Queen"
Posted August 11, 2005

"1848 and Beyond"
Posted August 4, 2005

 

 

Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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