BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Silver Wheaton - SLW

August 28, 2006

TSX: SLW
NYSE: SLW

Price: $10.25

 

 

52-week:

 

Earnings per share

 

 

2005

 

 

2006E

44¢

 

 

2007E

1.00+

 

 Capitalization
 (As of June 30, 2006)

 


Long-term debt:

$15M

 

Silver contracts:

$545M

 

Shareholder's equity

$594M

 

 

 Shares outstanding
 220,176,000

 

SILVER WHEATON CORPORATION

When did the public become interested in silver for other than industrial and jewelry use?

Well, it really was 2004 where we began to start seeing renewed interest in investment demand. It was pretty mild. There wasn't really that much of it compared to manufacturing demand of silver, but that's really when it began to appear.

It's a continuously growing interest?

Over 2005, certainly the interest and investment demand increased substantially and through 2006 it's been very good as well, especially with the introduction of the silver ETF by Barclays has really brought silver back into the forefront of the precious metals industry.

It is estimated to absorb 130 million ounces of silver. I believe that they're registered to be able to hold 130 million ounces in the ETF, but I believe it's below that, just a little bit over 90 million to date that they have in the ETF at this point.

So far they took 90 million out of the market? And they intend to go to 130.

Well, they're registered at least go to 130 million, and as long as demand is there, I believe they plan on getting to that level.

Let us now determine the projected silver demand for 2006, total?

The projected silver demand for 2006 is expected to be over 900 million ounces, probably somewhere around 920 million ounces. Barclays expected to take out 15%, let's say 15% of the total demand for a single year. The price of silver rose from $6.45 in January, 2005 to $12.00 in August, 2006. This is pure investment demand, mainly from institutional investors. Offshore registration, two or three smaller ETF's, let's say with 25 million each, altogether 50, will be registered by the end of the year.

Silver
Demand - Supply

1990

472.5

539.1

2000

569.5

852.3

2004

610.3

800.9

2005

647.6

809.4

2006E

657.1

765.7

The Barclays ETF already represents a potential 130M ounces. Future trading is on a vast increase. The monetization of silver has only just begun.

This creates a climate for a major increase in price. A price of $20 per ounce is a possibility. I have heard rumors of other ETF's and there has been talk of other ETF's starting, both within North America and outside, but I don't really know the status of them. It can be done.

If it follows the route of gold ETF's, it certainly can be done. A number of gold ETF's have been introduced in 2003, and many of them have been introduced since then. Regulatory changes in the U.S. and Europe were encouraging funds to make larger allocations to ETFs. At the end of the first half there were 596 ETFs covering assets of $187.1B, managed by 64 managers on 36 exchanges. Some 136 ETFs were launched in the first half, compared with 119 in the whole of last year, while a small number have delisted.

The U.S., where ETFs were first launched in 1993, leads the way, with 275 ETFs covering $344.4B of assets. Europe, where ETFs were launched six years ago, has 216 ETFs with $71.3B.

So we are saying that a totally well-defined new element by the year 2009, when SLW is supposed to market 20 million ounces of silver. By 2009 there could be 250 million ounces in silver ETF's ten times the yearly production of Silver Wheaton, the world's largest silver producer.

SLW's Estimated Production Schedule

2005

10M ounces

2006

15M

2009

20.0M

Certainly investment demand has been growing significantly over the last two years, and if it does continue to grow, then certainly there's a possibility of rapidly increasing demand.

SLW's business is projected to produce with hard work, digging, marketing, 20 million ounces of silver in the year 2009 and let's say 20 million in the year 2010. That is 40 million. By then, financial users could have a hold on the market for 250 million ounces, which between 2006 and 2009 exerts a tremendous upward pressure on the market.

Certainly if the demand is there, the market must be very bullish and we think that the price of silver certainly is going to stay very strong and increase in price over those years, certainly.

I want to emphasize in this interview that I have in a relatively long professional life, relatively active life, never seen a respectable market where the following numbers are as compelling as silver in 2006. But 25% is allocated for new financial users who are not in the thousand, and would eat heavily into the supply side.

