"1848 and
Beyond"
posted
August 4, 2005
"An
African Queen"
posted August 11, 2005
"Near Hit"
posted August 16, 2005
"Orko
Gold"
posted August 18, 2005
"Mr.
Smith Goes To Hungary"
posted September 1, 2005
"A
Letter To
President Bush"
posted September 8, 2005
"Mr
Clarke -
Call In The Boys"
posted September 12, 2005
"Orezone"
posted September 23, 2005
"U.S.
Gold Corp."
posted September 29, 2005
"Mr.
Prime Minister"
posted October 13, 2005
"The
Business of Hungary is Business!"
posted October 31, 2005
"Then
And Now"
posted November 9, 2005
"50
Relatives Worse Than Yours"
posted November 14, 2005
"Bunker
Hunt-Silver-China"
posted November 28, 2005
"The
Currency of Mass Destruction"
posted December 5, 2005
"Sonesta
International Hotels Corporation"
posted December 29, 2005
"Northern
Star Mining"
posted January 16, 2006
"Other
People"s Money -Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq."
posted January 28, 2006
"Your
Money Is Not Yours"
-Enron & Martin Siegel, Esq.
posted February 9, 2006
"A
Tribute to
Rudy Giuliani"
posted February 15, 2006
"Interview
with
Robert McEwen-
U.S. Gold Corporation"
posted February 22, 2006
"Sparton
Resources"
posted March 1, 2006
"Harvest
Gold"
posted March 2, 2006
"Midway
Gold
Corporation"
posted March 23, 2006
"Pocketful
Of
Miracles"
posted April 8, 2006
"J.P.
Morgan Offers Advice To Ken Lay"
posted April 11, 2006
"The
Principal Guest Was Missing"
posted April 25, 2006
"Ken
Lay"s Legacy"
posted May 8, 2006
"Gateway
Gold:
It"s A Gold Story"
posted May 15, 2006
"Northern
Star
Mining Corp."
posted May 19, 2006
"I
Am An Immigrant!"
posted June 7, 2006
"Oil
& Gas
Energy Crisis Solution"
posted July 3, 2006
"Let
There Be Sunshine" -
Kirk Kerkorian
posted July 12, 2006
"The
Age of Mediocrity"
posted July 19, 2006
"Silver
In The
Twenty-First Century"
posted August 16, 2006
"Silver
Wheaton - SLW"
posted August 28, 2006
"A
Matter of Reasonable Doubt"
Ken Lay - Enron
posted August 30, 2006
"Brilliant
Mining Corp."
posted September 17, 2006
"The
Kennedy-Nixon debate revisited"
posted October 4, 2006
"The
Arrival of the
Nickel Billionaires"
posted October 18, 2006
"Global
Options
Group, Inc."
posted November 1, 2006
"This
Year I"m Voting For Dick Nixon"
posted November 7, 2006
"Aero
Mechanical Services, Ltd"
posted November 17, 2006
"Entrée
Gold Inc."
posted December 13, 2006
"WisdomTree
Investments, Inc."
posted December 26, 2006
"My
Father Died In Auschwitz"
posted January 19, 2007
"Lexam
Exploration, Inc."
posted February 11, 2007
"Robert
Friedland -
The Man of The Year"
posted February 21, 2007
"Rubicon
Minerals Corp."
posted March 1, 2007
"Warren
Buffett - Franklin Roosevelt"
posted March 15, 2007
"Golden
Valley Mines, Ltd"
posted April 21, 2007
"Brilliant
Mining Corp."
posted May 22, 2007
"Bayswater
Uranium Corp."
posted May 30, 2007
"Ghengis
Kahn Was Hungarian"
posted May 31, 2007
"Portal
Resources"
posted June 12, 2007
"Aldershot
Resources Ltd."
posted July 16, 2007
"Entrée
Gold Inc."
