BERAL, INC.
Andrew Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Silvermex Resources, Ltd

December 13, 2008 

(SMR - TSXV)

 

(C. $)

Price:

$0.14

Price range (2008):

$1.44 - $0.08

Shares outstanding:

29.6M

Market capitalization

$4.5M

Stockholders' equity

$3.8M

Silvermex Resources Ltd. was formed in 2005 and taken public in August of 2006 on the TSX Venture Exchange. The company's largest shareholder (12.5%) is Silver Standard Resources (NASDAQ: SSRI).

Silvermex's primary objective is to increase shareholder value through the discovery, acquisition, and development of near-surface, advanced-stage silver deposits in Mexico. The company holds an impressive 85,000 acres of mineral claims located in Mexico's most prolific silver producing regions.

Highlights include:

  • 42.7 million Oz silver resource (NI 43-101)
  • 240 million lbs of lead and zinc (NI 43-101)
  • 1.44 Oz silver resource per share
  • 648% resource growth in last 24 months 
  • High resource return on money raised 
  • Offers the most leverage within its peer group 
  • Offers the lowest market cap within its peer group
  • Lowest MCAP Value per Oz ($0.10 per Oz)
  • Superior leveraged exposure to silver prices
  • Near-surface, bulk-mineable projects
  • Proven management in Canada and Mexico

Silvermex is a junior silver resource company. The company has approximately 42.7 million ounces of silver. The resources have been prepared using CIM definitions for mineral resources as required by National Instrument 43-101. These resources are confirmed by an accounting standard but they are not yet advanced to production.

Silvermex has the smallest market cap of the junior silver companies that have established resources. It has a market cap of C. $4.5 million compared to $15 million for Silvercrest and $40 billion for Goldcorp.

See Table 1.

TABLE 1

Top 5 Official Gold Reserves

<---------------------------------- (tons) ---------------------------------->

Cash-Rich Countries

U.S.
$135

Germany
3440

IM2
3217

France
3025

Italy
2452

Japan
765

China
600

World

32,000 tons
1 billion oz.
$1 trillion

The countries with gold reserves are listed above. The largest is the United States with 8,100 tons of reserves.

The actual gold production going back to 1980 is impressive but we must keep in mind that in the last two years gold production remained steady and the actual production has been on decline.

Let us not look at the actual figures. In the Central Banks there are 32,000 tons of reserves with a corresponding value of $1,000,000,000,000, or $1 trillion at the price of $1,000.

For simplicity we have to create a table. Every ton of gold is equivalent to 32,150 troy ounces of gold and, accordingly. Table 2 shows the background material for future arguments.

TABLE 2 

Total World Mine Production

 


1980
1990
1996
2000
2002
2007

 

(Tons)
1000
1600
2100
2500
2400
2000

1 ton

32,150 troy oz.

$1000/oz.

$32,150,000

Total gold reserves

32,000 tons
1 billion ounces

$1 trillion in value

 

The current valuation of pure resource junior silver companies appears in Table 3.

TABLE 3

A LOW-PRICED EMERGING SILVER COMPANY

Company

Shares
Outstanding

Share
Price

Market
Cap

Silver
Ounces

Market
Cap/oz.

 Leverage
MC/Ag oz

Silvermex

28,850,000

$0.15

$ 4,477,500

42,700,000

$0.10

9.54

Minco Silver

32,000,000

$0.85

$ 27,200,000

159,000,000

$0.17

5.85

Aurcana

108,000,000

$0.09

$ 9,720,000

52,200,000

$0.19

5.37

Silvercrest

46,000,000

$0.30

$ 13,800,000

69,000,000

$0.20

5.00

Orko Silver

107,000,000

$0.37

$ 39,690,000

103,000,000

$0.38

2.80

Fortune Silver

85,000,000

$0.56

$ 47,600,000

90,000,000

$0.53

1.89

Great Panther

81,000,000

$0.25

$ 20,250,000

37,000,000

$0.55

1.83

Alexco Resources

35,800,000

$0.56

$ 20,048,000

17,900,000

$1.12

0.89

ECU Silver

243,000,000

$0.89

$ 216,270,000

161,000,000

$1.34

0.74

Endeavour Silver

49,000,000

$1.26

$ 61,740,000

44,000,000

$1.40

0.71

Mag Silver

49,000,000

$5.72

$ 280,280,000

116,000,000

$2.42

0.41

At the same time, based on the potential for expansion, the measure is the potential increase in the leverage of silver per share. What it amounts to is that the companies can expand rapidly.

