BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Mongolian Prime Minister Sanj Bayar - A politician of the 21st century

July 15, 2009

A well-deserved
and
historically important
Nobel Prize

The Mongolian Prime Minister
Sanj Bayar
A politician of the 21st century

In his seventh book, President Richard Nixon declared the 20th century as a century of war. There were 130 wars in the 20th century, and 120 million people were killed. This is more than all the wars before 1900. Evolving events of the last 30 years were highlighted by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. In the last 60 years, the boundaries of major nations, of the historically known civilized nations, basically did not change. Actually, they have not changed since the Pottsdam conference of 1945 which were then confirmed by the 1975 Helsinki Accord.

The interesting part and pertinent part was the emergence of small countries becoming independent. It was followed by the greatest tragedy for the people involved.

  1. In 1952, President-elect Eisenhower could only end the Korean War by threatening the North Koreans with an atomic bomb. The Korean War broke out in 1949 when Kim Il Sung, hardly liberating his country from Japanese occupation, traveled several times to Moscow to ask Marshall Stalin's permission to attack South Korea, hardly a benefit to the North Korean people.

  2. Through various peace treaties in Paris and Pottsdam, Ho Chi Minh got some sort of an independence for Vietnam when his country was divided up between Russian and Western interests. A single war into which the West was drawn, ensued with at least two and a half million Vietnamese dying and the country was left in 1973 in total poverty.

  3. In 1959, Fidel Castro liberated Cuba. This was fifty years ago. The economic regression, the human tragedies, and the poverty of Cuba after fifty years of Castro, is anything but an example to the new nations.

  4. Between 1950 and 1960, twenty-three African countries became independent. In the famous television debate between Vice President Nixon and Senator Kennedy, the Vice President proudly said that twenty-three nations had gone independent during the Eisenhower/Nixon period, and not one of them went communist. That may be true, but the Congo of 1960, having liberated itself from Belgian rule, in the last ten years lost five million people because of a civil war.

  5. In 1979, the Ayatollah Khomeni marched into Iran. Between 1979 and the summer of 2009, the vast economic reserves of Iran had been used for international aggrandizement, threats of nuclear weapons, and only recently, a few days ago we saw on television that half of the Iranian people demonstrate against his rule. This is a somber background, too.

Keeping in mind the examples, a young country with less than three million inhabitants but occupying the sixth largest territory in the world, a country with vast historical importance, Mongolia became the subject of intense interest. Mongolia has natural resources beyond the dreams of almost any other country except perhaps South Africa, Russia, Canada or the U.S. It is estimated that the uranium, gold and copper reserves in Mongolia, if projected out for thirty years, would bring in a total revenue of over one trillion dollars. Considering that the country has only three million inhabitants, the number is vast and the opportunities and the horizon of prosperity can only be compared to the fortunes of Saudi Arabia or Kuwait.

Mongolia regained its independence from Russia and China twenty years ago. The Mongolians are very proud of that date. Their future and fortune, or rather future fortune, became evident when the world about five or eight years ago ran into a commodity shortage and it's predicted that in the next ten or twenty years, such commodity shortage would multiply the reserves of Mongolia.

Mongolia faced tremendous difficulties in the last three years. It was a country of no monetary reserves. It was a country of no serious alliances. It was a country without a strong infrastructure. It was a country without a powerful law enforcement agency, and it received tremendous offers and demands for its natural resources from outside sources.

The outcome of several years or negotiations, internal organization, led to a strong parliamentary system, regular elections, and an internal organization which enabled the Prime Minister and the political leadership to negotiate out the future of the country. Basically speaking, the issue was that if a country's gross national product is let us say $3 billion a year and it is indebted by almost a billion dollars, how could this country emerge to prosperity when five or ten years from now the GNP would reach $10 billion a year, the country will be debt free, and in the subsequent ten years, it can create a monetary base and monetary surplus as some of the countries in the Middle East have done.

Obviously, the countries most interested in the assets of Mongolia are the most powerful, countries: China, Russia, Australia, Canada and the United States. Mongolia certainly was a lesser country among equals. The prime minister created historically "A Grand Alliance". Negotiation became a drama between Mongolia and capitals like Beijing, London, Moscow and Toronto. In three years, negotiations replaced old agreements. The conflict between foreign companies and Mongolia has been negotiated in the most skillful manner. Actually, I would like to quote an expression, that it was the Mongolian politicians who spoke the language of the Harvard Business School and the Western companies had to pick up the language of diplomacy to cope with the Mongolian cabinet, the president, and particularly Prime Minister Sanj Bayar.

Mongolia did not become the unfinished symphony of Munich, where a country was sacrificed in 1938, whereas in 2009 the needs of the world order, Mongolian reserves, and Mongolian interests as well as the foreign interests, were put under the same umbrella.

The prime minister was different in 2009 from Mr. Neville Chamberlain in 1938. Prime Minister Sanj Bayar did not sign on the dotted line until the Grand Alliance between Mongolia, Mongolian reserves, foreign companies, foreign governments were properly put in place.

For a small country, Sanj Bayar negotiated with the skill of Metternich in the Congress of Vienna in 1915, Bismarck in Paris, and Churchill in the Second World War. The legacy of Sanj Bayar's Mongolian Grand Alliance will be a tremendous benefit to its country and benefit to the entire world.

We recommend Sanj Bayar for the Nobel Prize for nation building. In the previous examples, there was only one Nobel Prize given out to Dr. Henry Kissinger, Secretary of State of the United States and Lu Doc Tho, the chief spokesman for North Korea in Paris. None of them were very keen to accept the Nobel Prize. Their foresight of bloodshed after the negotiated peace was correct.

Sanj Bayar, if he receives the Nobel Prize, would well deserve it for being the Talleyrand of the Commodity Bank of the Far East. It may be given to him for his past achievements but cannot forget that Mongolia is the example to the current trouble spots in the world. They, too, could follow the Mongolian example and negotiate prosperity for their own people and peace with the rest of the world. North Korea and Iran are two countries which could take a lesson from Sanj Bayar. Combined they have 85 million people. Mongolia has three million.

Sanj Bayar's Grand Alliance is not only for the three million people of Mongolia. It is for the whole world. The prime ministers of Iran and North Korean could take a trip to Ulan Bator and instead of talking their own propaganda, they should ask the question of what they should do for their own country, their own people. If in the year 2009 the Nobel Prize is given to Sanj Bayar, in the years 2010 and 2011, the North Korean and the Iranian leaders should be humbled. Follow Mongolia!

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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