Follow Up Report #1
posted July 24, 2007
"The
Age of Special "Corporate" Relationships"
posted August 23, 2007
"Interview
with
David Hjerpe - Newmac Resources, Inc."
posted August 27, 2007
"Interview
with
Jim Davis - President of Leeward Capital Corporation"
posted September 4, 2007
"Interview
with Professor William Pfaffenberger - Torch River
Resources"
posted September 22, 2007
"Ghengis
Kahn Returns"
posted September 27, 2007
"Jasper
Mining Corporation"
posted September 27, 2007
"Gold
Indexed Bonds"
posted October 11, 2007
"Tagish
Lake Gold Corp."
posted November 1, 2007
"Stalin
& Chavez"
posted November 9, 2007
"Sanj
Bayar -
The Prime Minister of Mongolia"
posted November 15, 2007
"The
Mongolian Wakeup Call"
posted November 16, 2007
"Watergate
Saved Nixon's Life"
posted November 28, 2007
"No
More Munich -
The Mongolian Version of 1938"
posted December 11, 2007
"Sir,
Do Not Abdicate"
posted December 27, 2007
"Mongolian
Gold"
posted January 8, 2008
"The
Unexpected
Mongolian Dilemma"
posted February 2, 2008
"Entrée
Gold, Inc"
posted February 11, 2008
"Gold
At 2000!!"
posted February 14, 2008
"Warren
Buffett Receives A Call From Franklin Roosevelt"
posted February 19, 2008
"Tanzania
Gold - Douglas Lake Minerals - Harp Sangha"
posted February 21, 2008
"Olympus
Pacific Minerals, Inc."
posted February 28, 2008
"Prime
Minister Sanj Bayar of Mongolia Receives The Nobel
Peace Prize"
posted March 17, 2008
"The
Mongolian Manifesto"
posted April 4, 2008
"Letter
to Prime Minister of Mongolia"
posted April 24, 2008
"Altek
Power Corp."
posted April 27, 2008
"Judy
Garland &
The Subprime Crisis"
posted April 29, 2008
|
|
BERAL,
INC.
Andrew G. Racz
Director of Research
300 East 54 Street, Suite 26C
New York, New York 10022
Telephone: (212) 319-6949
Fax: (212) 753-1944
E-mail:
mlikar@aol.com
May
12, 2008
WESTERN
POTASH CORP.
(WPX
– VSE)
| |
Price:
|
$1.00 |
| |
Price
Range: |
$1.22
- 91¢ |
This company went public on
May 6, 2008.
Shares offered: 46,000,000
Debt:
-0-
|
Conclusion |
Undoubtedly, many factors depend on
management. Their knowledge of the industry and their
contacts with the related fields cannot at this stage
be measured. However, if their attitude towards the industry
is constructive, then this small company, Western Potash,
with less than $100 million market cap, in contrast to
POT, whose market value is $60 billion, offers the most
leveraged but positive participation for the fertilizer
industry. I hope history will confirm that the judgment
of this scenario is affirmative.
Conclusion
and Conceptual Recommendation |
Western Potash (IPX.V) may turn out to be an unusual,
highly speculative, but intriguing way to play the fertilizer
industry.
Approximately 95% of all potash produced
is used for agricultural fertilizer. Global population
and income growth are driven by food demand and therefore
fertilizer usage. Particularly in the developing world,
increased consumption of meat requires large amounts of
grain which require fertilizers. The world’s arable
land per capita if anything declines.
The USDA report of May 10, 2008 is expected
to show that, over all, the world grain supply/demand
balance will remain in a deficit for 2008, which is bullish
for future fertilizer demand.
Inventories of key crops are shrinking.
1. Barley dropped in inventory from 4 million metric tons
in 1990 to 2 million in 1995.
2. Rice dropped from 150 million metric tons to 80 million.
3. Corn dropped from 200 million metric tons to 100 million.
Sharply rising prices pose problems
for many millions except farmers. For instance, dairy
product prices have increased from $2000 for a metric
ton in 2006 to $5000 a metric ton in 2008.
The 21st century has changed the profile
of our lives. The world’s population and their respective
prosperity created a world where the standard of living
has changed with increased meat consumption.
Table:
World Meat Consumption |
|
Million
Tons |
1980 |
50 |
1990 |
70 |
2002 |
135 |
2015 |
175 |
2030 |
250 |
Table:
Grain Required for Meat Production |
|
Kg
of grain needed to produce 1 kg of meat
|
Poultry |
2 |
Pork |
4 |
Beef |
7 |
|
These numbers represent basically our entire lifestyle
except that the price of each agricultural commodity is
growing every year.