The capitalization of the company is indicative of the leverage value. See Table 4.

TABLE 4

SHARE STRUCTURE 

Shares outstanding

29,600,000

 

 

Options outstanding

1,000,000
550,000
100,000

$0.30
$1.11
$0.96

$300,000.00
$610,500.00
$96,000.00

 

1,650,000

 

$1,006,500.00

Warrants outstanding

932,250
160,000
1,098,750
160,000
1,453,000
192,880

$1.00
$0.80
$1.25
$1.00
$1.25
$1.00

$932,250.00
$128,000.00
$1,373,437.50
$160,000.00
$1,816,250.00
$192,880.00

 

3,996,880

 

$4,602,817.50

Fully diluted

35,246,880

 

$5,609,317.50

Major shareholders
Management
Silver Standard Resources

7,000,000
3,500,000

24%
12%

 

Total

10,500,000

35.5%

 

52-week high/low

$1.44 to $0.08

 

 

The total number of shares outstanding is 29,600,000, of which management owns 7,000,000, an equivalent of 24%, and the giant Silver Standard with a market cap of $650 million owns 12%. Accordingly, 35.5% is closely held. Considering that the stock is selling at 14¢, a total of C. $4.5 million, it is important to notice that upon the exercise of options and warrants, $5.6 million would accrue to the company. In other words, its total potential cash on the exercise of the various instruments is greater than the current market value of the company.

As we mentioned earlier, the company offers high leveraged exposure to silver in terms of realizable value. This being the case, with additional capital the company could increase its silver value and if this leads to an increased price. The exercise of options and warrants, a cash input of $5.6 million would increase the value of the stock quite rapidly.

What it amounts to is that a company with 42.7 million NI43-101 resources would stand very intriguing in a rising silver market. Built on the capital raised so far, every dollar invested has created 4.7 ounces of silver. The fully diluted cost per results is only 15¢ an ounce.

The most obvious question that comes into the fore is the price of silver. If we are talking about a 30 million share company whose current value is $4.5 million, and whose silver resources can grow from 42.7 million to 100 million, we must consider the facts about the company by the silver price. At $0.15 per share the company’s 42.7 million ounces of silver is currently being valued at only $0.10 per ounce. With a potential to reach 100 million ounces identifiable silver, the pertinent market cap may be $10 to $150 million. Since the ratio of the cost of mining and identifying silver is highly leveraged, the evaluation of the company basically boils down to the price of silver, the success of further realization of silver potential, and the cost of capital and the size of capital that the company has to raise.

Silvermex has raised $9.1 million, which translates to 4.7 ounces of silver for every dollar raised. In additional, $10 million would at least double the silver exposure and at a higher price taking into consideration the cost of capital, the valuation would increase substantially. With 30,000,000 shares outstanding, the current picture is as follows.

In October, 2008, the measured, indicated and inferred resources totaled 42.7 million ozs silver, 71.4 million lbs lead, and 152 million lbs zinc. A summary of the various resources is reflected in Table 5.

As disclosed in news releases dated October 9, October 14 and October 15, 2008, the updated NI 43-101 silver resources (ozs) per project are as follows:

TABLE 5

Category

San Marcial

La Frazada

Penasco Quemado

Totals

Measured:

0

2,615,493

2,591,752

5,207,245

Indicated:

18,021,221

2,156,335

7,468,166

27,645,722

Total M&I:

18,021,221

4,771,828

10,059,918

32,852,967

Inferred:

4,371,018

4,132,520

1,366,749

9,870,287

The updated resources per metal are as follows:

Category

Silver (oz.)

Gold (oz.)

Lead (lbs)

Zinc (lbs)

Measured:

5,207,245

1,797

5,657,445

15,834,150

Indicated:

27,645,722

1,264

35,230,132

71,123,399

Total (M&I):

32,852,967

3,061

40,887,577

86,957,549

Inferred:

9,870,287

2,231

30,054,276

65,499,878

As indicated by the table above, measured and indicated resources represent 77% of total resources.

