|
BERAL,
INC.
Andrew G. Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, New York 10022
Telephone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail:
mlikar@aol.com
August
28, 2006
SILVER
WHEATON
TSX:
SLW
NYSE:
SLW
Price:
$10.25 |
|
|
52-week: |
|
Earnings
per share |
|
|
2005 |
9¢ |
|
|
2006E |
44¢ |
|
|
2007E |
1.00+ |
|
Capitalization
(As of June 30, 2006)
|
|
Long-term debt: |
$15M |
|
| Silver
contracts: |
$545M |
|
| Shareholder's
equity |
$594M |
|
| |
Shares outstanding
220,176,000
|
|
|
|
SILVER WHEATON CORPORATION |
|
When
did the public become interested in silver for other than
industrial and jewelry use?
Well, it really was 2004 where we began to start seeing renewed
interest in investment demand. It was pretty mild. There wasn't
really that much of it compared to manufacturing demand of
silver, but that's really when it began to appear.
It's a continuously growing interest?
Over 2005, certainly the interest and investment demand increased
substantially and through 2006 it's been very good as well,
especially with the introduction of the silver ETF by Barclays
has really brought silver back into the forefront of the precious
metals industry.
It is estimated to absorb 130 million ounces of silver. I
believe that they're registered to be able to hold 130 million
ounces in the ETF, but I believe it's below that, just a little
bit over 90 million to date that they have in the ETF at this
point.
So far they took 90 million out of the market? And they intend
to go to 130.
Well, they're registered at least go to 130 million, and as
long as demand is there, I believe they plan on getting to
that level.
Let us now determine the projected silver demand for 2006,
total?
The projected silver demand for 2006 is expected to be over
900 million ounces, probably somewhere around 920 million
ounces. Barclays expected to take out 15%, let's say 15% of
the total demand for a single year. The price of silver rose
from $6.45 in January, 2005 to $12.00 in August, 2006. This
is pure investment demand, mainly from institutional investors.
Offshore registration, two or three smaller ETF's, let's say
with 25 million each, altogether 50, will be registered by
the end of the year.
Silver
Demand - Supply
1990 |
472.5 |
539.1 |
2000 |
569.5 |
852.3 |
2004 |
610.3 |
800.9 |
2005 |
647.6 |
809.4 |
2006E |
657.1 |
765.7 |
|
The Barclays
ETF already represents a potential 130M ounces. Future trading
is on a vast increase. The monetization of silver has only
just begun.
This creates a climate for a major increase in price. A price
of $20 per ounce is a possibility. I have heard rumors of
other ETF's and there has been talk of other ETF's starting,
both within North America and outside, but I don't really
know the status of them. It can be done.
If it follows the route of gold ETF's, it certainly can be
done. A number of gold ETF's have been introduced in 2003,
and many of them have been introduced since then. Regulatory
changes in the U.S. and Europe were encouraging funds to make
larger allocations to ETFs. At the end of the first half there
were 596 ETFs covering assets of $187.1B, managed by 64 managers
on 36 exchanges. Some
136 ETFs were launched in the first half, compared with 119
in the whole of last year, while a small number have delisted.
The U.S., where ETFs were first launched in 1993, leads the
way, with 275 ETFs covering $344.4B of assets. Europe, where
ETFs were launched six years ago, has 216 ETFs with $71.3B.
So we are saying that a totally well-defined new element by
the year 2009, when SLW is supposed to market 20 million ounces
of silver. By 2009 there could be 250 million ounces in silver
ETF's ten times the yearly production of Silver Wheaton, the
world's largest silver producer.
SLW's
Estimated Production Schedule
2005 |
10M
ounces |
2006 |
15M |
2009 |
20.0M |
|
Certainly
investment demand has been growing significantly over the
last two years, and if it does continue to grow, then certainly
there's a possibility of rapidly increasing demand.
SLW's business is projected to produce with hard work, digging,
marketing, 20 million ounces of silver in the year 2009 and
let's say 20 million in the year 2010. That is 40 million.
By then, financial users could have a hold on the market for
250 million ounces, which between 2006 and 2009 exerts a tremendous
upward pressure on the market.
Certainly if the demand is there, the market must be very
bullish and we think that the price of silver certainly is
going to stay very strong and increase in price over those
years, certainly.
I want to emphasize in this interview that I have in a relatively
long professional life, relatively active life, never seen
a respectable market where the following numbers are as compelling
as silver in 2006. But 25% is allocated for new financial
users who are not in the thousand, and would eat heavily into
the supply side.
Well, it's difficult to say really what's going to happen.
Certainly, the price as it is now is really determined by
the demand that is out there. And the demand is really determined
by the fundamentals of what investors are looking for and
really what the manufacturing is using. So I can't forecast
what's going to happen in the future, and we don't know, but
certainly we can say that demand does drive the price of this
commodity.