At the heart of these problems are fertilizer
prices, a commodity in limited supply and with limited
potential for practical expansion for the next 10 years.
Western Potash’s Strengths
In addition to the favorable industry trends, Western
Potash believes that the following strengths and factors
will help achieve its business goals:
Mining Friendly Jurisdiction with
Existing Infrastructure
Yearly production will be 9.7M tons in 2008, 12.7M for
2012, and 15.7M ton in 2015.
Western Potash (WPX) is the sole junior potash exploration
company with a project located in Manitoba and one of
only three companies, including BHP Billiton Limited and
Agrium Inc., focused on the area. Mining is Manitoba’s
second largest resource industry and as such, receives
significant government support. In 2007, Manitoba was
rated as having the best policy environment in the world
for mining by the Fraser Institute. Centrally located,
Manitoba is a key link in the mid-continent trade corridor.
It has excellent access to Asia and Europe through its
deep water port on Hudson’s Bay. The port of Churchill
is nautically closer to ports in Northern Europe and Russia
than any other port in Canada, and is a part of the closest
shipping route between North America and Asia. Manitoba’s
three rail connections to the U.S. Midwest provide ready
access to one of the world’s largest potash markets.
Properties in Established Potash
Producing Region
Western Potash’s property is located
on the Devonian Prairie Evaporite, one of the world’s
most prolific potash regions, which covers a significant
portion of southern Saskatchewan and extends into the
McAuley-Russell area of Western Manitoba.
Potash deposits in the prairie Evaporite are unique because
they typically have very consistent thickness and grade
across a wide lateral zone.
Due to the predictable and generally consistent nature
of potash deposits in the Prairie Evaporite, it is possible
to define a western Manitoba potash deposit with relatively
few drill holes supplemented by seismic coverage to establish
continuity between drill holes. For example, the production
decision for Potash Corp.’s Lanigan mine was based
on only 18 exploration drill holes and various seismic
surveys.
Potash Corp.’s Rocanville potash
mine, according to Potash Corp., one of the lowest-cost
potash production facilities in the world, with a mineral
reserve of 422 million tones grading 22.5% K2O, is located
25 km southwest from the centre of the Manitoba Potash
Property (13 km from the edge of the Manitoba Potash Property).
Historical drilling and seismic results on the Manitoba
Potash Property show promising geological results—analysis
of two drill holes, approximately 13 miles apart, has
thus far revealed intersections of 13.5 feet at 18% K2O
and 12.5 feet at 20% K2O. The Manitoba Potash Property
is also adjacent to properties held by BHP Billiton Limited
(164.67 million tones @ 24.5% K2O) and Agrium Inc. (750
million tones @ 21% K2O). See “The Manitoba Potash
Property—Introduction.”
Well Financed, Potash-Focused Public Company
Before giving effect to the Offering,
Western Potash has approximately $50M cash on its balance
sheet, increasing to approximately $70M, after the exercise
of warrants and options, subsequent to the closing of
the Offering. The strong cash position will allow the
Company to aggressively advance exploration of the Manitoba
Potash Property on an accelerated time frame. Accordingly,
the Company provides a unique opportunity to invest in
a nimble junior public enterprise focused solely on exploring
for potash in Manitoba.
Use of Proceeds
The net proceeds to the Company from the
Offering, after the payment of all costs in respect of
the Offering, are estimated to be $50M. The net proceeds
of the Offering together with the proceeds from prior
sales of Common Shares are expected to be used as follows:
| |
Maximum
Offering
|
Phase
I exploration program |
$ |
3,723,500 |
|
Phase
II exploration program (1) |
$ |
14,003,000 |
|
Administrative
costs |
$ |
• |
|
Unallocated
working capital |
$ |
• |
|
Total |
$ |
• |
|
| __________________________ |
|
|
|
| (1)
Contingent
on results of Phase I exploration program. |
|
The
Tiny Western Potash in the Total Picture
WPX has the second largest potash reserve in Manitoba.
Centrally located, Manitoba is a key link in the
mid continent trade with access to Asia and Europe.