Let us not forget that in the early part of 2008, in the so-called commodity boom, silver almost hit the price of $20. Looking at the market for silver, we see a total production and distribution of 43.554 million troy ounces. A more detailed breakdown of disposition is as follows.

There is, however, an unusual factor that came into the picture. Because of the financial crisis, which affects the whole world, silver companies and mining companies declined as much as 80-90%. Silver mistakenly is being considered now just like any other metal, like nickel and copper. It is no longer buried in the day-to-day financial press, understanding that silver is in many ways a monetary metal.

In this year, the demand and the purchase of silver coins increased many fold. Whereas coins amounted to 578 million ounces in 2007, in the current year the number is between 2,000 and 3,000 million ounces. Furthermore, coin purchase is worldwide. Just as in the 21st century five billion people are working, we also have five billion savers who have abandoned the stock market and acquired silver coins which are selling sometimes at 30, 50 or even 100% premiums.

A less pronounced trend established itself for silver bullion, whose total consumption in 2007 was 464 million ounces. In other words, the combined one million bullion and coin purchases in 2007 may be reaching 4,000 to 5,000 in 2008. Furthermore, this figure is unlikely to decline in 2009, as investors all over the world have been flying from paper currency. Combined on a 5-year basis -- bullion and coin purchase can reach $25-30 million ounces; 50% of a yearly silver consumption. At a $10 silver price, $300,000,000 is 15% of the total value of the hedge funds.

The following table gives a range for silver prices over the last ten years. Because of the consistent deficit in the silver supply/demand equation, the price of silver after 1990-91 increased from $5 to almost $19 in the early part of 2008.

None of these factors indicate that the so-called supply from government sales have been gradually declining and a new factor, namely the various silver ETF's, have begun to accumulate silver on a very large scale. In 2006, investors bought 121.1 million ounces of silver through Silver Trust. They added 4.6 million ounces in 2007. Two other silver ETF's were launched in 2007, one in London and one in Zurich, Switzerland. By the end of 2007, ETF's held 230.0 million ounces of silver, including the Zurich and the Central Fund of Canada 4.3 million ounces.

We go to great extent to describe the vast deficit in the traditional silver market and emphasize the new financial territories, namely bullion purchases, ETF's and coin purchases on the horizon. We are doing this because altogether we see that the accumulation of the financial interest is creating slowly such a shortage that in a so-called change in psychology, the price of silver cannot only advance to $15 but even to $20 an ounce. This is happening because silver is becoming a monetary metal. Being a monetary metal is not the definition of conventional media. Silver is a monetary metal for one reason: People are buying it for monetary purposes.

If this is changing, there is a very legitimate, although far-fetched comparison, when the value of a commodity, namely silver, changes. In 1973, the Saudi Arabian oil minister, Sheik Yamani, said on American television, "Gentlemen, the era of cheap energy is over." I was lucky to sit next to the late Secretary of the Treasury Simon, who in December 1974, when gold was legalized by Congress, hit the table saying, "It is high time we put gold on the commodity pages next to pork bellies, because that is where it belongs."

Both Sheik Yamani and Secretary Simon were right. Silver is on the commodity pages next to pork bellies, and that is where it belongs.

For various reasons which I don't want to elaborate on, there are theories which I support that the price of gold will go to $2,000 from $730 today. This week an article in Barron's indicated that when two to three trillion in cash is launched on the open market, the price of gold, the main precious metal, is likely to hit sometime $1,500. Today on December 7, 2008, President-elect Obama said that he will inherit for this year a one trillion dollar deficit, upon which he has to build a further deficit to put the economy in order. This caters well for gold and caters for silver. See page 3 of "Gold at 2000."

Undoubtedly, if gold could head towards $2,000, silver is headed towards $20.

The question of financing

If we agree to the theories that I have advocated in the previous pages, we have to turn now to the task of monetizing a small $4.5 million market cap company with relatively good reserves and reserve potential and corporate connections, in anticipation of a much higher silver market.

I consider first the conventional financing. The stock is $0.15, we create a unit of $0.15 price with 20¢ warrants or half warrants. To put forward such a financing is what is called a conventional way of thinking, and really has to fight its way through the system. Silvermex is considering a novel type of financing whereby they tie together a common stock at 15¢, warrants say at 20¢, and a certain amount of silver, let's say a dollar value in a unit. Experimenting with such a configuration has to be done privately so people can understand it. In the following table I indicate what would happen to such a unit if the stock goes from 15¢ to 20¢, and the price of silver goes from $9.50 to $11.