But you mentioned so far one factor, the silver ETF. President
Bush signed some pension agreements. I don't understand it
fully, but it would put 70 billion dollars in new money in
pension funds. My wife works in a major foreign bank, and
her pension can switch in and out between ten or fifteen different
funds. Not one of them is a precious metals fund. If you add
another 70 billion dollars to legitimate pensions, the price
of silver is up because of just one factor - the ETF's. The
likelihood is that in two years' time, all these pension funds
would be permitted to switch into a precious metals fund,
which means that the price of silver stocks is likely to go
higher and not lower. Certainly if the demand is there then
the price will go up.
Meanwhile, the whole world is crazy about future option trading.
How in many markets in the world do you market silver futures?
There certainly are futures that are traded in a number of
markets around the world. I do believe that Dubai has recently
begun trading silver futures.
You know that one-third of the gold trading is likely to be
at the end of the year in Dubai? I have heard certainly that
there's a lot of trading done in Dubai. The Middle Eastern
people have a very good track record of holding stocks or
commodities as opposed to trading like the Americans. Therefore,
they themselves will take out some silver from circulation.
There is some delivery in silver. Even a 5,000 ounce contract
at $10 is only $50-60,000, so they can own it. Which is another
positive factor. And the same applies to Shanghai.
Contracts
exercised and delivered
at various price
1 contract: 5,000 ounces
1
contract |
$10/ounce |
$50,000 |
10
contracts |
$12/ounce |
$600,000 |
100
contracts |
$15/ounce |
$7,500,000 |
1000
contracts |
$20/ounce |
$100,000,000 |
|
Ten major
players represent $1B, meaningful on the overall silver market.
Let me turn to another possibility. Eventually I believe that
governments, agencies, corporations, will issue gold and silver-backed
bonds. No, there was only one silver-backed bond issue in
America. That was Sunshine Mining in 1980. I structured it.
It was the biggest disaster I've ever done, but at least it
existed. There is, however, no reason for any company to issue
silver-backed bonds. However, any qualified silver producer
can issue silver-backed bonds. There is no restriction on
corporate silver-backed bonds.
So any company, your company, when you issue a silver-backed
bond, it has to be backed by silver. And it has to be kept
by the corporation in a certain recognized agent such as Merrill
Lynch or Wells Fargo, etc.
So when XYZ Corporation issues lets say $100 million silver-backed
bonds, and you would issue it if you pay very low interest
and prices convertible at very attractive prices, let's say
4% silver-backed bonds convertible at $15 is a very attractive
offering.
Now, the upshot of this, that when you issue that $100 million
bond backed by... let's say 100 million ounces worth of silver
deposited at Wells Fargo, that silver stays and is not thrown
on the marketplace. So that takes away another 100 million
from the available silver supply. Now what we described are
all so far plausible steps, not taken today but which could
be taken. Certainly those are all events that could be taken.
This is the environment in which we operate. The environment
is very simple, but my theory is that it is simple today but
could be bigger and other steps could be taken to make it
more profitable, and certainly can be taken if the market
itself becomes diversified and more popular.
Certainly. One of the things that we are hoping is going to
happen with the market is that there's going to be more demand
on all sorts of investment sides for silver.
The company has I think three basic contracts.
And three contracts enables you to buy silver at $3.90 and
SLW is assured delivery for several years at various time
lengths. And SLW has the right to market this silver on the
open market. There is no hedging at all. We sell strictly
at market prices when a delivery becomes available. It is
a pure silver company, and wants to take advantage of any
increases in the price of silver. In
2005, it produced just under 10 million ounces. In 2006, it
anticipates producing approximately 15 million ounces.
Then 16.2 and it goes up to 20 in the year 2009. The corporation
is anticipating a 33% growth rate from existing projects by
2009.
There is an initial payment, one-time payment SLW makes to
begin the contracts. After SLW pays its partner that's mined
it the $3.90 per ounce, then it takes ownership of it.
Then we ship it and sell it.
So the difference, let's say $12 today and let's say $4 purchase,
which is $8, is the revenue of Silver Wheaton.
Certainly the revenue is going to be what the market pays.
The operating cash flow really is whatever the difference
is between the spot price of silver and $3.90
|
Q1/Q2
2006
|
Full
year
2006
|
2007
Range
|
2009 |
Silver
delivery
(million ounces) |
4.7 |
15 |
16.2 |
18 |
20 |
Revenues |
73 |
210 |
240 |
300 |
400 |
Cost
of silver |
25 |
60 |
65 |
72 |
80 |
Pre-tax |
|
|
|
|
|
Net
income |
39 |
120 |
150 |
200 |
260+ |
| Per
share |
15¢ |
50¢ |
85¢ |
95¢ |
1.15 |
|
The company
has, with dilution, 220 million shares. And at the price of
$10, that's just over $2.1 billion in market capitalization.