It has first rate access to the United States with
rail concessions. The most important potash mines
are listed in the table below
Table
A: Saskatchewan Potash Mines
|
1. |
|
Vanscoy
– Agrium |
2. |
|
Cory
– PotashCorp. |
3. |
|
Patience
Lake – PotashCorp. |
4. |
|
Allan
– PotashCorp. |
5. |
|
Colonsay
– Mosaic |
6. |
|
Lanigan
– PotashCorp. |
7. |
|
Belle
Plain – Mosaic |
8. |
|
Esterhazy
K1 – Mosaic |
9. |
|
Esterhazy
K2 – Mosaic |
10. |
|
Rocanville
– PotashCorp. |
11. |
|
Burr*
- Athabasca Potash |
12. |
|
Jansen
Lake* - Anglo Potash |
|
* Potential mines subject to feasibility
and financing. |
While it would take 5 years to bring
WPX to commercial production, it is part and parcel
of the global picture. Estimated cost is $3.0 billion |
Table
B: Global Potash Fertilizer Use by Crop –
2006/2007
World
Potash Reserves
(Billions Tones K2O2, Percentage of Global Reserves)
|
The price of potash meanwhile is growing
rapidly. Effective June 1, 2008, the price range will
be between $150 to $175. A recently signed contract with
India was priced at $355, and with China at $400. Current
contracts for future delivery are priced at $725. In this
potash-inflated world, when we take into account the world’s
population grows, the conclusion must be reached that
unless 50-100% increase in arable land can be achieved,
the demand for current and future production can increase
dramatically.
World population was 2.5 billion in 1950,
6 billion in the year 2000, projected to reach 7 billion
in 2010, and 9 billion by 2050. The production forecast
for major producers appears in Table C.
Table
C: Potash Supply by Major Suppliers
|
Company |
Country |
2007 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2020 |
Potash
Corp. |
Canada |
9.0 |
10.4 |
12.0 |
14.5 |
15.1 |
Belarnskali |
Belarus |
8.3 |
8.3 |
8.8 |
8.8 |
8.8 |
Mosaic |
Canada |
7.2 |
7.2 |
7.5 |
8.2 |
8.8 |
Israel
Chemicals |
Israel |
5.4 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
Uarikali |
Russia |
5.0 |
4.8 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
4.5 |
|
I, we accept the theory that Western Potash
has arable potash-producing land, and we can assume that
in 5 years time it will produce potash, then the stock
is the depository of many positive—if hypothetical—factors.
There are various possibilities.
1. Any of the food hungry nations can buy into Western
Potash and provide capital for accelerated development.
2. Any of the large currently producing companies would
buy 100% of Western Potash simply to reproduce its reserve
position on the future.
3. The potash demand would value in the second or third
year the underlying potential for potash producing capability
of Western Potash, which means meaningful appreciation
of the stock price and the conversation of yet unissued
stock into cash.
Undoubtedly, many factors depend on management.
Their knowledge of the industry and their contacts with
the related fields cannot at this stage be measured. However,
if their attitude towards the industry is constructive,
then this small company, with $100 million market cap,
in contrast to potash corporations market value of $60
billion, offers the positive outlook the judgment of the
prospect in the affirmative.
(Article
85 - posted May 12, 2008)
DISCLAIMER
Information
contained herein is based on data obtained from
recognized statistical services, issuers reports
or communications or other sources believed
to be reliable. However, such information has
not been verified by us and we do not make any
representation to its accuracy or completeness.
Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes
only current opinions which are subject to change.
BERAL INC. or their officers, directors, analysts
or employees may have positions in the securities
or commodities referred to herein, and may as
principal or agent buy and sell such securities
or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer
or a director of BERAL INC. may serve as a director
for companies mentioned in this report. Neither
the information nor any comment expressed shall
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy any securities or commodities
mentioned herein. There may be instances when
fundamental, technical and competitive opinions
may not be in concert. This firm may from time
to time perform investment banking or other
services for or which investment banking or
other businesses from any company mentioned
in this report. |
|
e-mail: mlikar@aol.com
Home |
Biography | Links | Contact
All Content & Articles
of This Web Site
© 2005-2008 Andrew G.
Racz |