Obviously, the price increase of the unit is quite rapid. Furthermore, if we foresee a major change in precious metal pricing, the stock will go to 25¢, the warrant will bring in 5¢, and the price of silver will go to $12.

The advantage of such financing and its monitoring on a daily basis is important because we are breaking a market which was totally inactive for most silver companies, and creating a vehicle which can actually increase in price.

There are other benefits. If such a private placement unit is monitored, it can be publicized on a daily basis and indicate the success of a financing technique. We can add an additional feature that Silvermex has the right to buy out the unit any time for 10% above it's privately evaluated price. In that case, Silvermex would gain all the value of the silver and have basically completed a successful financing for cash.

If such transaction is successful, a little bit more complicated picture can be put together and application can be made to list the unit on the venture exchange. We have information that such application could be favorably considered.

A public financing, because of the demand and the picture of the private placement, may bring in not $2 million but $5 million, and suddenly the whole future of Silvermex could change. After all, of the previously printed junior silver mines, not one of them completed a $5 million financing, and as such, with a unique feature, would put Silvermex into a winning top category.

All in all, we are in a new century, in the 21st century. I subscribe to the view that silver is a monetary metal. I subscribe to the view that after the trillion dollar deficit of the United States alone in 2008, the international financial world is going to use everything, including gold and silver and gold and silver-related papers, to raise capital and pay off debt.

If we are right, Silvermex can join together new exploration, higher silver resources, modern financing, liquid assets, and become a different company. We live in the 21st century. What applies Silvermex on the positive side should also apply to General Motors.

TABLE 6

Year-End 2007 Total =
43,554 Million Troy Ounces

Estimated Disposition
(Million Troy Ounces)

Silver bullion and coins:

 

Bullion

464

Coins

578

Subtotal

1,042

Jewelry, Decorative & Religious Objects

20,461

Industrial use, undetermined or lost

22,051

Total

43,554

Disclaimer

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuers reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us and we do not make any representation to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinions which are subject to change. BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts or employees may have positions in the securities or commodities referred to herein, and may as principal or agent buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any comment expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. There may be instances when fundamental, technical and competitive opinions may not be in concert. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for or which investment banking or other businesses from any company mentioned in this report.

 

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"Ken Lay's Legacy"
Posted May 8, 2006

"The Principal Guest Was Missing"
Posted April 25, 2006

"J.P. Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
Posted April 11, 2006

"Pocketful Of
Miracles"

Posted April 8, 2006 

"Midway Gold
Corporation
"
Posted March 23, 2006 

"Harvest Gold"
Posted March 2, 2006 
 
"Sparton Resources"
Posted March 1, 2006 

"Interview with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation
"
Posted February 22, 2006 

 
"A Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani
"
Posted February 15, 2006
 
"Your Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.

Posted February 9, 2006

"Other People"s Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
Posted January 28, 2006

"Northern Star Mining"
Posted January 16, 2006 
 
"Sonesta International Hotels Corporation"
Posted December 29, 2005 

"The Currency of Mass Destruction"
Posted December 5, 2005
 
"Bunker Hunt-Silver-China"
Posted November 28, 2005

"50 Relatives Worse Than Yours"
Posted November 14, 2005

"Then And Now"
Posted November 9, 2005 

"The Business of Hungary is Business!"
Posted October 31, 2005

"Mr. Prime Minister"
Posted October 13, 2005
 
"U.S. Gold Corp."
Posted September 29, 2005

"Orezone"
Posted September 23, 2005

"Mr Clarke -
Call In The Boys"

Posted September 12, 2005
 
"A Letter To
President Bush"

Posted September 8, 2005

"Mr. Smith Goes To Hungary"
Posted September 1, 2005
 
"Orko Gold"
Posted August 18, 2005

 "Near Hit"
Posted August 16, 2005

"An African Queen"
Posted August 11, 2005

"1848 and Beyond"
Posted August 4, 2005

 

 

Andrew Racz. 300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C, New York, NY 10022
Phone: (212) 319-6949 Fax: (212) 753-1944. E-mail: mlikar@aol.com

Copyright © 2011 Andrew Racz. All Rights Reserved.

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