Well, it's difficult to say really what's going to happen. Certainly, the price as it is now is really determined by the demand that is out there. And the demand is really determined by the fundamentals of what investors are looking for and really what the manufacturing is using. So I can't forecast what's going to happen in the future, and we don't know, but certainly we can say that demand does drive the price of this commodity.

But you mentioned so far one factor, the silver ETF. President Bush signed some pension agreements. I don't understand it fully, but it would put 70 billion dollars in new money in pension funds. My wife works in a major foreign bank, and her pension can switch in and out between ten or fifteen different funds. Not one of them is a precious metals fund. If you add another 70 billion dollars to legitimate pensions, the price of silver is up because of just one factor - the ETF's. The likelihood is that in two years' time, all these pension funds would be permitted to switch into a precious metals fund, which means that the price of silver stocks is likely to go higher and not lower. Certainly if the demand is there then the price will go up.

Meanwhile, the whole world is crazy about future option trading. How in many markets in the world do you market silver futures?

There certainly are futures that are traded in a number of markets around the world. I do believe that Dubai has recently begun trading silver futures.

You know that one-third of the gold trading is likely to be at the end of the year in Dubai? I have heard certainly that there's a lot of trading done in Dubai. The Middle Eastern people have a very good track record of holding stocks or commodities as opposed to trading like the Americans. Therefore, they themselves will take out some silver from circulation.

There is some delivery in silver. Even a 5,000 ounce contract at $10 is only $50-60,000, so they can own it. Which is another positive factor. And the same applies to Shanghai.

Contracts exercised and delivered
at various price

1 contract: 5,000 ounces 

1 contract

 $10/ounce

$50,000 

10 contracts

 $12/ounce

$600,000

100 contracts

 $15/ounce

$7,500,000

1000 contracts

 $20/ounce

$100,000,000

Ten major players represent $1B, meaningful on the overall silver market.

Let me turn to another possibility. Eventually I believe that governments, agencies, corporations, will issue gold and silver-backed bonds. No, there was only one silver-backed bond issue in America. That was Sunshine Mining in 1980. I structured it. It was the biggest disaster I've ever done, but at least it existed. There is, however, no reason for any company to issue silver-backed bonds. However, any qualified silver producer can issue silver-backed bonds. There is no restriction on corporate silver-backed bonds.

So any company, your company, when you issue a silver-backed bond, it has to be backed by silver. And it has to be kept by the corporation in a certain recognized agent such as Merrill Lynch or Wells Fargo, etc.

So when XYZ Corporation issues lets say $100 million silver-backed bonds, and you would issue it if you pay very low interest and prices convertible at very attractive prices, let's say 4% silver-backed bonds convertible at $15 is a very attractive offering.

Now, the upshot of this, that when you issue that $100 million bond backed by... let's say 100 million ounces worth of silver deposited at Wells Fargo, that silver stays and is not thrown on the marketplace. So that takes away another 100 million from the available silver supply. Now what we described are all so far plausible steps, not taken today but which could be taken. Certainly those are all events that could be taken.

This is the environment in which we operate. The environment is very simple, but my theory is that it is simple today but could be bigger and other steps could be taken to make it more profitable, and certainly can be taken if the market itself becomes diversified and more popular.

Certainly. One of the things that we are hoping is going to happen with the market is that there's going to be more demand on all sorts of investment sides for silver.

The company has I think three basic contracts.

And three contracts enables you to buy silver at $3.90 and SLW is assured delivery for several years at various time lengths. And SLW has the right to market this silver on the open market. There is no hedging at all. We sell strictly at market prices when a delivery becomes available. It is a pure silver company, and wants to take advantage of any increases in the price of silver. In 2005, it produced just under 10 million ounces. In 2006, it anticipates producing approximately 15 million ounces.

Then 16.2 and it goes up to 20 in the year 2009. The corporation is anticipating a 33% growth rate from existing projects by 2009.

There is an initial payment, one-time payment SLW makes to begin the contracts. After SLW pays its partner that's mined it the $3.90 per ounce, then it takes ownership of it.

Then we ship it and sell it.

So the difference, let's say $12 today and let's say $4 purchase, which is $8, is the revenue of Silver Wheaton.

