BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Interview With Mark Hazout - Silver Dragon Resources

June 24, 2010
 

(SDRG - OB 25¢ NY-OTC)

Price:

24¢

Price range:

$1.04 - 12¢

Shares outstanding:

94,000,000

Listing:

The company is in the process of getting listed on the TXS.

INTERVIEW WITH
MARC HAZOUT
SILVER DRAGON RESOURCES

Q:   The first question is since you have a pure silver company, how do feel about how silver is moving in this unusual market when gold is up 20 points a day and every newspaper is filled up with gold? Silver is not mentioned.

A:   The reason for that is...my confidence lies in a different perspective. That is that silver is shifting from not just simply being a precious metal but becoming an industrial metal, whereas gold, the reason for that is that gold is a storage of wealth. There aren't too many real applications for gold. So my confidence lies in the fact that silver is shifting because of all the new spectrum of applications for silver, and China is driving that demand. They have an insatiable appetite, with an economy that's growing year over year. So there's no doubt in my mind that at some point silver will break out just from simple supply and demand economics.

Silver may surge to as much as $23 an ounce next year, the highest price since 1980, as investors seek a cheap alternative to gold and a global economic recovery boosts industrial demand, according to Commerzbank AG.

The metal may advance to as much as $21 an ounce by the end of this year. The metal "gold's little brother." Compared with gold, silver may be considered low priced.

Gold surged and China's decision to drop the yuan's dollar peg boosted commodity prices. There's rising demand for silver, or "poor man's gold."

"Gold is still a priority for investors" who are looking for shelter from growing economic uncertainty, Ng Cheng Thye, a Singapore-based director at Standard Merchant Bank Ltd., said by phone today. There's also "a good chance for silver to rally higher," possibly to $20 an ounce, Ng said.

Weinberg's targets add to signs of increased investor interest in precious metals. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, have risen 15 percent in 2010 to a record 1,307.96 tons.

Europe's debt crisis was spurring demand.

"As with gold, silver is also considered to exhibit stabilizing characteristics when it comes to value," Weinberg wrote in yesterday's report. "Silver is reasonably priced compared to gold and constitutes a low-cost alternative."

The ratio between gold and silver had risen to about 65 compared with an average of 59 over the past "several years," the report said. "We expect this ratio to swing back, leading to potential for silver."

Silver sales would be boosted by an expected recovery of industrial demand, with the metal used in solar cells, mobile- phone covers and photography, the report said. Global demand may increase by as much as 50 million ounces by 2011.

Economic growth in China, already a net importer of silver, would also boost sales, Weinberg wrote. China's import demands are likely to increase, having a positive impact on the price.

Q:   Sales of silver coins are booming, and so are sales of gold coins. But there are no silver bars that people and buy on a major scale. At the same time, there is another big plus, namely the industrial applications. So what I'm really asking is is there a possibility that the current ratio between gold and silver, which is 67 and should be maybe 40-45, is there a possibility of a big upsurge in the price of silver?

A:   There's no doubt in my mind. Historically, and from biblical times, the ratio between gold and silver is 1:16. So at some point it needs to catch up. Either gold is coming down or silver is going to drastically go up.

Q:   So there is a potential surprise major movement.

A:   Absolutely.

Silver Prices Could Keep Rising

Silver may continue trading higher this week on bullish momentum indicators and an expected downslide in the dollar index. The dollar may drop on declining new home sales and durable goods orders.

Over the past week, silver July futures on Nymex gained 5.23% outperforming gold's 2.28% increase. The gold-silver ratio dropped to 65.59 from 67.48 as silver rose more than gold. Being a smaller market, the white metal tends to outperform the yellow metal on a percentage basis during the later stages of an economic slowdown. Gains in the euro over the past week indicate signs of easing debt concerns. Downgrade of Greece's debt rating to "junk" status did not have a negative impact as bonds were already trading at "junk" levels. Silver is anticipated to outperform gold this week as well.

Q:   You have a silver company actually splitting between two continents. Mexico was your first territory. Very briefly, can you describe the Mexican operation.

A:   Just for clarification, actually China was our first territory. China was the first territory, and the model was that at some point China would require assets, and Silver Dragon was formed as a vehicle also for the Chinese to backdoor assets outside of China. Mexico was chosen because Mexico is the number one silver producer in the world, and in terms of logistics our mine is only a two and a half hour truck ride from the port where we deliver the concentrates from there to any port in China.