Then every day as the cycle moves, the cash flow becomes hundreds
of millions of dollars
per annum.
The second quarter, SLW had only $50 million in cash. But
certainly we are generating cash flow every month through
our operations.
In other words, just to simplify, you have a 15 million market
price for silver. If you sell it for an $8 difference, that's
$120 million.
On an annualized basis, that's how much we would make with
the $8 difference. 15 million ounces is $120 operating cash
flow or 45¢ per share.
The basic overhead is clerical, I presume some operating overhead
which is all simplified. You don't have a manufacturing plant.
No, it's a simple operation. We have very little overhead,
especially for a company this size that has this type of revenue.
It runs very smoothly.
So at the current price rate, at 2009 you will have $400 million
in revenues.
If in 2009, with 20 million ounces of production, if we do
have a $16 price differential in the price of silver and the
$3.90 that we pay is the price that we're paying then, then
certainly operating cash flow will be around $300 million.
Let's assume that if everything stays put at 20 million for
five years, that would be one billion dollars cash in the
company. Plus interest, plus the $50 million. So let's say
over a billion, at a 20 million ounce rate in five years.
Accumulated
Cash Flow
(Projected)
| 2005 |
|
|
| $50M |
|
$50M |
2006-2007-2008-2009 |
|
$100
+ 125 + 150 + 250 = |
$625 |
2010
------------------------------------------ 2014
|
1,000 |
Total |
$1.675 |
Accumulated
cash, excluding interest income $6.40
per share |
|
If those
conditions are met, potentially yes.
If we assume that the mines which we are dealing with still
have production, then the company has a $2 billion market
cap, no real liability, small overhead, over $1 billion cash
and the various contracts, which may bring in eventually another
billion dollars.
This is a mathematical model, what I'm mentioned. If the price
of silver goes to not $12 but $20, then in the scenario which
we outline, SLW will have $2 billion in cash.
The commodity market is never peaceful. But what I'm saying
is there is a mathematical model that at the current rate
of contract production, that five years after 2009 included,
you could accumulate $1.5 billion. And if the price of silver
is $20, dollar for dollar for the market cap.
The company has as prime objective is today, really to try
and complete more of these contracts for the future with other
existing producing mines.
It all depends on the types of contracts or the types of potential
contracts management is interested in doing. Our focus is
to get contracts with already producing mines, and they can
be of any size essentially, that are going to significantly
increase Silver Wheaton's overall production.
In other words, SLW is going through the whole world, take
a mine's silver by-products, certain conditions met, deals
can be made. SLW would be increasing the business over and
above the current contract.
What SLW has potentially is 20 million ounces out of a thousand
million ounces yearly demand or yearly production. That's
2 percent of the world's total. Two percent is not 20 percent.
So in other words, it is ten times bigger and still a small
segment of the whole silver industry.
There are other companies that have tried something like it,
but I don't think anybody has had the success that Wheaton
silver has had. So basically Silver Wheaton is a unique company
in an industry where the demand is likely to increase, the
prices are likely to increase, and it is like a professional
finance and delivery company, which is becoming acceptable
in the world because everybody needs large functioning entities
to deliver a product or a service.
It is basically a mining company. We do have geologic expertise
within the company, and we do have intentions to grow to be
the largest and the preeminent silver company in the world.
Lastly, let me look at one factor. At the early stage of the
company and a large number of shares, the net income is going
up rapidly but is still small. In the first half, you had
$.19 cents versus $.07. So a full year at certain conditions
may be $.50, and then you are growing production. So in two
year's time on a two-year forecasted earnings which I have
to calculate, the stock is very cheap.
I haven't taken a definite look at those numbers. It depends
on how you evaluate that. But we do think that there is still
value left in the company, and we think that our model really
still does provide the best leverage to silver and to investors
that are interested in silver and silver companies.
DISCLAIMER
Information
contained herein is based on data obtained from
recognized statistical services, issuers reports
or communications or other sources believed
to be reliable. However, such information has
not been verified by us and we do not make any
representation to its accuracy or completeness.
Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes
only current opinions which are subject to change.
BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts
or employees may have positions in the securities
or commodities referred to herein, and may as
principal or agent buy and sell such securities
or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer
or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director
for companies mentioned in this report. Neither
the information nor any comment expressed shall
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy any securities or commodities
mentioned herein. There may be instances when
fundamental, technical and competitive opinions
may not be in concert. This firm may from time
to time perform investment banking or other
services for or which investment banking or
other businesses from any company mentioned
in this report |
|
Andrew Racz

Dated: August 28, 2006
(Article
35 - posted August 28, 2006)
e-mail: mlikar@aol.com
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