Certainly the revenue is going to be what the market pays. The operating cash flow really is whatever the difference is between the spot price of silver and $3.90

 

Q1/Q2
2006

Full year
2006

2007 Range

2009

Silver delivery
(million ounces)

4.7

15

16.2

18

20

Revenues

73

210

240

300

400

Cost of silver

25

60

65

72

80

Pre-tax

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

39

120

150

200

260+

Per share

15¢

50¢ 

8

9

1.15

The company has, with dilution, 220 million shares. And at the price of $10, that's just over $2.1 billion in market capitalization.

Then every day as the cycle moves, the cash flow becomes hundreds of millions of dollars
per anum.

The second quarter, SLW had only $50 million in cash. But certainly we are generating cash flow every month through our operations.

In other words, just to simplify, you have a 15 million market price for silver. If you sell it for an $8 difference, that's $120 million.

On an annualized basis, that's how much we would make with the $8 difference. 15 million ounces is $120 operating cash flow or 45¢ per share.

The basic overhead is clerical, I presume some operating overhead which is all simplified. You don't have a manufacturing plant.

No, it's a simple operation. We have very little overhead, especially for a company this size that has this type of revenue. It runs very smoothly.

So at the current price rate, at 2009 you will have $400 million in revenues.

If in 2009, with 20 million ounces of production, if we do have a $16 price differential in the price of silver and the $3.90 that we pay is the price that we're paying then, then certainly operating cash flow will be around $300 million.

Let's assume that if everything stays put at 20 million for five years, that would be one billion dollars cash in the company. Plus interest, plus the $50 million. So let's say over a billion, at a 20 million ounce rate in five years.

Accumulated Cash Flow

(Projected)

2005

 

$50M

$50M

2006-2007-2008-2009

 

$100 + 125 + 150 + 250 =

$625

2010 ------------------------------------------ 2014

1,000

Total

$1.675

Accumulated cash, excluding interest income

$6.40 per share

If those conditions are met, potentially yes.

If we assume that the mines which we are dealing with still have production, then the company has a $2 billion market cap, no real liability, small overhead, over $1 billion cash and the various contracts, which may bring in eventually another billion dollars.

This is a mathematical model, what I'm mentioned. If the price of silver goes to not $12 but $20, then in the scenario which we outline, SLW will have $2 billion in cash.

The commodity market is never peaceful. But what I'm saying is there is a mathematical model that at the current rate of contract production, that five years after 2009 included, you could accumulate $1.5 billion. And if the price of silver is $20, dollar for dollar for the market cap.

The company has as prime objective is today, really to try and complete more of these contracts for the future with other existing producing mines.

It all depends on the types of contracts or the types of potential contracts management is interested in doing. Our focus is to get contracts with already producing mines, and they can be of any size essentially, that are going to significantly increase Silver Wheaton's overall production.

In other words, SLW is going through the whole world, take a mine's silver by-products, certain conditions met, deals can be made. SLW would be increasing the business over and above the current contract.

What SLW has potentially is 20 million ounces out of a thousand million ounces yearly demand or yearly production. That's 2 percent of the world's total. Two percent is not 20 percent. So in other words, it is ten times bigger and still a small segment of the whole silver industry.

There are other companies that have tried something like it, but I don't think anybody has had the success that Wheaton silver has had. So basically Silver Wheaton is a unique company in an industry where the demand is likely to increase, the prices are likely to increase, and it is like a professional finance and delivery company, which is becoming acceptable in the world because everybody needs large functioning entities to deliver a product or a service.

It is basically a mining company. We do have geologic expertise within the company, and we do have intentions to grow to be the largest and the preeminent silver company in the world.

Lastly, let me look at one factor. At the early stage of the company and a large number of shares, the net income is going up rapidly but is still small. In the first half, you had $.19 cents versus $.07. So a full year at certain conditions may be $.50, and then you are growing production. So in two year's time on a two-year forecasted earnings which I have to calculate, the stock is very cheap.

I haven't taken a definite look at those numbers. It depends on how you evaluate that. But we do think that there is still value left in the company, and we think that our model really still does provide the best leverage to silver and to investors that are interested in silver and silver companies.

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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