Q:   Let's jump a little bit. What are you assets and prospects in Mexico itself?

A:   In Mexico we have 1400 hectares. It's 43-101 compliant. At this point, we do believe it's a minimum of a 100-million-ounce deposit. There's tremendous blue sky and exploration potential at the property. We've acquired a small mill. It's more of a test milling operation of 50 tons per day. That will generate some cash flow, but it's mostly for test milling.

Q:   When you say 100 million ounces of silver underground, it has been officially confirmed, what is the generally accepted valuation of such ownership?

A:   It depends on the matrixes that you use. But assuming that we use a 20% of in-ground, in situ value, then you multiply the ounces by the price of silver, without including, of course, the silver equivalent or any other credits, zinc or lead, whatever that may be. Twenty percent of that is a fair value for the assets.

Q:   That would be $20 million?

A:   No, it would be 100 million ounces times $18 an ounce, times 20%.

Q:   So it's about $60.

A:   You have 100 million ounces times $18 is $1.8 billion times 20%. That's $360 million of value in the ground.

Q:   $360 million underground, and you have less than 100 million shares, so it's $3.60.

A:   That should be the case. Now, unfortunately today, in today's marketplace, companies are trading at 50-60¢ an ounce, which should not be the case, in terms of market cap.

Q:   If it's still 50¢, then it's $1.80 million.

A:   That's correct.

Q:   And the stock is selling at 24¢

Estimated Production

$100M

Multiplier: 18

1,800

20%

360M

Shares - 100,000,000

$3.60

Current price

24¢

A:   Correct.

Q:   There are many companies in Mexico trying to find silver. Correct?

A:   That is correct.

Q:   And I presume their valuation is probably plus or minus what you have.

A:   That is correct.

Q:   If there is a major re-evaluation of silver in the marketplace, and obviously prices will go up, then at 24¢ versus $1.80, the gap is going to be less and you get a totally different valuation for the whole company.

A:   That is correct.

Q:   Of course, you are expanding in Mexico.

A:   We are expanding in Mexico, yes.

Q:   So two years from now the numbers will be much bigger than today.

A:   That is correct.

Q:   Of course, the current situation still makes the stock cheap. Let's go to China, because people don't understand it and it has very big potential. What is your Chinese operation?

A:   In China, Silver Dragon is a 40% equity owner. We have an equity interest in Sino-Top Resources. Sino-Top Resources is a foreign joint venture, and it holds the license, the expiration and mining rights to six properties, a total of approximately 300 square kilometers of property. Of those six properties, there are two flagship properties, Laopandao and Dadi. Dadi is now 43-101 compliant, 55 million ounces, and the second 43-101, Laopandao, is expected this summer. We're visiting China next month with our QP, David Yuan and Dr. Cargo, who are writing the 43-101. And it is the company's objective to continue to convert the existing Chinese resource calculations to 43-101 compliant members and increasing the net asset value.

Now, the Dadi property, which is the most interesting property, is the award-winning property. We won the Developer & Explorer of the Year for that property at China Mining 2009. This can turn out to be one of the largest silver mines in China. Our operating partner is Shengda. They are the largest operator of silver mines in China. They actually own and operate the [Barendabo] which is adjacent to our properties, that is a 3,000-ton-per-day operation, 8 million ounces a year. Our other partner is state-owned, the North China Geological Bureau. As a matter of fact, that bureau, state-owned, owns 10% of the outstanding shares of Silver Dragon.

Q:   These Chinese properties, you own 40%.

A:   That is correct. Of the six properties. Then we own 70% of one operating mine, the Erbahuo silver mine. That is 43-101 compliant. It is a small resource, but we've received a mining license for 80,000 tons a year. We haven't made a final corporate decision on if we're proceeding with production of that particular asset or monetizing the asset.

Q:   How much do you think currently the 100% Chinese interest in the six properties is worth?

A:   According to Chinese standard of calculation, there's 600 million ounces on those six properties.

Q:   Of which, let's say, 40% would be yours.

A:   That is correct.

Q:   So it's much bigger than the Mexican operation.

A:   Yes, absolutely.

Q:   So if the Mexican operation is worth $3.00 per share, the Chinese 40% is worth let's say $4.00 per share.

Mexican operation

$100M

China

1,800

40%

360M

50% foreign discount

$3.60

Net value

24¢

Total: 
Mexico
China
Total
3.60
4.00
7.60

A:   That is correct.

Q:   And the future is you bring the whole operation under your company's umbrella, or will there be some ownership change? What is the plan?

A:   The plan is first to list Silver Dragon on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and then to have the equity partners consider vending in their portion into the vehicle. There's 52% owned by Shengda Group, that's the operator, and 8% owned by H.I.C., which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the North China Geological Bureau. That is a state-owned bureau.

Q:   This 58% can be converted into--

A:   60%. 52% + 8%.

Q:   It can be converted into Silver Dragon.

A:   Yes. Equity of Silver Dragon. So that Silver Dragon on the TSX will own 100% of these properties that have a total area of 139 square kilometers.

Q:   When would this take place? When would it at least be possible to do it?

A:   Well, once we are listed on the TSX.

Q:   So two months from now?

A:   The application will be submitted in August, and then we would have to wait for the TSX's conditional listing approval. But we certainly expect to be listed before year-end.

Q:   So by the year end, you get listed, you have the whole operation, China, Mexico under one umbrella, approaching next year with let's say a billion ounces of silver in both properties. I understand the Chinese operation is $4.5 million cash surplus. And you may be raising money in Canada, too.

A:   That is correct. Once we're listed on the TSX, we will be looking at a full prospectus financing, simply because we're considering a central mill for the process of the properties, the Dadi and Laopandao will be put into production next year.

Q:   Cash flow then would be positive in the whole company.

A:   Absolutely.

Q:   In fact, meaningful cash flow.

A:   Absolutely. That is the company's objective. In the interim, to increase the net asset value of the company by converting the Chinese standard of resource calculations to 43-101 compliant, and to put the properties into production, Dadi and Laopandao, which are now in that stage. By the end of this exploration program, we will be ready for a full feasibility study. And the Chinese are very aggressive. They don't believe in banking studies. They simply go straight to production.

Q:   There is only one pure Chinese silver company in Canada.

SILVERCORP METALS
(SVM - NYSE)

Price

$7.00

Shares outstanding:

163,000,000

Market cap:

$1.14 billion

Revenue:

$107.6M

EBITDA:

66.27M

EPS

24¢

Book value

$1.33

A:   There are actually two. There's Silvercorp and there is Minko Silver. The third one is Silver Dragon.

Q:   I know Silvercorp. It has a market cap of $1 billion. It is a well-liked company. Everybody says that the market cap is big enough because of the potential of Chinese silver mining.

A:   That is correct. Their original property, the [ING] Project, was their original property. It was a high-grade property and they put that property into production, and that's where they are today and they're paying a dividend. But keep in mind, Silvercorp is probably five or six years older than Silver Dragon.

Q:   Silver Dragon today has a market cap of $24 million. The Chinese properties are meaningful and in the next two years, various mills and production will create a good cash flow. Meanwhile, the local Mexican part of your silver business can grow. When you have a target of $1 billion and you start with $24 million, then a person who would buy your stock tomorrow morning, if you put all these numbers together, you would say that many years ago Robert Friedland started Ivanhoe and today it has a $7 billion valuation. Robert McEwen started Goldcorp with $50 million and he sold that for $8.5 billion. I believe that the silver industry is ready for a Bunker Hunt type of run-up. If it happens, and meanwhile the company changes its features with both Chinese and Mexican, then we may be looking at a company with unusual potential. And in this current precious metal commodity age, Silver Dragon may deliver a very major surprise.

A:   There's no doubt. Let me just make one last comment. I think that there's no doubt that Silver Dragon is undervalued, and it is the objective of Silver Dragon to list on the TSX for two very specific reasons. Of course, the credibility issue, but more importantly, the institutional support and the ability to now disclose and announce the national instrument 43-101 compliance numbers. Because as a U.S.-listed company, we do not meet the foreign listing requirement and cannot put out those numbers. Once we're on the TSX, the institutions and the analysts will be able to do the numbers, do the math, and then say, well, my goodness, the net asset value of this company should be so much. Then that's where you'll see an up side in the market cap of the company.

Q:   Well, we start with 24 which could be a thousand. So that's not exactly a risk situation. All I can say on a personal level is that Bunker Hunt, thirty years ago, changed my life, and I want to thank you thirty years later for changing the Racz family's life.

A:   Thank you, Andrew. I really appreciate your support.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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